It was late February 2003, a few weeks before the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and President George W. Bush's administration still lacked a real strategy for the would-be regional hegemon next door. As the Iran desk officer in the office of the secretary of defense, I felt desperate. We were about to invade Iraq without a definitive policy toward its most bitter foe. I feared a repeat of Vietnam and saw in Iran a new Ho Chi Minh Trail -- the enemy lifeline that snaked through Laos and Cambodia and helped dash U.S. hopes for Southeast Asia. I knew that the Islamic Republic would endeavor to replicate this disaster in the Middle East from the moment U.S. troops stormed Baghdad -- just as it had bloodied our noses in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere for decades.

In fact, I knew from my sources that Tehran had already prepared an entire network of operatives, proxies, and weapons ready to challenge the United States as soon as it toppled Saddam Hussein. I also knew it would be foolish to assume -- as many in the Bush administration did -- that Iraq's many pro-Iranian political and religious leaders could be trusted to cooperate with the United States' stated goal of building "a peaceful … democratic, and united Iraq." I had spoken with many of these people myself and was on friendly terms with the representatives of several prominent Shiite religious leaders. I was not an ideologue, and I spoke Farsi. I was steeped in Islamic culture and history. I suspected that many of these individuals were essentially Iranian agents -- including the opportunistic "man for all factions" Ahmad Chalabi, a suspicion eventually confirmed when I was later told he had encouraged the pro-Iranian Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to "dig in" against the U.S. Marines in Najaf.

I was not, however, very brave. I did not confront either my boss in the Office of Special Plans, Douglas Feith, or his boss, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, about my overriding fears that Iran could spoil our plans in Iraq -- and wreak havoc in the region. In the fevered atmosphere of the time, I didn't think they would take my concerns seriously, and I was convinced Feith was too ideologically committed to overthrowing Hussein and too enamored of Chalabi in particular to hear any doubts. So, in a foolish, spur-of-the-moment decision, I asked Steven Rosen, foreign-policy director of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, to approach the National Security Council's Elliott Abrams with my concerns. This action ultimately led to my indictment, in 2005, for espionage after Rosen relayed my comments to an Israeli diplomat. But my intention was never to leak secrets to a foreign government. I wanted to halt the rush to war in Iraq -- at least long enough to adopt a realistic policy toward an Iran bent on doing us ill.

Today, still serving my 10-month sentence, I take little solace in the knowledge that my concerns were justified. As early as 2004, the editor of Kayhan newspaper, the mouthpiece of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, boasted that "the American invaders are our hostage in Iraq."

Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: IRAN, MIDDLE EAST
 

Larry Franklin was Iran desk officer in the office of the U.S. secretary of defense from 2001 to 2004.

 

GRANT

1:26 AM ET

October 19, 2009

To put it bluntly, I'm amazed

To put it bluntly, I'm amazed that you had the nerve to actually post this. To start we have absolutely no evidence at the moment that any of what you propose would have worked, and given the Bush administrations efforts at regime change in other nations at best this would have sent efforts by the United States to deal with Iran to an even more ludicrous low if such a thing were possible. Furthermore, your mention of recognizing a government in exile would have not only been unrealistic but also would have given Iranian support for their regime the flavor of seeing their nation in immediate peril. Like it or not the Iranian people showed no signs then or now of accepting a government anywhere else but in Iran even if we could find someone with credibility.
The Solidarity movement in Poland only had its incredible success because the Soviet Union was caught in the midst of its largest crisis since its founding. Over ten thousand soldiers were dead from Afghanistan with far more injured, its economy was in shambles from decades of mismanagement and corruption, Gorbachev had recently informed the leaders of the Soviet nations that Russia would not intervene in a (failed) effort to force them to reform, and Roman Catholicism had proven itself to be the real authority in Poland and not Communism, and most importantly of all Communism was in essence something of a Russian export to Poland and not an millenia old part of Poland's culture. To put it another way, we had none of those things in Iran six or eight years ago and we have none of them today. Even with the recent crackdown and its probable effect of setting millions of Iranians against the current regime we have nothing to guarantee that they will even hold a protest against it, much less rebel.
Then there is the matter of nuclear weapons. Iran clearly felt threatened enough by the presence of United States soldiers on both sides (Afghanistan and Iraq) that it began a program for nuclear power. It is important to note that despite that, Iran has to date not produced a single nuclear weapon nor does it have the missiles necessary to actually reach the United States. I think it should be obvious that an actual plan by the United States to overthrow the Iranian government would have led them to acquire those missiles and to produce the necessary uranium to make them nuclear. Also I am unable to trust anyone who thinks in terms of "evil empires".
I find it interesting that in your improbable plan you make no mention of the Baluchi insurgents. Inadequate planning for the different groups in Iraq helped cause many problems, and it would be impossible to ignore a group that was capable only a day ago of assassinating multiple Revolutionary Guard officers in Iran.
Lastly, though I should think it obvious by now, I am very relieved that your plan was never implemented (to my knowledge). Efforts to build liberal democracies in Iraq and Afghanistan met with incredible difficulty and a third might very well have destroyed all our efforts.

