Obama's Iran Trap

Just because Iran got caught with its hands in the nuclear cookie-jar doesn't mean the U.S. president now has the advantage. If anything, his troubles have only begun.

BY BLAKE HOUNSHELL | SEPTEMBER 28, 2009

The conventional wisdom on last week's astonishing revelations about Iran's secret uranium-enrichment site, tucked in a mountainside near the holy city of Qom, holds that Barack Obama has just pulled off a diplomatic coup, raising the pressure on Tehran going into a critical Oct. 1 big-powers meeting and finally getting the Russians to agree to U.N. sanctions with real bite.

Current and former officials seem to think announcing the facility was a shrewd move. "We have created a problem for the Iranians with this disclosure," Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday. "I think this is actually healthy that this has broken," former President Bill Clinton chimed in.

Don't be so sure. Obama may not have had much choice given that Iran had just notified the International Atomic Energy Agency of its new nuke plant, but the U.S. president is the one with a problem now. By revealing this information, he has painted himself into a corner and made an Israeli strike more likely.

For one thing, it's not clear that "the Russians" have really agreed to sanctions. Yes, President Dmitry Medvedev emerged from his meeting with Obama last week to suggest he was on board. And we know that U.S. national security advisor James L. Jones pulled aside Sergei Prikhodko, his Russian counterpart, to tell him the news about the second Iranian plant. (Officially Medvedev's advisor, Prikhodko is really Putin's top foreign-policy boss, and chances are he accompanied Medvedev to New York to be the prime minister's ears and eyes on the ground.)

What we don't know is what Putin thinks. But as demonstrated last year when the prime minister abruptly left the Olympics to supervise the war with Georgia, he's still very much in charge. (Right on schedule, a Russian foreign ministry source reportedly said today that everyone should "calm down" over Iran's latest missile test and "not give way to emotions.") And then there's China, which came out with a typically milquetoast statement after Obama, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy made their dramatic announcement Thursday morning at the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh. Everyone knows that serious sanctions mean fuel, as Iran, for all its oil, still has to import a great deal of refined petroleum (just how much is disputed) to make its economy run. But the Chinese get 15 percent of their oil from Iran. Needless to say, getting meaningful sanctions through the U.N. Security Council is far from assured.

And let's also remember that the point of all this isn't the sanctions themselves -- it's getting the Iranians to give up their nuclear-weapons ambitions. Now, put yourself in the minds of Iranian leaders. Despite some major remaining technical hurdles, you're inching closer to achieving your nuclear goals. You've been watching the North Koreans very closely, noticing  that even after they tested a nuclear device one, two times, the regime is still in power and, if anything, the carrots they've been offered have only become more generous. And you're willing to bet that once you've got The Bomb, you'll be able to sort out all those issues like your frozen bank accounts and airplane spare parts with The Great Satan.

JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images

 

Blake Hounshell is managing editor at FP.

MARCELIOTSTEIN

9:43 AM ET

September 29, 2009

best case

Well, given the fact that Obama specializes in playing the middle, I guess the best hope is that he and Hillary will gradually manage to pull off a historic diplomatic coup that slows Iran's nuclear progress and reduces the level of global tension. Of course this wouldn't fundamentally solve any problems, but it would be consistent with Obama's modus operandi as the guy who reaches across the aisle.

Then again, he hasn't been doing too well reaching across the aisle even here in the US lately, so maybe the best hope is a longshot.

 

HASS

4:21 PM ET

September 29, 2009

Iran was abiding by the rules

What "hands caught in cookie jar"? Please, give me a break. Iran declared the site to the IAEA exactly was it was supposed to do, months before it was required to do so. Lacking any (ANY) evidence of an actual nuclear weapons program in Iran, the US is desperately trying to spin Iran's disclosure as an "admission" to something nefarious. In other words, even if Iran abides by the rules, we're still going to promote false speculation about them.

Iran has requested the IAEA to inspect the site, and there's no proof that it was meant to be anything other than a legitimate fuel enrichment facility.

 

GDRIVER

1:28 AM ET

September 30, 2009

Nuclear arms reduction will not apply to ISRAEL

Both American and Israeli intelligence have known about Iran's so-called undisclosed nuclear energy facility for more than a year. But Israel is using it as a further excuse for a claimed pre-emptive attack on Iran before the end of this year.

Iran, currently, has no nuclear weapons and is estimated to be unable to make even one small nuclear device for at least a year or longer.

On the other hand, Israel is estimated to now have a secret stockpile of between 250-450 nuclear warheads together with delivery systems by air, ground and nuclear-armed submarine. These are reported to be operational and ready to strike anywhere in the Middle East, the Gulf or the Mediterranean.

