Protests against high fuel prices in Europe. The rise and fall of communism. The Roman Catholic Church. Privatization. The campaign to ban land mines. Keynesian economics. The emergence of the territorial state. The domino theory.
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Although these movements stem from diverse sources, all are examples of political contagion. Beginning in the Middle Ages, contagion helped spread the territorial state from Europe to the rest of the globe, bringing with it the infectious ideology of nationalism. Contagion occurred when Catholicism emerged from Rome and expanded worldwide, when a series of states embraced Keynesian economics in the aftermath of the Great Depression, and when the idea of privatizing state enterprises spread from then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's England to a host of other countries. During the Cold War, fear of contagion lay at the heart of the "domino theory," which predicted that a single communist victory would spark a wave of additional gains. And contagion is visible whenever an uprising in one country inspires the citizens of another to follow suit, whether it was Eastern Europe's successful revolt against Soviet rule in 1989, or the protests against rising fuel prices that swept through Western Europe in 2000.
The spread of political ideas and practices is not new. But as the flow of goods, money, people, and information renders national borders increasingly porous, many experts believe the potential for contagion is greater than ever. Optimists say these trends will accelerate the spread of democratic ideals, undermine authoritarian governments, and hasten the emergence of a more equitable world order. But pessimists worry that the permeability of state boundaries will facilitate the spread of extremist ideologies, enable dissident groups to coordinate their actions more effectively, and allow criminals, terrorists, and other unsavory types to spread trouble over wider areas. Those alarmed by U.S. hegemony also fear that globalization will facilitate the spread of American habits and institutions, thereby threatening weaker societies with cultural extinction.
Proponents of these diverging views share the belief that contagion is a powerful force in contemporary world politics. In fact, both those who fear contagion and those who embrace it are wont to exaggerate its impact. Although political contagion does occur -- sometimes with powerful effects -- the spread of political models is usually slower and less dramatic than optimists or pessimists expect. Fads get attention and may look powerful for a while, but most societies are still surprisingly resistant to outside influences.
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