If China's So Powerful, Why Isn't It More Powerful?

The United States and other nations have long recognized Beijing's economic might. But why hasn't that translated to commensurate political respect?

BY WEN LIAO | JULY 28, 2009

This week, during the latest meeting of the twice-a-year U.S.-China strategic dialogue, leaders from both countries are talking economic policy. Cabinet members, led by their respective finance ministers and central bank governors, are discussing trade, climate change, the fates of the dollar and yuan, and other vital issues. But there are signs that this dialogue may become bogged down in the same old tit-for-tat economic disputes and fear-driven rhetoric.

Leaders in Washington and Beijing have long recognized the emerging giant's importance to the world economy in general and the U.S. economy in particular. But, China's leaders feel, this has not yet translated into equal stature in making decisions regarding the international financial system, global economic policy, or the United Nations and global diplomacy.

Amid all of the discussion of dollars and bonds and deficits, the key question for the talks -- a question that isn't on the table -- is this: Is the United States prepared to treat as an equal partner the self-confident China that emerged following last October's financial meltdown?

During the early stages of the recession, in 2007, China stepped in to ease the credit crunch. Chinese sovereign wealth funds immediately helped recapitalize the debt of U.S. and European banking institutions. The crunch became a crisis in September when the state-owned China Investment Corporation pulled out of talks to buy Lehman Brothers, the troubled U.S. investment bank. The economic chaos that followed Lehman's eventual collapse revealed to China the depth of its stake, and the impact of its decisions, in the globalized world economy.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, delivered China's assertion of its new status in a strikingly blunt article he published last spring. In that article, Zhou called for the dollar to be replaced as the main reserve currency by a new global currency. Zhou's broadside was China's way of making clear not only its fears about the dollar and hence the value of China's huge foreign reserves, but also that it is now prepared to offer its own solutions to fundamental global issues.

Although China is not in a position to replace (even if it wanted to) either the dollar or the United States as the engine of the global economy, its stake in the world continues to be underestimated. Since 2000, China's contribution to global GDP growth (in purchasing-power-parity terms) has been 150 percent bigger than that of Russia, India, and Brazil combined. Its massive holdings of U.S. Treasury bills are a primary determining factor for U.S. interest rates. Nevertheless, a misperception still persists that the Chinese economy is too inward-looking to have commensurate global impact.

In 2006, Robert Zoellick -- then U.S. deputy secretary of state and now president of the World Bank -- said that he hoped that China would become a "responsible stakeholder" in the world community. That neat phrase suggested that the United States wanted China to look beyond narrow self-interest in its international dealings.

But China's diplomacy was already moving in the direction Zoellick sought. Its refusal to engage in competitive devaluations during the Asian financial crisis of 1998 had marked the turning point, as China put stabilizing the economies of its region ahead of its own interests. Since then it joined the talks on North Korea and has raised no complaints about America's increasing military activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indeed, in its relations with the United States, China seems to be guided more by pragmatism than by competition.

Yet China's sudden global reach generates anxiety at all levels of the U.S. government. Before this year, strategic dialogue meetings were dominated by American complaints about China's trade surplus with the U.S. and demands that China revalue the yuan upward. The U.S. Congress called frequently for trade sanctions against China and even, citing nebulous national-security concerns, scuppered the proposed takeover of Unocal, an American oil firm, by CNOOC, China's state-owned energy giant.

The "China bashing" voices in Congress are more muted this year, perhaps because there is a general recognition that China's dollar holdings give it a powerful say about the greenback's fate. But that does not mean that blaming China for global ills has gone out of fashion. Indeed, during the strategic dialogue discussions, climate change is likely to incite the heat that currencies and trade once did.

Climate change, indeed, is a knottier diplomatic problem for China than the global financial crisis has been. Not only has China become the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, but its future emissions will probably far exceed forecasts. Moreover, China remains a vast developing country, determined to lift hundreds of millions of its people out of poverty through rapid economic growth. Balancing its need for growth with climate protection makes climate change diplomacy a tricky venture for China.

So far, the problem in the climate talks is that the United States continues to demand something like parity in the level of sacrifice made by the two countries. But this demand conveniently forgets the fact that China remains a developing country, while the United States is a fully developed one. As a developing country that has throughout history emitted only one fifth of the CO2 emitted by the United States, China insists that it has the moral right to resist hard caps on its emissions.

The debate over climate change nicely encapsulates the unique nature of China's rise to great-power status. The Chinese understand that their country's ascent is far different than that of Germany and the United States in the early 20th century. Back then, the United States and Germany achieved parity with the per capita GDP of their key rivals, Britain and France. China, on the other hand, has achieved economic superpower status despite the fact that two thirds of its population remains mired in rural poverty.

Given these worries, China -- in its search for status with the United States -- has no interest in overturning the current open global order that has benefited it so much. Indeed, if the United States consults closely with China on today's most pressing global issues, it might find China to be more than accommodating.