That is the frightening scenario - not Iran who is a signatory to both the NPT and the IAEA, but Israel who is a signatory to neither one and whose massive nuclear arsenal is uninspected and unknown. That is the urgent predicament of the international community.

The nuclear arms reduction as proposed by the US and agreed by existing nuclear weapon states, DOES NOT APPLY TO ISRAEL who still refuses to admit to nuclear arms possession. That means that the US, UK, Russia, France and China, and hopefully India and Pakistan, will start to reduce nuclear weapon stockpiles whilst Israel can continue to increase its massive clandestine arsenal.

We are fast-forwarding to a world where the Middle East could be in flames, international oil supplies cut, stock markets collapsed, economies failing and our living costs escalated to a point that is inconceivable to imagine.

For what reason? So as Israel can extend its illegal occupation of Palestinian land.

Surely, now is the time for all peace-loving people to stand-up and declare that enough is enough! The time for the Israeli lobby to impose its agenda, not only upon the US electorate, but on the entire free world, must be ended!

What we can do is to persuade the European Parliament to immediately SUSPEND the EU-Israel Association Agreement that gives Israel free access to all European markets, and to STOP the bilateral trade that makes up over one third of Israel’s GDP.

Only by applying that pressure can we deliver change and ensure that the world economy is not severely damaged as a consequence of the agenda of political Zionism.

Judaism is an ancient religion that prohibits the killing of innocents or the oppression of another people.

Zionism is a secular, political movement barely 100 years old, that seeks hegemony in the Middle East.

Contrary to often misplaced belief - there is little if any commonality between the two. Judaism teaches the sanctity of all life, the essential importance of human and civil rights, the equality of justice and respect for the law.

That both Palestinian and Israeli should have secure, independent states, is a given and there is an imperative to impose, and if necessary to police, a solution now. The world is tired, frustrated and frightened by the consequences of the intransigence of over half a century.

cv

 

JEW RASTA

4:14 PM ET

September 30, 2009

GDDRIVER

Very interesting points you bring up . Your facts are off but Allah means well.First things first there is no Palestine or Palestinians, The people your reffering to are bedouins, they have roamed the desserts for thousands of years have never contributed or in any way improved any place on this earth they have lived. The remaining people which have occupied the jewish land of Israel are refugees from Lebanon, Jordan ,Syria and Eygypt. These people shunned and hated by thier own Muslim bretheren for centuries, starved, killed and used in a political game by the area terror brokers in order to persuade the anti- semetic rhetoric that is there game . If you go back in history you will see that the first people to inhabit the region were the original twelve tribes of the Hebrew people, thier leader King David joined the tribes together as one people with Jerusalem as its capitol. Over the next thousands of years the land was fought over by bMuslims , Christians
and Jews alike for its control. The Jews were kicked out but guess what their back and there not giving it back, not going to die out ,walk into the sea or dissappear as you would like, sorry but kiss are ass. Now for your take on the worlds # 1 Terrorist nation Iran with there former bicycle thief president Mr A. A rogue nation which can't be trusted or let go unchecked without a worldwide catastrophe waitng to happen . Israel can have all the nuclear weapons it wants unchecked because as you said so eloquently the jewish people cherish life more than anything else .The Zionists are a made up concoction of the un educated and racist mind the jews with there love of life and liberty and the zionists are the same the only difference is that we will never again let anyone mistake our passivness and love of all people and living things which is the doctorine of our exsistence in this world.Back to Iran they are right now the most influential nation in terrorist activities, they fund , train and indoctrinate the Muslim youth of the world with there hate and # 1 agenda of Islamic facism to rule the world and kill all us infadel non believers , watchout world the jihadists are getting nuclear weapons that should give everyone in the world such warm and pink thoughts. Wake The F--k- up Nuke there ass and get it over vwith now

 

SIRIUS VAN HUYGENS

11:52 AM ET

October 1, 2009

Iran

The world better get used to the idea of Iran joining the club of nuclear powers. Unless you are planning to GO there, it will happen. It is only a matter of time. I also don't think that Israel would be foolish enough to try to strike (and I don't think that the U.S. would let them do it - there is more at stake than just the security of Israel). In the meantime Iran seems determined to use the current situation (including the recent missile tests) to extract concessions from the West while, perhaps, accepting to slow down its nuclear program.

Keep in mind that Pakistan and India are both nuclear powers and, yet, have not tried to destroy each other, in spite of the fact that they don't like each other too much. Likewise, Israel and Iran may have to learn to live together with the threat of MAD.