After months of dithering and delay, the Iranian government appears to have grudgingly accepted the U.S. president's diplomatic overtures. Just shy of the deadline for dialogue set by the White House, the Islamic Republic has announced its readiness to offer new "proposals" for talks over its nuclear program.
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The move is a political victory of sorts for Obama, who has made "engagement" with Iran a centerpiece of his Middle East policy. But it might end up being a Pyrrhic victory. If true to form, Iran will likely try to use the upcoming talks with Washington the same way it did previous ones with Europe -- as a way to play for time and add permanence to its nuclear project. For Obama to convince Iran's rulers that the costs of their nuclear effort will far outweigh the perceived benefits, talking alone won't be enough; the White House will need real leverage over Tehran.
This begins with economic pressure. Contrary to conventional wisdom about the inefficacy of sanctions, U.S. measures against Iranian banks and institutions have had a real impact on Tehran's ability to engage in international commerce in recent years. So much so that Iran's former finance minister, Davoud Danesh Jafari, warned his staff last spring before leaving office that the Iranian government had "embarked on a serious and breathtaking game of chess with America's Treasury Department." Such measures should be strengthened, and their potential scope expanded, as a way of preventing Iran's trading partners from concluding that the onset of negotiations represents a green light to return to "business as usual."
Also on the table is a gasoline embargo. Systematically targeting Iran's deep dependence on foreign refined petroleum may not be a silver bullet for changing Iran's behavior. But, given the latent vulnerabilities in Iran's energy sector (including a refining shortfall projected to continue until at least 2013 and flagging foreign direct investment), there is real reason to think that a gas embargo can be effective, if only in the near term. The same is true of steps that target Iran's ability to physically import and export energy, all of which are under consideration by the U.S. Congress.
But economic pressure alone will not suffice, particularly if Tehran thinks, as it appears to, that such pressure is Washington's only weapon. A credible threat of force is also necessary. As military professionals have stressed, a range of military options -- even if politically unpalatable -- is technically feasible. They are also essential to the success of U.S. diplomacy. Without such a coercive component, the Iranian regime will remain convinced that there are no consequences to its failure to change course. Iran's leaders need to know that the United States is aware of their strategic intentions and prepared to use force to stop them if necessary.
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