Examples of China's flexibility can be found in the traditional world of foreign policy. For example, China is as worried as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton about potential military ties between Burma and North Korea, as its fears the negative impact that both unstable regimes may have within China.

In Afghanistan and Pakistan, too, U.S. and Chinese interests increasingly run in parallel. The recent Uighur riots in Xinjiang redoubled China's worries about radical Islam making inroads into China. So it should be no surprise that China has gone along with the United States maintaining its airbase in neighboring Kyrgyzstan for the resupply of NATO troops in Afghanistan, and that Chinese diplomats have consistently backed the Pakistani government as it scaled up its domestic war against the Taliban.

All of this suggests that Chinese and American strategic interests can be harmonized if both governments work diligently at doing so. But for this to be achieved, China needs to have its primacy among nations accepted, its responsible behaviour recognized, and its interests respected. The strategic dialogue can only succeed if it institutionalizes China's role in today's open global order, rather than hectoring China to acquiesce in the preservation of U.S. interests.

Alex Wong/Getty Images

 

Wen Liao is the chairwoman of Longford Advisors, a political, economic, and business consultancy.

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WOLF B. LITZER

4:46 PM ET

July 28, 2009

Where's the evidence?

I'd sure like to see Ms. Wen's evidence for her statement that "the recent Uighur riots in Xinjiang redoubled China's worries about radical Islam making inroads into China."

Where is the evidence that the demonstrations and riots in Xinjiang have anything to do with radical Islam? I have certainly seen no evidence.

There are many reports that Chinese security forces killed innocent Uighurs on July 5. I'd say it's in the best interests of China, the U.S. and the entire world to stop killing innocent people.

 

THEDREADEDLURGI

4:53 PM ET

July 28, 2009

I agree with Wolf. Wen Liao,

I agree with Wolf. Wen Liao, please back up the following statement with independent evidence (i.e. not Xinhua).

"The recent Uighur riots in Xinjiang redoubled China's worries about radical Islam making inroads into China."

 

ZYXSF

7:14 PM ET

July 28, 2009

The fact is, of the some 180 people killed during July 5 riot,

148 are Han Chinese. Since 1950, Uighurs in Xinjiang has been enjoying many favorite status quote over Han Chinese living in the province: when it comes to opportunities of getting a job in state run enterprises and being accepted into university. Many Han Chinese in the region deeply resent these forms of reverse discrimination, which, at least partially, fuels the racial tension between the Hans and Uighurs.

 

WOLF B. LITZER

11:25 PM ET

July 28, 2009

Wow, I'm convinced!

@ ZYXSF,

Well, I know I'm convinced that China is telling the truth about how many people died! I also heard that the riots were masterminded by the evil, terrorist separatist Rebiya Kadeer, who colludes with the Dalai Lama, the CIA, the US Congress, and other China bashers to foment unrest- just like the Chinese government said, the demonstrations and riots had NOTHING to do with any serious, underlying problems in the region. That just wouldn't make sense, would it? Why WOULDN'T people just take to the streets for no reason at all but an order from an overseas evil mastermind? Unless, of course, they are all so happy that they are getting preferential treatment for jobs and university acceptance.

 

MGUNN

5:12 AM ET

July 29, 2009

reasons for rioting

I suppose the reasons are the same for when the Rodney King riots occurred here or when Muslims rioted in Europe in 2005. Sure we've improved but it wasn't for inflammatory rhetoric from people pretending to care from china, like we are doing to them. Sure they need to improve but I completely doubt the sincerity of china minority sympathizers here in the west. We'd drop the native people like a rock just like we did in Afghanistan. The rhetoric is just to make us feel good about ourselves, but actually worsens the situation, which is precisely what we really want. Then we could pretend to care even more...

 

UZBEKPOLICY

2:09 AM ET

July 29, 2009

A bit ignorant statement, if not blind

This article, in addition to sounding like a piece of China Daily, just put me in a state of shock.

1) First, that statement about "radical Islam making inroads into China" is extremely ignorant and very simplistic. CCP has been repressing this whole minority group using "war on terror" as an excuse only since 9/11 -- a fact documented by Human Rigths Watch, Amnesty Int'l, Helsinki Foundation, Freedom House, U.S. Department of State....... I guess next time, author will write that Buddhist terrorists rioted in Tibet.

2) Another thing that makes me worry is the usage of such a terminology as "open global order". What is that supposed to mean? Does it imply that the global order is open for Communist Party? China Politburo?

Did anyone ask if Japan, Australia, New Zeland, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan or South Korea agree with that??? Should they tomorrow say good bye to democracy in that region?

3) And, what kind of "responsible behavior" must be recognized? Sponsoring genocide in Darfur or Uzbekistan? Well, yeah, that sounds very respectable behavior and interests.