Reading Google in Jakarta

Despite some of these gaps in connectivity, Indonesia's Internet patterns are still revealing in the run-up to the election. One example is the increased use of the term jilbab, or Muslim head scarf, on Facebook postings. The jilbab has become a wedge issue in the campaign. The wives of the Golkar Party candidates wear it while SBY's wife doesn't, something the Golkar Party has milked repeatedly to drive up support. The threefold increase of the term on Facebook wall postings suggests increased discussion and interest.

Over the same period, however, the use of the term in Indonesian Google searches has declined 20 percent. Because people use Facebook and Google for different activities -- Facebook wall postings are parts of conversations, while Google searches represent genuine personal interest in a subject -- the discrepancy suggests that Indonesia's Internet denizens could be talkers rather than doers, "Facebook activists" rather than real-world campaigners. Debates over the electoral role of the jilbab may be happening on Facebook, but Google links only yield fashionable wares, as indicated by the fact that "Jilbab Paris" is one of the top queries.

Similarly, trends in Internet searches for the candidates have been suggestive. Over the past 90 days, Indonesian searches for "SBY" have led "Mega" by 33 percent and "Jusuf Kalla" by a factor of 10, though the former two candidates have comparable levels of connectivity in their respective support bases: SBY is most popular in East Java and Jakarta, whereas searches for Megawati are greatest in Northern Sumatra and West Java. Interest in SBY surpassed Megawati on May 11. Volume for his name spiked on May 16, after his announcement that Wharton-educated Boediono would join as his running mate; on June 22, after the first vice presidential debate; and on July 4, after the final televised presidential debate. Since June 27, Indonesian searches for SBY have nearly doubled, widening his online margin over Megawati by 240 percent. Further analysis of searches for Megawati indicate that Jakarta's volume reached what Google quantifies as "breakout" proportions on the less-than-supportive query of "say no Mega." Such data seems to confirm the incumbent's lead in domestic opinion polls.

Tracking search terms in Indonesia is mostly a matter of academic interest now. But as connectivity spreads, being informed translates to being influential, political will moves from the router box to the ballot box, and then relative movement in search volume will become a real-time barometer of opinion. Indonesia's 5 million poll workers -- spread over 500,000 polling stations -- may not want to admit it, but there could come a time when online tools will be able to predict outcomes even better than they can.

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