MEMORANDUM:
TO: Pascal Lamy,
Director-General
World Trade Organization
FROM: Bruce Stokes
RE: The Doha Countdown
You have been in office for less than a year, but it must seem like an eternity. Trade negotiators have missed deadline after deadline in the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, launched in 2001 with the goal of removing most of the remaining barriers to free trade. Last December's meeting in Hong Kong -- a gathering of trade ministers from the 149 World Trade Organization (WTO) member nations -- was an opportunity to make serious headway. Unfortunately, the trade officials accomplished little. During the six-day meeting, protesters in the street drew many more headlines than the work of the ministers inside.
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But at least the negotiations didn’t collapse entirely, and in the smoke-and-mirrors world of international trade, that was enough to call it a success. Efforts in Hong Kong by some developing countries to water down aspects of the draft agreement on the table were rebuffed, and your staff emerged energized by a sense that leading nations are serious about cutting a deal.
You may be the leader to make it happen. Supachai Panitchpakdi, your immediate predecessor, had almost no impact. There’s no reason for you to accept that fate. You are an acknowledged expert when it comes to trade. You understand the Byzantine politics of the European Commission, having served as chief of staff to former commission President Jacques Delors and then as European Union (EU) trade commissioner. And, as an inveterate marathon runner, you have the tireless energy to take on such a monumental task. Here is a road map for the crucial months ahead:
Start a Countdown Clock in the WTO Lobby: The Doha Round lacks a sense of urgency. The United States' fast-track trade negotiating authority, which allows the president to get a simple up or down vote on trade agreements, expires on July 1, 2007. Without fast track, the U.S. Congress will meddle with the details of a Doha deal and most likely shatter any hard-won international consensus. The expiration of fast-track authority is closer than it appears. Congress must be notified of the content of a Doha agreement by April 2007. Negotiators need at least six months before that date to hammer out the details of new tariff schedules. So the real deadline for striking a deal is October 2006. Set the clock in your lobby to that date. Sure, it's a publicity stunt. But the media will immediately focus on the countdown, increasing public pressure to bring these four-year-old deliberations to a close once and for all.
Go over Mandelson's Head: There won't be an agreement until Europe decides to reduce its huge farm subsidies and open its agricultural markets. The French are keeping Peter Mandelson, the current EU trade minister, on a very short leash, limiting his ability to negotiate any serious cuts when it comes to agriculture. When the previous cycle of trade negotiations faced a similar impasse in the early 1990s, the world trade chief at the time, Peter Sutherland, bypassed squabbling trade ministers and dealt directly with heads of state.
You must use your clout in European circles to make the same move. Do your best to negotiate directly with French President Jacques Chirac, new German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and others. If they need a long transition period to cut farm support or greater flexibility in dealing with import surges to quiet the political backlash, it's a price worth paying.
Obviously, such personal diplomacy won't be easy. It is widely known that there is no love lost between you and the Elysée Palace. But Mandelson can't get this done alone. He will never admit it publicly, but he needs your help.
If Chirac and others still refuse to budge, you will have no choice but to issue your own proposed final text for the Doha agreement. It's a risky move. You will draw brickbats from all sides, with developing countries claiming you have sold out the poor, while both Europe and the United States will insist the text favors the other. If your proposal is shot down, you will be a lame duck for the last three years of your tenure. But if the Doha Round fails, you have no future in Geneva, anyway. What have you got to lose?
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