- NOVEMBER 23, 2009
-
Planning for the Worst in Honduras
Dark clouds are gathering over negotiations on the country's future.
BY MICHAEL SHIFTER | JULY 21, 2009
In the second scenario, even if the Arias plan does go forward and Zelaya returns under the conditions set forth in the agreement, there is no guarantee that things will go smoothly. Zelaya might do precisely what the Micheletti government fears, which is to defy the Arias plan, as he previously defied the Supreme Court and Congress, and set about on another unconstitutional power grab. This is a real risk, but one that can best be mitigated by a vigilant international presence aimed at constraining Zelaya's behavior. Making sure the upcoming elections are fair and credible will help. Washington might have to dig its hands in deeper than it would like -- certainly more deeply than it has done to date.
Of course, the trickiest detail of all is the fact that the ousted and now foreign-backed Zelaya is no friend of the United States, nor of democracy. Since 2008, the Honduran president has allied himself with a U.S. foreign-policy nemesis, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. Obama has openly recognized this fact, which has earned the administration even more praise for maintaining its principled stand on the Honduras crisis. But Chávez has been, and will continue to be, a problem as he seeks to curtail Washington's influence. Obama's response to the coup has helped neutralize the Venezuelan strongman. Had the U.S. president not been as firm, Chávez would have seized on Washington's wobbliness to come out politically stronger, claiming the moral high ground. The right U.S. response in Honduras now will make Obama more effective and credible in responding to other antidemocratic actions later, whether in Venezuela or elsewhere.
Whatever might be said about Zelaya's own responsibility in bringing about the crisis, his forced removal from the country by the military is no minor detail. It is a rupture in the democratic order that touched a nerve in a region that has long struggled to keep its various armed forces under control. That history makes it all the more urgent to heed Arias's ominous warning and resolve this crisis peacefully now.
GARCIA/AFP/Getty Images
Michael Shifter is vice president for policy at the Inter-American Dialogue.
Michael Shifter's statement that Zelaya is no friend of democracy is astonishing.
The sole basis he cites is that Zelaya is allied with Hugo Chavez. While Chavez robustly asserts positions that are hostile to the United States, or at least are hostile to American business interests, he nevertheless is the legitimate, democratically elected leader of Venezuela.
Therefore, while we - out of a sense of realpolitik or some other calculation - might choose to oppose Zelaya and/or Chavez, it nevertheless remains the case - whether we like it or not - that Zelaya's affiliation with Chavez is, if anything, a credential so far as his friendship to democracy is concerned.
Legitimate Democratic Elections in Venezuela ??? NOT
The astonishing part here is the comment posted by Duncan Kinder:
"Chavez ..., he nevertheless is the legitimate, democratically elected leader of Venezuela."
The US Media Widely reported the election irregularities in Venezuela's Presidential elections.
1. Organization of American States election observer chief removed from the country prior to the election for reporting changes to the election rules and regulations by Chavez prior to the election preventing election monitors and multi-party observers being present at those key times when election fraud ( ballot box stuffing and fraudulent ballot counting ) takes place.
2. Pre-election polls showing Chavez losing 40% to 60 %.
3. Exit polls showing Chavez losing 40% to 60%.
4. Election officials hand picked by Chavez banning all election monitors and monitors from other parties being present when the ballot boxes were secured and the ballots counted.
5. Ballots were counted in private with only Chavez's hand picked government officials present.
6. A miracle occurs and Chavez win's the election by 60% to 40% according to the government officials hand picked by Chavez ( members of his government ).
7. Jimmy Carter, without monitoring the election process, declares his self appointed election monitoring organization satisfied the results were fair.
Even the left wing US Media did not buy it and neither does anyone else with eyes, ears and a brain.
Chavez has since closed down, taken over or intimidated into silence all major media outlets in Venezuela into reporting only government approved "facts". This muzzling of media is currently being extended to small radio stations in Venezuela.
Good try though Duncan Kinder. If you repeat a lie often enough many folks will believe it is true.
MywifeandIliveontheHonduranislandofGuanaja.
My wife and I have lived on the Honduran island of Guanaja for 12 years and have closely followed the goings-on of the current government condition involving the removal of Zelaya.
At the approximate conclusion of your article you characterize the actions of the military as being "no minor detail". Upon closer examination you will discover that they were ordered to remove Zelaya by the Honduran Supreme Court. Would you have had the military say to the Supreme Court GFY?
Manuel Zelaya - Pro Democracy ??? - Pro Rule of Law ???
All countries of the European Union and the United States are Republics.
The countries of the European Union are NOT Democracies.
The United States is NOT a Democracy.
Honduras, as well as all the countries above, including the United States are Democratic Republics with the Supreme Law of the Land being the constitution of each country.
Elected representatives of the people in legislative bodies in all these countries make laws in accordance with limitations of the constitutions. All elected officials must swear a solemn oath to uphold and defend the constitution. Each member of the US Military swears such and oath.
Each constitution sets out a process to change the constitution.
Presidents in all these countries enforce the laws and do not make law.
No President in any of the these countries has the authority to change the constitution by decree.
In the United States the people can NOT vote to make a federal law. In the United States the people can NOT vote to change the United States constitution. Only elected representatives of the people of the United States can change the Constitution when following a specific process that makes it very difficult to change and requires super majorities to change it.
The same is true in Honduras as the United States.
The exiled President proposed to change the constitution the way he wants it to be by following a very simple process which is NOT allowed by the Constitution and does not require a super majority - in fact he intended to make up the election rules as he went along because the other members of the Democratic government of Honduras would not join him in violating the constitution.
The United States and the EU are now demanding this man be returned to power in Honduras - why ???
So he can claim victory and change the constitution by an illegal rigged election run by his own cronies - after bringing in Venezuelan and Nicaraguan militias to put down any peaceful democratic opposition ???
Hey - it worked for the current dictator in Venezuela - why not try it again in Honduras.
Is anyone in charge of India policy?
BY JOSH ROGIN
Why are people creating Facebook profiles for Holocaust victims?
BY EVGENY MOROZOV
North Africa's escalating soccer war
BY JOSHUA KEATING
How the Chinese media covered Obama's visit
BY WILLIAM MOSS
What would George Marshall think of today's generals?
BY THOMAS E. RICKS
What does containing North Korea actually mean?
BY JAMIE FLY
How the Chinese government censored Obama's visit
BY JOSH ROGIN
November/December 2009
-
Feature
-
Feature
-
Opening Gambit
About FP: Meet the Staff | Foreign Editions | Reprint Permissions | Advertising | Corporate Programs | Writers’ Guidelines | Press Room | Work at FP
Services: Subscription Services | Academic Program | FP Archive | Reprint Permissions | FP Reports and Merchandise | Special Reports | Buy Back Issues
Subscribe to FP | Privacy Policy | Disclaimer | RSS Feeds | Contact Us
1899 L Street NW, Suite 550 | Washington, DC 20036 | Phone: 202-728-7300 | Fax: 202-728-7342
FOREIGN POLICY is published by the Slate Group, a division of Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, LLC
All contents ©2009 Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, LLC. All rights reserved.
(5)
HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE