Why Al Qaeda Wants a Safe Haven

Take it from someone who has spent the last half-decade studying terrorist plots: A homeless al Qaeda is the best guarantee against large-scale attacks.

BY JIM ARKEDIS | OCTOBER 23, 2009

As deliberations about the Obama administration's strategic direction in Afghanistan unfold, the White House is weighing whether al Qaeda, in fact, needs an Afghan safe haven -- an expanse of land under the protection of the Taliban -- to reconstitute its capability to attack the United States. Many noted scholars doubt it. In a recent Washington Post op-ed, Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass bluntly stated, "Al Qaeda does not require Afghan real estate to constitute a regional or global threat."

He's wrong. Although the group has been significantly weakened since late 2001, the only chance al Qaeda has of rebuilding its capability to conduct a large-scale terrorist operation against the United States is under the Taliban's umbrella of protection.

Objections like Haass's are rooted in the following arguments: that terrorists don't need physical space because they can plot online; that the London and Madrid bombings prove deadly attacks can be planned in restrictive, Western, urban locations under the noses of local security services; and that denying terrorists one safe haven will simply compel them to move to another lawless region.

I spent five years as a counterterrorism analyst for the Pentagon and rigorously studied plots from Madrid to London to 9/11. The above arguments may have merit in a piecemeal or abstract sense, but fall apart in the specific case of what we all dread: a large-scale, al Qaeda operation aimed at the United States.

It is certainly true, for example, that terrorist groups can accomplish much online. Individuals can maintain contact with groups via chat rooms, money can be transferred over the Web (if done with extreme caution), and plotters can download items like instruction manuals for bomb-making, photographs of potential targets, and even blueprints for particular buildings.

But all the e-mail accounts, chat rooms, and social media available will never account for the human touch. There is simply no substitute for the trust and confidence built by physically meeting, jointly conceiving, and then training together for a large-scale, complex operation on the other side of the world.

STR/AFP/Getty Images

 

Jim Arkedis is the director of the National Security Project at the Progressive Policy Institute. He was a counterterrorism analyst with the Naval Criminal Investigative Service from 2002 to 2007.

CHRIS_T

1:48 PM ET

October 24, 2009

We created the terrorism

The fundamental problem, sir, is this: you will never eliminate terrorism while the US's foreign policy is unjust.

A Jewish pro-Zionist UN Jurist (Mr. Goldstone) found that Israel has committed war crimes in Gaza. And what does the US do? Bury the report.

Since IDF is now a confirmed War Criminal entity sending ANY US military aid to the Israelis is in DIRECT contravention of our Arms Export Control Act. Why do we still support these war criminals?

I am not saying that Hamas is blame-free. But we don't give them cluster bombs to use on children either.

Since we support war criminals with helicopters and cluster bombs, is it a surprise that we get terrorism in return?

As soon as we stop messing around overseas (witness our clear involvement with the terrorist murder of 5 Iranian revolutionary guards recently) we will get blowback terrorism. It does not matter whether or not AQ has any safe havens or not -- regular people can become radicalized by the sheer extent of our injustice abroad.

Force -- even when wielded by the seemingly strong against the nominally weak -- continues to be an exceedingly uncertain instrument. The United States' penchant for projecting power has created as many problems as it has solved. Genuinely decisive outcomes remain rare, costs often far exceed expectations, and unintended and unwelcome consequences are legion.

The pursuit of US military dominance is an illusion, the principal effect of which is to distort strategic judgment by persuading policymakers that they have at hand the means to make short work of history's complexities. The real need is to wean the United States from its infatuation with military power and come to a more modest appreciation of what force can and cannot do.

We have to come to the painful conclusion that we have created the terrorism that we are subject to via our terrible foreign policies. (In this case directly: we worked in 1980s to radicalize the pustuns). No lack of safe havens will protect us from our well-earned blowback.

 

ICARVE

11:13 PM ET

October 25, 2009

Not so.

This article is not about Hamas or the IDF. It's about AQ. Recall that the former (Hamas) was under assault by an AQ-related group in the Gaza Strip recently, the claim being that they were essentially "too liberal" in their adjudication of Islamic law. That deserves a moment's pause, I think. The blowback approach to explaining AQ operations and intent is seductive but ultimately limited and myopic. That group's leadership is consciously manipulating that very interpretation, and doing so basically for recruitment purposes: but their broader vision is less about "justice" and more about establishing a totalitarian vision in the here and now. Review the words of AQ's second in command in "The Al Qaeda Reader" by Raymond Ibrahim; it is not spin, it's simply translated texts from theological tracts, pronouncements and postings on the web from the group's leadership. Truly eye-popping. You can't just explain it away by pointing to Palestine and cluster bombs: they're spiteful of democracy itself, of secularism, of anything that flouts a strictly Islamic world-view. They identify moderation in Islam as a "prostration to the West". I have never read anything like it, excepting perhaps Mein Kampf, and I'm prepared to believe them when they say/write these things. Why not consider taking them at their word? Look, I'm not saying there's NO validity to your critique; I'm open to joining you in criticism of US foreign policy where appropriate, but let's not take our eye off the ball in doing so.

 

NIMS

11:13 AM ET

October 26, 2009

Of course!

Yes, yes, it all goes back to the Jews. If only you could do something about the Jews, the world's problems would be solved. Jews Jews Jews Jews Jews.

Where have I heard this before?

You've got the worst of early 20th century European hate combined with late 20th century American myopia - everything that everyone does, everywhere on the planet, is a response to the U.S. No one outside of the U.S. could possibly come up with their own ideas or goals or plans for domination, could they? Of course not. Regional, ethnic, religious, political, population-driven, resource-driven conflict? Irrelevant! Its all about America! We're the center of the universe, and world history began in 1945.

Good grief.

 

CHRIS_T

2:26 PM ET

October 26, 2009

Calm down idiot

It is not about Jews.

I am a Jew.

It is about militant Isareli zionists that we support.

Zionism is a political movement that uses Judaism for its ends. Zionism is the root of anti-Semitism. In the end, anti-Semitism is actually quote useful for Zionism.

Think before typing.

I am saying AQ's manipulation of our immoral support of Israel is effective. Can you dispute that they are effective? Do you think it is moral to support war criminals?

 

CHRIS_T

1:56 PM ET

October 24, 2009

PS:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/24/opinion/l24iran.html?ref=opinion

Terrorism in Iran

Published: October 23, 2009

To the Editor:

Re “Twin Bombings Kill 5 Commanders of Revolutionary Guards Corps in Iran” (news article, Oct. 19):

The recent cowardly and inhuman act of terrorism in Iran perpetrated by a foreign-backed terrorist group and orchestrated from beyond Iran’s borders is depicted in your report as a sign of “escalation in hostilities between Iran’s leadership and the Baluchi ethnic minority.”

Nothing could be further from the truth. How can the perpetrators of this heinous act of terrorism, which claimed the lives of dozens of Iranian citizens, including Iranian Baluchis, represent Iranian Baluchis? How can the leaders of the terrorist group Jundallah claim any constituency among the Baluchi people while the same Baluchis have been the main target of their brutal terrorist campaign?

It would be naïve to give any credence to baseless claims of Jundallah, whose ties with foreign terrorist groups, extremist elements and some opportunist governments are more than clear to us. But our nation is undeterred by such brutal acts of terrorism sponsored by the enemies of Iran, who seek in vain to play the “ethnic card” against Iran.

The Iranian government and nation are fully determined to eliminate terrorism and bring the perpetrators and organizers of this heinous crime to justice.

Mohammad Reza Bak Sahraei
Second Counselor
Mission of the Islamic Republic
of Iran to the United Nations
New York, Oct. 20, 2009

 

AHSON HASAN

3:28 PM ET

October 26, 2009

Why Al Qaeda Wants a Safe Haven

Lets, for a second, forget about this Jewish-Muslim rivalry. To my mind, there is no real conflict - deep down we are all human beings and we all claim that our respective religions stand for peace. There is absolutely nothing to fight over. It is all political, territorial, geographical and economics based hypocrisy. God did not create Jews and Muslim - He created humans being. He did not want us to fight. It is us who argue, start fights and kill each other in the name of religion.

And, it not all horrendous - I've seen Jews and Muslims living, working together. There are bright spots that we mustn't ignore. We can strongly work for a better tomorrow.

Here's a word of advice for the Muslims - leave the Jews alone and stop acting like born losers. The Jews are strong politically and economically because they are smart and intellectually gifted. Why don’t you try to raise the level of your game, sit across the table and talk instead of throwing rocks at the Israeli forces? Let's play a peace instead of violence.

Here's another thing I want to tell the Muslim. Israel historically is Jewish territory. It belonged to the Jews and it should stay with the Jews. Its only a matter of recognizing the existence of the Jewish right to live peacefully within certain parameters and Israel's integrity. Once the Muslims stop hallucinating about 'regaining' the lost territories, the stress and pressure will begin to ease off itself.

As for al-Qaeda, they are devils in the garb of human beings. It is an extremist ideology that is destroying the very fabric of mankind. What is happening in Pakistan these days is testimony of the fact that those within the Pakistani setup are perhaps sympathetic toward the Taliban. Muslim extremist represent the worst side of human race - can we even think about associating them with any religion or faith or consider them as followers of God?

We need to stay positive and stop accusing each other. Bickering amongst ourselves only strengthen the hands of the extremists. Al-Qaeda needs to be rooted out - we are all cognizant of that; however, we, as people need to strategize smartly and unite against this blatant insanity.

 

CHRIS_T

4:11 PM ET

October 26, 2009

Stay Positive

Great.

And all of this has NOTHING to do with the U.S.

So Let's:

1. Stop funding the Israeli War Criminal War Machine, IDF

2. Stop funding Egypt, Pakistan, etc. also

Our founding fathers did NOT want us to get involved overseas like this, OK?

And nice try faking an Arab name -- Ahson is not spelt that way fool.

 

CHRIS_T

5:04 PM ET

October 26, 2009

It is about LAND not religion

Judaism does NOT lay claim to Occupied Palestine.

Zionism does.

This fight is over land, not religion.

If the Zionists return the land to Arabs, there will be peace instantly.

Yes, there sure is a lot of anti-Semitism in the world. But you fail to note one of the main causes: Zionism.

Since the early 20th century, Zionists have waged a relentless campaign to equate their political movement with the Jewish religion. They have largely succeeded; in the eyes of many, Zionism and Judaism are one and the same, and opposition to Zionism becomes opposition to Judaism. But that doesn't change the fact that the two are antithetical.

I am a Jew, and I know from my religious education that if the Jewish people are to attain the Holy Land, it will be through the Messiah, and not with guns. Jews are taught to heal the world ("tikkun olam"), not to displace families, create refugee camps, and practice collective punishment such as that used against Jews in the past.

So long as this confounding of Zionism with Judaism continues, it will sow anti-Semitism. But, in the end, anti-Semitism serves the Zionist ideology.

Real Jews oppose the concept of a zionist Israel.

Zionism is a political movement.

 

JOHN SCHWARTZ

12:03 PM ET

October 27, 2009

Is Chris a Jewish name?

I'd sooner believe Ahson is a Muslim than Chris is a Jew.

 

CHRIS_T

6:36 PM ET

October 27, 2009

OK, Abdul. Why should I care

OK, Abdul. Why should I care what you think, if that is the extent of your commenting?

 

SLIPTIP

8:45 PM ET

November 5, 2009

Israel historically is Jewish

Israel historically is Jewish territory? And what do you base this on? The fairy tale more popularly known as The Bible? Did the Jews just grow out of the soil? What do you mean it "belonged" to the Jews? Who says? You? The figment of our imaginations called "God"? The only reason Israel happens to "belong" to the Jews is that Britain and the U.S. allowed it to happen. No other reason.

 

THE REMORSELESS HUNTER

11:14 PM ET

October 26, 2009

Stick to the script please

As a former intelligence officer and writer on terrorist matters, I regard this article as among the best written on US websites. The case is stated clearly and unambiguously. It cuts to the matter of Al Qaeda and the Taliban and while they are not one and the same, they are interested in jihad on a worldwide basis. Osama bin Laden described Afghanistan under the Taliban (before US/UN intervention) as the ideal Islamic state. What unites these groups is a profound hatred of Western society, its freedoms and human rights. America is variously depicted as the great Satan and Israel the lesser Satan but not just by Al Qaeda or the Taliban but the madman in Tehran, Ahmed Dinnerjacket.

The poverty of comments following this article is quite alarming. The US is experiencing a wave of domestic terrorism, unprecedented since 9/11. It is perfectly true that the West and the US in particular armed Islamic resistance forces against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, largely through the pipeline of the Pakistani ISI. That was part of the Cold War: detente existed only between the superpowers and their allies and countries such as Afghanistan, parts of Africa and Asia were open for proxy wars. The basic problem was that we did not understand Islamic fundamentalism and we still don’t! Samuel Huntington was right when he talked about a clash of civilizations - modern Western liberal democracy in conflict with theocratic forces, which have never experienced the equivalent of a reformation and their laws are those of the sixth century.

To use such an article as the basis for arguing about Hamas and the IDF is cretinous irresponsibility. Find another platform for that argument! We can admit that we helped to create a ”Sword of Allah,” which turned in our hands. However, the US, the UK and any other country attacked by Islamic fundamentalists has every right to say “never again.” That phrase is not the exclusive property of Israel, nor should it be. We are in this together.

 

CHRIS_T

1:19 AM ET

October 27, 2009

People like you

People like you ("Intelligence" officers) created this problem by, eg, helping overthrow the democratically elected govt of Iran in 1953.

