Why the Taliban are watching the British polls
July has been a bloody month for British forces in Afghanistan, and policymakers in London are now feeling the consequences. Fifteen British soldiers died, including eight within one 24-hour period. British deaths in Afghanistan, 184 since 2001, now exceed their toll from Iraq. According to the Washington Post, the departure of soldiers' coffins from an air base near London previously went unnoticed. Now hundreds, sometimes thousands of people line the streets in the small town of Wootton Bassett to observe the processions.
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Although 4,000 U.S. Marines entered the Taliban's heartland in southern Helmand province at the beginning of this month, the Taliban seem to be largely bypassing the Americans to focus on the British contingent in the center and north of the province. This should not be a surprise. Public dissatisfaction with the war is growing in Britain and Prime Minister Gordon Brown's unpopular Labour government is facing a general election by June 2010. Taliban strategists likely believe they have a chance to drive the British from the field.
If media hits in the British press concerning the situation in Afghanistan are a "metric of success" for Taliban strategists, they should feel pleased that the battle is going their way. On July 12, Small Wars Journal rounded 18 news, video, and opinion pieces on Afghanistan, all published in the British press within a two-day period.
The issue for the Labour Party is whether it is going to defend a manpower-intensive counterinsurgency and stabilization campaign in Afghanistan during the general election campaign. The opposition Conservative Party's tactic is to harshly criticize the government's competency and its "too lofty" mission objectives. Labour will have to either argue for the status quo or agree to downgrade the mission in Afghanistan and cut back the British Army's actions against the Taliban.
The Taliban are likely thinking about Canada's experience in Kandahar province. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservative Party, inherited the Afghan war from the previous Liberal Party government. As the war grew more unpopular and the 2008 general election loomed, Harper was unwilling to argue for an open-ended military commitment. The Liberals were similarly unwilling to defend their decision to commit Canada to the war in 2001. Prior to the October 2008 general election, the two parties agreed on a common policy to end Canada's military mission in Afghanistan by 2011. This decision succeeded in eliminating the war as a campaign issue, but it also supported the Taliban's war objectives.
Will Gordon Brown and his Conservative opponent David Cameron be similarly tempted by the "Canada option"? Should Taliban pressure on British soldiers remain, Brown would surely want his Afghan problem to go away. Cameron might also have no interest in defending the war in a general election and may feel he enjoys a sufficient advantage on other issues.
I am not questioning the bravery or skill of Britain's and Canada's soldiers. For almost eight years, they have sustained grievous casualties and still go out on patrol. Nor is this a criticism of politicians or voters who in the end will respond to the circumstances they face.
Rather, it is a description of the difficulties modern democracies face in fighting painful irregular wars. It is also an illustration of why these democracies need some new doctrines for irregular warfare -- the Taliban are showing how to blow up the current ones.
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