By most accounts, 2005 should have been a good year for many fragile and developing states around the world. A slew of countries -- including many with limited democratic experience, such as Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, and Kazakhstan -- held elections. The number of serious armed conflicts worldwide continued to fall. The world's richest countries agreed to forgive billions in developing-country debt. Robust world trade aided China's rise as an exporting powerhouse. And yet, trends that should have been boons for stability have often been busts.
There are few quick fixes on the path to stability. Elections might give voice to the disenfranchised, but they don't necessarily translate into effective governance. High oil or commodity prices may fill government coffers, but they don't build strong institutions. By contrast, steps that capture few headlines -- the appointment of independent judges, the development of a competent civil service, and the implementation of anti-corruption campaigns -- are often the key to improving a country's foundations.
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For all the talk about technology and globalization, basic governance remains a huge challenge for many states. International institutions such as the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund can help, but large-scale state-building by outsiders is complex and costly. There have been successful U.N. peacekeeping operations in East Timor, Mozambique, Namibia, and Liberia, which recently elected Africa's first female head of state. However, the continuing U.S. struggles in Iraq and, to a lesser extent, Afghanistan have highlighted the hazards of relying on armed intervention to promote stability.
Most states will be on their own, and they run the gamut from strong and secure to weak and vulnerable. Some, including giants such as Nigeria and Pakistan, remain acutely vulnerable to internal conflict and social disintegration. A larger number, including Egypt, Russia, and even China run a substantial risk of decay. Predicting exactly when and how the next episode of state failure will happen is a fool's errand. But it is essential for policymakers to understand the vulnerabilities and weaknesses that create the conditions for state failure.
To paint a more precise picture of the phenomenon of state instability, the Fund for Peace, an independent research organization, and FOREIGN POLICY present the second-annual Failed States Index. Using 12 social, economic, political, and military indicators, we ranked 148 states in order of their vulnerability to violent internal conflict and societal dysfunction. The 60 most vulnerable states are listed in the rankings, and full results are available at www.ForeignPolicy.com and www.fundforpeace.org.
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