 

PITT

6:27 AM ET

October 19, 2009

Grant

You sound like an agent for Iran.

Iran is only buiding nuclear weapons because US troops are in Iraq and Afganistan?
Not their goal of destroying Isreal?

I don't agree with everything in this article but I am not misguided like you.

 

GRANT

7:06 AM ET

October 19, 2009

Interesting then that Iran

Interesting then that Iran didn't start moving towards nuclear and power a few decades ago then, isn't it?

 

ARTUR_M

2:26 PM ET

October 29, 2009

And why should Iran destroy

And why should Iran destroy Israel? Tehran sees A-Bomb as a deterrent and a mean of gaining better position in the Middle East rather than as an offensive weapon built to wipe out any country.

Besides, ayatollahs "use" Israel primarily in their internal and external propaganda, trying to unite Iranians against acommon enemy and to become the only representative of the Palestinians. What would they do, if they hadn't Isreal?

 

DAVE1995

9:11 AM ET

October 19, 2009

I am disappointed at Israel Intelligence Services...

This idiot is a discredit to Israel's intelligence services.

 

MURUUJ

11:50 AM ET

October 19, 2009

Larry Franklin????

Why is a criminal convicted of passing sensitive information to another government allowed to write in this magazine? I guess his plan would have been awesome had he worked just a little closer with his chavariim.

 

GRANT

1:04 PM ET

October 19, 2009

Thanks for reminding me of

Thanks for reminding me of that, I had forgotten about it. Now I find his advice even less trustworthy. It is one thing to label a state an 'evil empire', it is quite another to give classified information to people who have no business seeing it in the hopes of covertly altering his own nation's foreign policy.

 

FJBIV4

1:01 PM ET

October 19, 2009

Hi Larry

Larry, I'm sorry you were convicted in such a useless case. It's not smart to talk to federal investigators without a lawyer.

That said, I should remind you that you were the guy who used to call from the Pentagon to record my license plate number so that I and Dr. Chalabi could visit your bosses; it's no wonder people didn't take you too seriously.

I also remember you as the man who sent Eric Prince of Blackwater to my living room to pitch a "protection" contract. Good thing I sent him packing.

Most of all. I remember you as the man who futilely tried to entrap me during a wiretapped phone call with the FBI on the line. You made the same discredited charge against Dr. Chalabi at that time. I told you it was horseshit then and I repeat it now. Dr. Chalabi is a patriotic Iraqi and has never worked for any intelligence agency - not the CIA nor the Iranian Muhkhabarat nor the Mossad nor MI6 despite unsubstantiated charges by people who should know better. (People say the same things about me -they're not true either.) You'll notice that both Dr. Chalabi and I are free men.

I was in Najaf in 2004 and participated in the talks with Sadr's forces. Not only did we not encourage them to "dig in", we were successful in forging a peace agreement in that misguided conflict. You can check with General Dempsey of the 1st Armored Division if you need confirmation.

Please don't wast everyone's time with further nonsense like this.

Francis Brooke

 

TRUTHER

12:01 AM ET

October 20, 2009

From Robert Baer re: Chalabi and Feith...

I went to see Feith in the summer of 2000, just about the time George W. Bush had won the Republican nomination for president, to talk about Iran. Feith was upbeat. He knew that if Bush won the White House, he could pretty much pick any job he wanted. He was in private law practice then, but he was a star in the Republican foreign policy brain trust

Before we met, I had been certain Feith would understand the threat Iran posed to Iraq. When he was in the Reagan administration, he surely had read the intelligence reports that Iran was behind the bombings of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut in April 1983 and the Marine barracks in October 1983. Feith also had lived through Iran-Contra and should have remembered how exiles and middlemen manipulated policy to their own ends, ending up deceiving both sides—Iran and the United States.

