A Violent Window of Opportunity

Diplomatic attempts at ending the violence have been half hearted. Just this Monday, the government dropped charges against senior militant leader Henry Okah, who had been in custody for gun running since 2007. MEND's response has been to declare a 60-day cease-fire -- conditional on the pull out of the JTF.

Okah said on Tuesday that he doubted other militants would accept the government's amnesty offer unless Nigeria was willing to begin peace talks under international auspices, dissolve the JTF, and end attacks on Niger Delta communities. The government's offer was also contingent on a halt to attacks by the militants. The state has so far been silent on whether it would consider third-party-managed peace talks.

What's needed are real political agreements on wealth sharing, amnesty, and development for the impoverished communities from which oil is extracted and militants are born -- and now could be the time to make them. The recent drop in oil prices and the rise in militant attacks have started to hurt the government -- contributing to a huge loss in oil revenue estimated at $27 billion over a nine-month period last year alone. Between 2006 and 2008, shutdowns due to attacks saw average production drop 1 million barrels per day, yielding billions of dollars in losses. With the latest attacks on pipelines last month affecting nearly half of the region's normal output, the decline may have hit its worst levels. In other words, the government might finally have a strong financial motivation to negotiate.

Third-party mediation will be essential, and U.S. President Barack Obama's new assistant secretary for African affairs, Amb. Johnnie Carson, would be a good fit to shepherd the process forward. A respected Africanist, he has the credibility to put hard conditions on the table: a workable amnesty linked to the release of hostages and a long-term halt to violence; an increase in oil revenues to the delta; a detailed plan for better accountability for financial flows at the state level, including credible action against the networks of oil bunkering that link the militants to senior local and national politicians; a disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration program for militants, facilitated by the United Nations; a replacement of JTF military forces with civilian police; and an international commitment to help monitor the final accord.

Nigeria cannot afford to have peace efforts fail again. Until a compromise is reached and peace is found, everyone loses.

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