Yeah, let me think in narrow terms which does not cut to the heart of why we terrorism: we have terrorism because of our failed foreign policy.

I wonder why Norway does not suffer such terrorism, if it os just Huntington thesis.

Why don't you found your own blog and make dumb editorial comments there ass?

 

JOHN SCHWARTZ

12:14 PM ET

October 27, 2009

Utter nonsense

I'm sure we all remember what a ruthless bunch of imperialists the Kenyans and Tanzanians were before Al Qaeda bombed them.

Remember the Spanish troops that were gunning down Palestinians before the Madrid bombings?

No, of course not. Al Qaeda has no concept of just war, or casus belli. They are pathological. Norway has been spared by luck, and probably the expertise of their security services. Al Qaeda certainly isn't interested in sparing them. Given the opportunity they would be just as happy murdering in Oslo as in Omaha.

 

CHRIS_T

6:38 PM ET

October 27, 2009

It was the American interests

It was the American interests in Africa dumbass.

It was because Spain was allied with the US.

No more problems in Spain after their troops left.

 

CENOBITE30

9:40 AM ET

October 28, 2009

If you are suggesting that

If you are suggesting that Spain hasn't suffered any more attacks because they adjusted their foreign policy in the wake of the 2003 bombings, then by that logic our foreign policy must be pretty satisfactory to AQ since we haven't suffered an attack since 2001. That must mean that Bush was an isolationist.

 

CHRIS_T

5:25 PM ET

October 29, 2009

Yes dumbass -- our soldiers

Yes dumbass -- our soldiers have not suffered ANY AQ attacks since 2001. You are correct. You must have worked for the Bush admin.

Go fight with our soldiers you genius. You may learn a thing or three.

 

CHRIS_T

1:28 AM ET

October 27, 2009

A real Intelligence Officer and not a poseur

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/graham-e-fuller/global-viewpoint-obamas-p_b_201355.html

 

CHRIS_T

1:34 AM ET

October 27, 2009

Ahmed Rashid on Af/Pak

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/22274

Seven years after September 11, "the US-led war on terrorism has left in its wake a far more unstable world than existed on that momentous day in 2001":

Rather than diminishing, the threat from al Qaeda and its affiliates has grown, engulfing new regions of Africa, Asia, and Europe and creating fear among peoples from Australia to Zanzibar. The US invasions of two Muslim countries...[have] so far failed to contain either the original organization or the threat that now comes from its copycats...in British or French cities who have been mobilized through the Internet. The al Qaeda leader...is still at large, despite the largest manhunt in history....

Afghanistan is once again staring down the abyss of state collapse, despite billions of dollars in aid, forty-five thousand Western troops, and the deaths of thousands of people. The Taliban have made a dramatic comeback.... The international community had an extended window of opportunity for several years to help the Afghan people—they failed to take advantage of it.

Pakistan...has undergone a slower but equally bloody meltdown.... In 2007 there were 56 suicide bombings in Pakistan that killed 640 people, compared to just 6 bombings in the previous year....

In 2008, American power lies shattered.... US credibility lies in ruins.... Ultimately the strategies of the Bush administration have created a far bigger crisis in South and Central Asia than existed before 9/11.

It is difficult to disagree with any of this. Eight years of neocon foreign policies have been a spectacular disaster for American interests in the Islamic world, leading to the rise of Iran as a major regional power, the advance of Hamas and Hezbollah, the wreckage of Iraq, with over two million external refugees and the ethnic cleansing of its Christian population, and now the implosion of Afghanistan and Pakistan, probably the most dangerous development of all.

Ahmed Rashid's book convincingly shows how the Central and Southern Asian portion of this tragedy took shape in the years since 2001. Rashid has long been an authority on the politics of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia.

 

CHRIS_T

6:42 PM ET

October 27, 2009

Keep funding the Israeli war

Keep funding the Israeli war criminals and keep getting terrorism folks.

 

SLIPTIP

8:34 PM ET

November 5, 2009

It doesn't take a whole country

"In the end, a safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border is as good as it gets for al Qaeda's chances to launch a large-scale attack against the United States."
So how big of an area are we talking about? The entire border? A few square miles? A quarter of the country? Half? The premise of this totally flawed article is that we need to secure the entire country of Afghanistan else it be used as one vast training ground. Granted, the "human touch" the author mentions is absolutely necessary. But all you really need are a few football fields worth of space to train for a mission like 9/11. To suggest we should subdue an entire nation in order to deny the enemy a training space is ridiculous. Al Qaeda needs a place to train, yes. But it doesn't require the vast expanse of Afghanistan. A few acres in Waziristan, Pakistan would do nicely. The whole premise of Afghanistan as safe haven is false.