But as we sat at opposite ends of the couch in his office, Feith wanted to talk about Iraq, not Iran. Could the Iraqi exiles overthrow Saddam Hussein? Or more to the point, did Ahmed Chalabi and the Iraqi National Congress stand a chance of getting rid of them? Feith thought that Chalabi could, given a little help.

Listening to Feith, I wondered why he wasn't more skeptical of Chalabi, a lifelong exile who hadn't seen Baghdad since he was a child. More to the point, I wondered why Feith wasn't more suspicious about Chalabi's ties to Iran. In the nineties, Chalabi had traveled through Tehran to get into Kurdish northern Iraq. He also had unexplained ties to Iran's hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, one reason the Clinton administration dropped contact with him.

I pointed this out to Feith, telling how in 1994 and 1995, Chalabi had turned over Iraqi National Congress houses and cars to Iranian intelligence, which then used them to stage the assassinations of Iranian dissidents living in the part of Iraq Saddam controlled. Didn't this sound suspicious to Feith? And that wasn't to mention Iran's long-term interests in Iraq, with or without Chalabi. I wondered why Feith couldn't draw the obvious parallels between Iraq and Lebanon, which Iran was then effectively annexing.

The longer Feith didnt respond, the more I wondered whether he thought I was making all this up, trying for some inexplicable reason to undermine Chalabi. I told Feith that if George Bush won the presidency, he'd be in a position to confirm everything I'd just told him.

At that Feith stood abruptly and thanked me for my visit.

“Ahmed Chalabi will be a wonderful leader of Iraq,” he said firmly, before showing me out and closing the door behind me.

Pages 17-18, The Devil We Know: Dealing With The New Iranian Superpower

 

FJBIV4

8:17 AM ET

October 20, 2009

Bob Baer

Bob Baer worked closely with Dr. Chalabi in northern Iraq in 1996 operating out of Iraqi National Congress houses and using Iraqi National Congress cars. As an employee of the CIA at this time, he also arranged, through Dr. Chalabi, to communicate with Iranian operatives working in northern Iraq. Whatever his subsequent unsourced and undocumented assertions, these are undisputed facts.

Francis Brooke

 

F1FAN

1:36 PM ET

October 19, 2009

Really Mr. Franklin

'I did not confront either my boss in the Office of Special Plans, Douglas Feith, or his boss, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, about my overriding fears that Iran could spoil our plans in Iraq -- and wreak havoc in the region.'

And I'm sure the continued pay checks were well worth not voicing any of your concerns.

I'd also like to pint out that despite the billions spent toppling the USSR, it was glasnost that did the most to topple the Evil Empire.

I hope nobody is paying these neo-cons to write their views in FP? Political Science- one of the few fields where you can be consistently and demonstrably wrong and still make a living.

 

JOSHS

2:48 PM ET

October 19, 2009

Unbelievable!!

By his own admission, this guy was afraid to tell his boss what he really thought so instead he told a lobbyist who had no security clearance. Now FP is publishing his views from prison.

Since Larry Franklin is an Iran expert, he should know that the reason the mullah's came to power in the fist place is that we overthrew their democratically elected government and replaced it with our own stooge. Messing around with other people's governments is a practice that's blown up in our faces many times before. Let's not repeat the mistake.

 

JIM

3:17 PM ET

October 19, 2009

Aahahahahahaha

Who here remembers the scene in "In the Loop" in which the younger male lead tries to explain to his girlfriend that he cheated on her to stop the oncoming war...

 

EXOTTOYUHR

4:22 PM ET

October 19, 2009

What is _with_ the commentors here?

Has _everyone_ reading this magazine (and far too many of its authors, though obviously not Franklin or many other guest authors here) decided that they love every tyrannical regime on the map?

And it goes so far that a fair number of people seem to be fond of aspiring tyrants as well -- witness ForeignPolicy's sounding of the drums of withdrawal in Afghanistan. What's next, the special edition about how much ForeignPolicy.com and its commentariat love Omar al-Bashir?

 

EXOTTOYUHR

9:42 AM ET

October 20, 2009

I call it disgust, not paranoia.

I'm not looking for bogeymen; I'm looking for the doing of good and the opposing of evil.

