• DECEMBER 19, 2009
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The New Defense Realism

Obama's missile defense decision represents the victory of pragmatism over ideology.

BY JOSEPH CIRINCIONE | SEPTEMBER 17, 2009

The Obama administration's decision announced today to cancel the deeply flawed antimissile systems in Eastern Europe is sound policy based on the best intelligence and technical assessments. U.S. President Barack Obama replaces a system that did not work against a threat that did not exist with weapons that can defend against the real Iranian missile capability. Better still, he NATO-izes the system to strengthen the alliance, not divide it.

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This is not Munich; it is Prague. It is not appeasement; it is the new defense realism, the triumph of pragmatism over ideology.

The system that former President George W. Bush was rushing to build in Eastern Europe did not work. The interceptors slotted for Poland have not yet been built, let alone tested, and their sister systems deployed in Alaska have demonstrated serious operational problems. The radar intended for the Czech Republic has been shown to have major shortcomings, as documented by Theodore Postol of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and other independent experts. In short, it could not see the warheads it was suppose to track.

There was no "shield." There was no defense capability to "give up." It did not exist. Fortunately, neither did the Iranian missile threat that the system was supposed to counter. Iran does not have a long-range missile that can strike Central Europe, let alone the United States, and is unlikely to develop one over the next 10 years, if ever. Nor does it have a nuclear warhead to put on a future missile.

The official U.S. intelligence assessment is that Iran would not have the material for a warhead -- highly enriched uranium -- before 2013. It would probably take years more to develop a warhead and test it. U.S. intelligence agencies would likely be able to detect this activity, certainly a nuclear test.

Independent assessments, such as that done by an EastWest Institute panel of American and Russian experts, agree. These rocket scientists concluded earlier this year:

Iran will not be able, for at least ten to fifteen years, to master independently the "critical technologies" for advanced mobile or silo-based IRBMs [intermediate-range ballistic missiles] and ICBMs [intercontinental ballistic missiles] because it does not have the scientific, economic, and industrial infrastructure for developing these critical technologies.

This means that Iran could not build modern intermediate-range missiles (3,000 to 5,500 kilometers) that could strike Europe, or intercontinental-range missiles (5,500 to 10,000 kilometers) to strike the United States, for at least 10 years. The scientists concluded that Iran might be able to build a 2,000-kilometer, or medium-range, missile that could strike parts of Europe within eight years, but that missile would be highly vulnerable to counterstrikes while it was assembled on its launchpad. Importantly, the scientists also applied a common-sense filter to this technical assessment: Iran would be highly unlikely to undertake such a suicidal attack if it did have such a weapon. Iranian leaders would know that a devastating counterattack would certainly follow any missile launch. Deterrence, not antimissile interceptors, is still the best defense.

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ANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

 

Joseph Cirincione is president of the Ploughshares Fund and author of Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons.

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GRANT

11:13 PM ET

September 17, 2009

What I imagine is more

What I imagine is more important for Obama is that the public by and large doesn't care right now. If this was roughly two years ago the idea of canceling the projects would have cost the Democrats dearly, as the U.S is now almost nobody cares. What matters far more is how foreign leaders choose to see this.

 

SON LORT

7:07 AM ET

September 18, 2009

Realism or not, this is a let down for the US allies in Europe

The countries who agreed to shield deployment earned some hate credit with Russia on the account of US strong pressure to install it.

Now that the next clueless hack in the White house decides the opposite, mostly on account of money shortage, the US press (of course) sings a short praise like the one above, and the people who agreed to the initiative are left to wonder what is up.

Mr. Obama should do well to show in some (hopefully convincing) way that US is committed to their allies, and doesn't change commitment with every administration and poll change.

Unfortunately, so far Mr. Obama's international achievements look worse than even those of the arrogant guy with the white mustache.

Too bad.

 

GRANT

8:05 PM ET

September 18, 2009

The stated goal of the

The stated goal of the putting missiles there was to protect against long range nuclear missiles sent from Iran (and currently Iran doesn't even have those long range missiles as has been stated before). If we intend to protect our allies from possible missile attacks then the sea-based systems would probably do as good a job. Although almost certainly another reason was to establish a U.S presence in Eastern Europe there are multiple other ways to do it without the controversy; for example we could establish a small, symbolic NATO base in Poland or have integrated army maneuvers with the Czechs.
Also, while it is unpleasant the reality is that we need Russia far more than Poland or the Czech Republic right now. Without Russia it will be literally impossible to have any kind of meaningful sanctions put on Iran, and it will be practically impossible to supply forces in Afghanistan.

 

REDPINE

8:58 PM ET

September 20, 2009

Poor Poland...

