Think Again: Japan's Revolutionary Election

Don't believe the hype about Japan's new ruling party and the supposed revolution it is launching. As the new government completes its first month in office, all signs point to more of the same old stagnation in Tokyo.

BY PAUL J. SCALISE, DEVIN T. STEWART | OCTOBER 1, 2009

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama with reporters.

"The Recent Elections Are Revolutionary for Japan."

Hardly. A "revolution" implies a sudden, pervasive, and marked change in society or political economy. But the Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ's) politicians are not revolutionaries. Like those of the long-reigning Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), they are political opportunists without any long-standing ideological position or dominant constituency. Their only common desire is to be elected.

Nor is the leadership of the new ruling party all that different from the old. Many members of the DPJ leadership were at one point members of the LDP: Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, DPJ Secretary-General Ichiro Ozawa, Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii, Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada, Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa, and State Minister for Financial Services Shizuka Kamei, to name a few. Around half of the cabinet attended the University of Tokyo, the traditional feeder for government elites.

The Japanese people don't seem to think they've elected revolutionaries either. In polls, Japanese voters said they weren't electing radical change as much as expressing dissatisfaction with the LDP. Poll after poll indicates that constituents do not think Hatoyama is a great leader. And only a quarter of voters think the DPJ will lead Japan in the "right direction."

EVERETT KENNEDY BROWN/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: ELECTIONS, JAPAN, EAST ASIA
 

Paul J. Scalise is an adjunct fellow at the Institute of Contemporary Japanese Studies at Temple University, Japan, and an adjunct professor at Sophia University. Devin T. Stewart is a program director at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs and a Truman Security Fellow.

GRANT

6:18 PM ET

October 1, 2009

I don't claim to be an expert

I don't claim to be an expert on Japanese politics, but it hardly seems fair to declare that all will remain as before so soon. The writers did not have the courtesy to even wait for the arbitrary one hundred days commentators give American presidents. I would say, wait one year and then decide if there are signs of change or not.

 

TSHARRIS

12:11 AM ET

October 2, 2009

Think again

My response to Stewart and Scalise. They miss quite a lot.

http://www.observingjapan.com/2009/10/dpjs-quiet-revolution.html

 

PAR4

6:01 PM ET

October 2, 2009

Sounds just like this

Sounds just like this countries politics,same old same old.