 

EXOTTOYUHR

3:30 PM ET

October 20, 2009

It's yet simpler than that.

I think that we can agree, as one axiom of good and evil, that it is evil to be tortured and good not to be. I want Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld jailed for war crimes; but I am prepared to apply that standard throughout the world.

 

EXOTTOYUHR

3:35 PM ET

October 20, 2009

And who died and made W God, anyways?

It's very much _espirit d'escalier_ of me to follow up my post with another post of my own, but when I spoke of "the doing of good and the avoiding of evil," I wasn't thinking of Bush, I was thinking of Zoroaster. Again, see my title: is George W. Bush now the Supreme Being? Did all the civilizations of the world that have spoken of right and wrong, and the importance of doing the former and not the latter (that is to say, all of them, even the Pashtuns), learn the ideas at the knee of a Texas oilman? Do you know something about time travel that I don't?

 

EXOTTOYUHR

9:02 AM ET

October 21, 2009

Are you going to...

Are you going to contest my statement that it is better not to be tortured than to be tortured, or are you going to keep blowing your distinctly noxious kind of smoke?

 

EXOTTOYUHR

10:54 AM ET

October 21, 2009

I think we understand each other.

I agree that it's certainly important to exercise prudence -- to determine what one's government can or can't do to oppose tyranny (and reforming itself, which is generally easier than overthrowing and replacing a foreign government, should generally be the first thing to attempt) -- and I think that this is what you were mainly emphasizing. To have good intentions is good, but one also needs realistic consideration of conditions, and a reasonable prospect of success; I believe the relevant saying is "wise as serpents and innocent as doves."

What alarms me is when people go from "we don't have the means to oppose a given government" and/or "we don't want another Iraq" to "maybe these people we can't do anything about aren't so bad anyways" -- and my seeing the latter sentiment is what drove me to initially post.

On my assumption that it's the United States I'm talking about: that's where I live. If I were German I'd be assuming a reference case of Germany -- although I think I have learned something from this, that one should not automatically think in terms of reform for one's country and invasion for others'. If a country can be reformed, it should be reformed; I understand concern that the neoconservatives were eager to short-circuit that question. As to our possibilities on Iran right now, I'm not sure -- though it would be a good thing to get the current regime out of power over there...

 

BOREDWELL

11:59 PM ET

October 19, 2009

jihadiot

As you must be well aware, it is the consensus of the " mullahcracy's" observers and "experts" as well as the reformists that any attempt by America to vilify/slander the government/religious leaders or to ponder, let alone sanction a Bay of Pigs- like offensive incursion, would galvanize ALL Iranians to defend their sovereignty. Your ideas are not only melodramatic but by tainted by the same holier-than-thou jingoism the CIA used in overthrowing Salvator Allende. I'm sorry you're in prison but perhaps it would serve in your best interests to rethink your stated positions

 

ERRATIC

4:20 PM ET

October 20, 2009

Glad this guy's getting so much pushback

I don't know much about Larry Franklin's backstory, but the disingenuousness of this story verges on rabid frothery. His claims aside, an active destabilizing campaign of the scale described here would trigger a similar response from Iran. Despite inflammatory rhetoric, Iran's leadership has kept a remarkably tight leash on most of its assets - Iran's agents and proxies could stir things up considerably in the Middle East and beyond.

It's extremely likely that Iran and the US have a non-interference agreement in place - we don't mess with them, and they don't mess with us. Sort of a Monroe Doctrine - both sides have tested the boundaries, and talked a lot of smack about the other, but the absence of overt conflict between the 2 nations isn't a lucky coincidence.

Franklin's argument for an active destabilizing campaign against Iran would be acceptably ridiculous, if pushed by your average armchair neocon warrior. Coming from someone who claims insider status tells me that he thinks he can hoodwink his audience by throwing some bones to the left by criticizing Feith and Chalabi. Offensive and annoying, like a confused dog trying to sneakily hump your leg.

Granted, Franklin may be having problems keeping up with the media, in jail, although I'm guessing he's got it pretty cushy, relatively speaking. But the editors of Foreign Policy can't use the same excuse. Nor should they be similarly motivated to undermine fact-based reality by allowing junk like this to be published.

 

ITONLYSTANDSTOREASON

5:37 PM ET

October 20, 2009

It's who you know?

"So ... I asked Steven Rosen, foreign-policy director of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, to approach the National Security Council's Elliott Abrams with my concerns."