While I appreciate the predicament that this places Poland and the Czech Republic in, I can't help but think that it's there leaders' own fault for agreeing to a stupid idea that wouldn't work. It was also irresponsible of the Bush admin to put these allies in this situation which antagonized Russia (or rather allowed the Kremlin to beat the war drums against a US bid for "imperialism", allowing them to mobilize anti-US segments of their own population) for the purpose of spending a lot of money to build a pointless non-functional 'defense' system. Poland and the Czech Republic should have known better and not doubled down on a losing geopolitical gambit. I agree with you though that we now need to show some way that we are truely committed to these countries. Preferably a way that isn't dumb and need not be changed in the future.

 

BRETT

1:36 AM ET

September 19, 2009

If we intend to protect our

If we intend to protect our allies from possible missile attacks then the sea-based systems would probably do as good a job.

It actually makes it a lot more difficult and costly to do so. In order to properly have the system going you need at least three Aegis ships working together, and they have to be in the right spot at the right time, meaning that in order to provide coverage for Europe you'd have to have a bunch of them hovering off the Baltic Coast.

That eats into your supply of Aegis ships pretty quickly, and they aren't cheap.

 

BUFFALO09

6:27 AM ET

September 24, 2009

Former Soviet Republics/States

The Russian invasion into the state of Georgia was an event that will remain engrained in my head for many years to come. Rising levels of "nationalism" that continue increase within Russia were intensified exponentially as Russian soldiers violated the State of Georgia's territorial boundaries as this incursion was viewed by the Russian population as a victory against the United States. Putin masterfully in his quest to re-establish Russian influence across the globe by re-introducing a technique that initially provided the foundation of all foreign policy directives coming out of Moscow and was always utilized as a means to intimidate any potential competitors/threats; the re-introduction of "fear” has been deemed the necessary means of projecting power according to Putin, which will result in Russia's return to the global stage of prominence. Resurgent nationalism has also provided a supportive role that is destined to see the former Soviet Union return as a viable competitor whose main goal is to displace U.S as the reigning hegemon. It is quite evident upon watching discussions evolve between Russia and the U.S. that Obama is content on fulfilling the submissive role towards Putin and that his favorite method of engaging abrasive leaders is usually proceeded with some kind of unwarranted apology and then directed towards appeasing the other parties desires instead of confronting projections of fear with sound, firm, policy directives, that are communicated sternly. I am aware of the difficulties that plagued the state of Georgia, their government, and also the plight of ethnic groups who lived in the former Soviet Republic, but aligned their loyalties with Russian military officers instead of Georgian's. However, I was absolutely amazed that a former Soviet Republic whose democratic aspirations warranted unprecedented support from the world's leading promoter of free societies and democracy (the U.S.) along with the questionable unreliable NATO organization partners, but was left to fend for itself against the Russian military. The United States shamefully did not fulfill it's commitment that entailed overseeing and supporting the construction of democratic organizations as they evolved in Post Cold War Soviet Space. This instance elevated Russian “nationalistic sentiments" to levels that had not been recorded prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union. A victory that entailed regaining previous Soviet territories raised confidence levels among the Russian population, but most importantly, this victory was designed to embarrass the United States which was met with overwhelming approval across the entire Russian countryside. Regardless as to whether or not the proposed missile system worked or not:; it was the commitment made towards these independent states who rely on these agreements as a means of security that influences decisions and reinforce behaviors involving matters of a geopolitical nature. In fact, it is extremely embarrassing to watch Obama engage in talks with Putin and is willingly complacent in accepting a submissive role while being looked down upon and spoken down from a former KGB member who is determined to see that Russia return to the global stage as a rival hegemony through means of instituting fear into Kremlin foreign policy measures. Once again the United States will fail to fulfill its commitments towards self proclaimed former Soviet States/Republics who reside within spaces of a highly contested nature and whose citizens seek to establish democratic institutions as their means of governance. We can only hope that Obama Administration Foreign Policy Initiatives, which are based solely upon communicating in a manner that entails utilizing double speech as a means of promoting soft power while also stringent guidelines followed as not to offend and disrupt the sensitive nature of the discussions. The other technique involved in conducting foreign relationship talks, relies solely upon relinquishing the discussion of any language which might reinforce previous misconceptions regarding the style of communication which can be utilized as a method of non-verbal communication which is designed to convey inferiority. Therefore, it is deemed necessary by administration foreign policy officials that interjection of verbiage associated with appeasement, is vital towards quelling the excessive feelings of guilt that originate within all individuals who deem themselves as citizens of the decrepit bastion of capitalism, the United States of America. Power projection through soft power and appeasement, according to administration officials help facilitate the evolution of a communication environment that is beneficial for both parties due to recognizing that sensitivities and feelings are the basis for establishing a meaningful relationship with nations retaining characteristics of an adversarial nature.

 
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