Does China Have Taiwan in a Strait Jacket?

Six decades after the People's Republic of China was founded in the wake of Mao Zedong's victory over the nationalists, relations between the mainland and Taiwan are less contentious now than they have been in years. The May 2008 inauguration of Ma Ying-jeou as Taiwan's president put an end to Chen Shui-bian's tumultuous eight years in office, precipitating a thaw in what had been frosty relations between Taipei and Beijing.

But observers shouldn't assume that the ostensible rapprochement means that all problems are solved. As long as the stalemate at the heart of the problem across the Taiwan Strait -- how the island's status will ultimately be determined -- remains unresolved, China and Taiwan's relationship will remain unresolved as well. And nothing so far suggests that this impasse is any nearer to being settled today than when Chen was in power. With the strait continuing to be a potential flashpoint for crisis, then, maintaining a military balance between China and Taiwan thus remains vital for stability. But over the last decade, this balance has been tilting in Beijing's favor -- a development that could have serious implications not just for the China-Taiwan relationship, but for all of China's neighbors in the region, including the United States.

A key part of China's arsenal is a large force of conventionally armed short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs). The U.S. Department of Defense reported in this year's assessment of China's military that Beijing had deployed between 1,050 and 1,150 of these missiles and is adding to the stockpile at the rate of about 100 per year. The DoD report also says that the newer missiles offer "greater ranges, improved accuracy, and a wider variety of conventional payloads, including unitary and submunition warheads." These improvements change China's SRBMs from theoretical into actual threats.

A recent report that I coauthored with my RAND colleagues closely examines how China's new SRBMs could be used against Taiwan's air bases, assessing how many missiles of a given accuracy, carrying appropriate submunition warheads, would be needed to temporarily close every runway at each of Taiwan's 10 primary fighter bases.

Accuracy is measured by a missile's circular error probable (CEP), which is the radius of a circle around the target where 50 percent of the missiles fired will fall. Missiles with CEPs of 700-1,000ft (200-300m), accuracies characteristic of China's older SRBMs, are practically useless for attacking runways; they simply aren't sufficiently precise.

With smaller CEPs, however, such as the ones China is believed to be stockpiling, the job starts looking doable. With an accuracy of 130ft (40m), 200 SRBMs are needed. With very accurate missiles -- with CEPs of 16ft (5m) -- only 60 are required.

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UZBEKPOLICY

5:32 PM ET

October 3, 2009

Think about 1.3 Bln Trained Soldiers

Not everyone knows that, but the world's largest Communist state -- China -- trains its every single citizen, including female teens, in the armed forces. Every single Chinese high school student, either male or female, knows how to use firearms, knows how to kill by the time he graduate. Even Soviets didn't do that. The insanity of China's obsession with military force is unseen in the world history. And now this country is getting quickly armed with high-tech weapons aimed at long-hated neighbors namely Japan, Taiwan, India, South Korea, Indonesia and Australia.

Do we need to be worried? When peace-loving democracies like Japan and South Korea -- our vital allies and friends -- are anxious about it, we need to listen to them! China keeps Americans on cheap credit like a drug dealer keeps his clients on a dope. This country owns a pretty big piece of United States already. At any given moment, China can ruin American economy completely.

Make no mistake! China has an ambition -- to become the world's dominant superpower. Communists want to punish the Western countries and their friends for centuries of humiliation. And they will not stop in achieving their goals.

TECHNIPIRE

10:57 AM ET

October 4, 2009

Sorry,but what you wrote is absolutely false..

Chinese students do receive military training for several days in high school and university,but they are not taught how to kill,instead the goal of those military trainings is to teach them to live independently,to overcome difficulties and to know how to go through ordeals.Many countries have similar trainings for students,if you are not an illiterate,you should be aware of it.In some regions and nations,it is every grown man's duty to serve in the army.In the US,people can not only use firearms but can purchase one for fun.

You know nothing about this you stop making nonsense.This is an international website,not some other informal places where anyone can express anything representing his own intellectual level.So,please,please,do not smear the objective feature of FP,do not stand out and go to extreme.It is so fatuous that I can see no point to argue with you...

FAIRVOICE

2:24 PM ET

are you crazy?

"Not everyone knows that, but the world's largest Communist state -- China -- trains its every single citizen, including female teens, in the armed forces. Every single Chinese high school student, either male or female, knows how to use firearms, knows how to kill by the time he graduate."

Whoever said that is either crazy or totally ignorant. And I bet you probably have not been to China or even talked to many Chinese, otherwise you would have found this is totally crazy lie! And peace-loving democracies like Japan... Japan as a peace-loving nation? Read some history!

I am not saying China is perfect as it is - but at least be fair and don't lie! You are just making yourself sound like a fool!

3:32 PM ET

Dear Chins

Why you always go to personal attacks? Why whenever one expresses his opinion that is critical of China, you start a whole smearing campaign against that personality? It is so Chinese! Just like CCP is mounting a smearing campaign against Dalai Lama and Rebiya Kader, you guys here attack every person who has a different perspective. Have you been taught this tactic in school, too? Is it part of that military training or a chapter in brainwashing ideological class?

3:37 PM ET

It's funny how two Chins contradict each other

It's funny to watch how you guys contradict each other -- while one of you truthfully acknowledged that every Chinese student indeed goes through military training, another one accuses me of lying. Well, I guess it pretty much shows who is lying.

FREEDA2

10:56 PM ET

October 5, 2009

this is dumb

you've watched too many kung fu movies. how many bullies do you know that are chinese?
the only bullying you would get is not getting help sitting your exams. the only killer blows would be getting killed in your SAT exams (or whatever exam you sit).

Dont speak for Taiwan, you realise 50 years ago they were the same country? most have relatives acroos the taiwan straight in fujian.

dont speak for South Korea: since feudal years, china and SK have been close allies against japan. china, being asked by Korea, sent troops to protect the korean empire/tribe/shogun (i forget the name) against the japanese. you can still see this alliance today, as china supports north korea. if NK wasnt supported, it would collapse, and SK doesnt want millions of refugees.

Dont speak for japan: no one likes them. ask koreans, chinese, taiwanese, fillos, indonesians, malaysians, basically everyone. even the indians got butchered in ww2.

the weapons are aimed at america, and any other country that wants to invade. if you thought about it, china has been a victim more than any other country for the past 200 years: invaders include: UK, USA, France, Russia, Japan, Dutch, Portugal (macao), Germany.

11:26 PM ET

could you elaborate

while one of you truthfully acknowledged that every Chinese student indeed goes through military training, another one accuses me of lying.

first:

do receive military training for several days in high school and university,but they are not taught how to kill

second:

you would have found this is totally crazy lie!

do you mean one guy is saying they receive a few days training which isnt worth much, and the other guy is saying its a lie?
well, some foreign student told me everyone in the class just skipped it. his whole class went to the police station, got a pass, then went off to play computer games. anyway, all three statements contradict yours, which is

trains its every single citizen, including female teens, in the armed forces

and by the way, taiwan practises conscription, as does switzerland, germany, and other european countries. i guess white people/docile asians are ok?

FOREIGNER

10:38 PM ET

October 6, 2009

RE: this is dum by FREEDA2

I would like to ask one question, as you are speaking quite in general ;-)
I respect your opinion and your knowledge about history, but let me ask - have you ever been in Taiwan?

People I recognized there were of different opinion about your statements.

Does China Have Taiwan in a Strait Jacket?

With China-Taiwan relations nowhere near to being resolved, China's brand-new ballistic missiles are looking scarier than ever.

BY DAVID SHLAPAK | OCTOBER 2, 2009

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