A Hollow Victory for Iraq

By insisting that U.S. troops exit the main stage despite all this, Maliki has put politics first. The prime minister's eye is on national elections scheduled for the end of the year. Maliki knows that his "repulsion of the occupiers" could win him political clout and campaign ammunition. He enjoys little support in Mosul, which is perhaps why it has failed to warrant the same urgent and decisive security operation we saw in Shiite-dominated Basra in 2008. For the militants, Mosul consequently became a place where they can regroup, reinvigorate morale, and capitalize on an exposed, vulnerable Iraqi security force.

Mosul also constitutes a danger zone because of growing tensions between Arabs and Kurds. Today, that animosity is so intense that just one nasty exchange could spark a wider Arab-Kurd conflict that could derail the whole country. Previous eruptions were tamed only by U.S. mediation -- and the militants know that. Whether U.S. forces will be ready to arbitrate disputes in the future remains to be seen.

Iraq's leaders are running from the reality that Iraq is still a divided nation unable to handle its security challenges. The troop withdrawal masks this fact, but the facade of unity is sure to crack. Political reconciliation is the only way to stability, but Iraq's leaders shy away from admitting that this will be contingent on U.S. diplomatic intervention or the presence of troops to act as a buffer.

The war in Iraq, a military and political one, is far from being won. The terrorists and insurgents are down but not yet out. The images of joyous Iraqis, broadcast into living rooms around the world, were little more than a skillfully orchestrated show of self-denial disguised in nationalism. It's a kind of posturing that even Saddam might have been proud of.

Ranj Alaaldin is a political researcher and analyst specializing in the Middle East.

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