Minority Report

Moviegoers who watched U.S. Marine recruiters aggressively target African-American teenagers with promises of music stardom in Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11 might have left theaters with the impression that minorities and the poor are doing a disproportionate amount of the fighting -- and dying -- in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Although it's true that African Americans make up a disproportionately large percentage of the U.S. armed forces, their share of fatalities in the war on terror, as of May 8, 2004, is approximately representative of the U.S. population. (See chart.) This paradox is explained in a comprehensive demographic survey of U.S. fatalities in the global war on terror by the Washington-based weekly National Journal. The survey found that African-American troops tend to concentrate in units that offer a chance to learn skills in fields such as mechanics and electronics, which easily carry over into civilian life. The soldiers in these units are less likely to be engaged in combat.

In contrast to African Americans, Hispanics are underrepresented in the U.S. military. Hispanics are more likely to drop out of high school than any other ethnic group in the United States, and the U.S. military requires all enlistees to have a high school diploma. The Hispanic percentage of the death toll, though, is only marginally smaller than that of Hispanics in the U.S. population as a whole.

Although the percentage of African-American casualties is the same as in the Vietnam War (Hispanic statistics aren't available), the average age of the fallen is older than in that war: four years older in Iraq, almost seven years older in Afghanistan.

The Pentagon does not keep information on the socioeconomic status of recruits, but evidence suggests that the lower middle class (regardless of race) bears a disproportionate burden. The military's refusal to accept those without a high school diploma and a clean criminal record often prevents the most disadvantaged from enlisting. As the survey notes, "[T]he biggest predictor of whether you're in the military today is the unemployment rate in your home county."