Seven Questions: Jay Garner

FP: Recent reports have suggested that the Kurdish region could be positioning itself for maybe even independence -- or at least increased separation from the central government of Iraq. The Kurdish Parliament approved a new Constitution two weeks ago, for example, and has signed oil contracts with foreign companies.

JG: Wait a minute. You guys entered this at one point in time without any knowledge of what happened in the past and you think everything is from now on -- and it's not. There's a big rich past in all this.

No. 1, they've had a Constitution for about 17 years. It's been a draft constitution, but they've been practicing that Constitution. So that was not a new event. If you take their Constitution from the time they wrote it and began practicing that, it's about five times older than the Iraqi Constitution. No. 2, the Iraqi Constitution allows for regional constitutions, so they're doing everything within the context of the Iraqi Constitution. No. 3, they've been having elections since 1992; they're experienced in doing this thing. I'm here [in Iraqi Kurdistan] right now, and they're getting ready to have elections again -- huge politics going on, there are speeches everywhere. It reminds me of the [American] South when I was a kid when everybody got out, and that's the way it is here. They expect 80 percent turnout, almost.

Since the regime fell, I have not heard one Kurd, not one Kurdish leader -- in deep conversations I've had -- I have not heard one of them talk about independence. Everything I've heard them talk about is within the context of a whole Iraq. Now, what their worry is, is that when [U.S. forces] pull out, there will be a Sunni-Shiite civil war, which they will not participate in. And they're worried about how will Turkey respond to that, how will the United States respond to that, how will Iran respond to that. They have a fear of being left alone. But I don't see any movement here to try to be independent. I'd worry a hell of a lot more about what goes on in Baghdad than I would about what goes on in Erbil.

FP: What are your thoughts on the oil law that's still being drafted and discussed to decide how resources would be divided up between the regions?

JG: The Kurds are doing exactly what we do in the United States. The Kurds are saying, "We have oil here; we will bring companies in here." And they have a set of standards for companies: They have to be able to do so many barrels per day; they have to have this much money, this much past performance, all standard stuff. And they said, "We'll look at that [information] and we will award an oil block. And out of that oil block, 83 percent of the proceeds will go to Baghdad, which is required by their law, and we [the Kurds] will abide by the Baghdad law. But what we won't do is let Baghdad dictate what countries and what people come into our land and drill oil -- any more than the governor of Oklahoma is going to let Washington. D.C., come and drill." It's no different from what [Americans] do.

[As for the oil law,] I think they are going to come to a resolution. It'll be solved probably within the next year. I don't think it's a big thing. Baghdad still harbors central control of everything -- that's the legacy of Saddam Hussein. And in Kurdistan, which has been a quasi democracy for 18 years, they are more decentralized. They are not going to succumb to centralization by Baghdad any more than the southern [U.S.] states will succumb to centralization by the federal government. I mean, we bitch about [the same thing] in the United States.

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