Our government is infiltrated by agents of a foreign power? How else could anyone imagine this was acceptable behavior?

Franklin may not have had disloyalty on his mind, but that's precisely the badness of it - he should have recognized the error. That he didn't suggests that this may be acceptable behavior in his cultural milleau. His prison term will hopefully send a message about discretion and divided loyalties.

Beyond that, his mental fantasies about regime change in Iran belong in the pages of a cheap novel.

 

JIM

12:34 PM ET

October 21, 2009

I do like it that...

he said straight out that the best way to approach Elliott Abrams is to be a lobbyist for Israel...

 

MAGUS

9:22 PM ET

October 22, 2009

Hit a sore spot?

The Iranian people have managed to demonstrably embarrass the theocrats on the world stage.
It seems the audience is desensitized to beautiful women getting shot to death by professional rooftop marksmen.
Perhaps if there were a few dogs or cats were shot while marching for their basic animal rights, then the American public and the rest of the free world would have been shocked into action.

As it stands, the contracts are too lucrative for countries other than the US to want to facilitate regime change in Iran.
And the US administration may be over-sold by the hyperactive regime lobby on the Islamic regime’s “stability and the prowess” in the region.
Or perhaps the administration is too mired in the “Blue” and “Red” feud to realize our economic woes would virtually disappear as soon as we get back our other true ally and the economic milk-cow in the region, Iran.

For the US to provide “unwavering support to the Iranian people” would presume a commitment, something the US is perceived to be increasingly lacking, specifically in the region; a factor Tehran has been and is exploiting effectively. Empowering Iranian people takes very little money (we already have the infrastructure in place) and much political resolve.

America has been coaxed to take her eyes off the ball and is distracted by masters of deception.
Our politicians, their ear-marking appetites whetted, are concerned with band-aids to stop the bleeding and employing their best capitol-hill know-how and know-who are jockeying in the dizzying frenzy to take a little money home to their own districts: too enamored to notice the angler dangling the lure.

Dr. Franklin, you have stirred many from a slumber and they are irritated.
You see clearly the reality on the streets in Iran – not just he posh north Tehran, but the projects and the tin-mud huts, where the masses subsist.
Your acute insight seems to shatter the images painted in the minds of some whose only source of information on Iran is fed from certain funded “study” seats at established academia powerhouses and or “successful businessmen and women” who are merely interested in opening of relations between the two countries.
Your acute insight seems to be a trait that has not been appreciated – namely by those whose minds were firmly set on notions they wanted to make happen, whatever the cost, and did.

Throughout all you have done, I see one thing paramount: America first.

Magus Irani

 

PINJAB ROHUNEY

12:18 PM ET

October 25, 2009

huda ha fez

hailey hoob!

 

SABABA03

9:45 PM ET

October 28, 2009

There is a better tried and proved method

Remember how the soviet Union was disintegrated, and what caused its demise. Read a pipe dream propaganda alas Reagan style lebeld "Star Wars" system.

If we use the same tactics, where the West will force the Mullahs to spend all their money on uselss weapon system, until nothing left for civil services, and their economy will collups.

With 80% of its revenue generated from oil income. No serious industrial or knowledge base economy. 80% of the population hates this regime. More then 60 opposition groups in and outside Iran. The farsi sect makes up only 60% of the total population in Iran.

Imagine now that, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait open their faucets a bit more, and flood the market with cheap oil, severely limit Iran's financial and budgetary system. Add the constant military challenge to the regime that is already paranoid. How long do you think these 7th century regime will last, before the people of Iran will rise, aided by agents inside the remove the regime. my guess, not long.

 

FG

2:13 PM ET

November 10, 2009

To Magus

Don't be bothered by the usual audience of this online forum. Most of them are absolutely primitive two-bit cavemen from the far-left, and/or radical extremists. Many of them are blinded by hatred. both the enemy of Isral and freedom-loving common folks in the East, especially Iran. They only have the Mullahs 'interests seriously at heart. I could gauge it all by 2 days since I began to read this site. If it were up to them everybody else could rot in their misery, but not them. They are meanwhile part and parcel of the abjectly hypocritical "University" elites who are swimming in their atrocios wealth on the back of the public.

 

BAHMAN AZIMI

9:14 AM ET

November 17, 2009

Not So

Larry, you and I both know you don't speak Persian and can't read Persian.