Broadly speaking, I support the argument -- made mostly by the American left -- that expanding and improving ties between Washington and Tehran would help mitigate the detention of innocents in Iran -- whether Iranian or American.
I also agree with the counterargument, made mostly by the right, that Tehran's hard-liners use continued enmity with the United States in order to blame Washington when, among other things, their population rises up, economic malaise worsens, or a terrorist attack happens in Baluchistan.
Unfortunately, the difficulty of potential engagement has increased significantly in recent months as any remaining moderates and pragmatists have essentially been purged from the Iranian government's power structure. The color spectrum of the regime now ranges from pitch black to dark grey. And insofar as the continued detention of U.S. citizens in Tehran decreases the likelihood of a diplomatic breakthrough with Washington, the interests of at least some of these hard-liners will be served.
Sadly, languishing in Evin prison, my friend Kian understands this dynamic only too well.
Shortly after President Obama's speech in Cairo last June, Kian wrote, "Iranians might ponder Barack Obama's challenge to Iran to articulate ‘not what it is against, but what future it wants to build.' Each Iranian will wonder how much thought our rulers or our fellow countrymen have given to this critical question and why answers to it are so vague and so few."
AFP/Getty Images
Formerly based in Tehran, Karim Sadjadpour is an associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
I hope students and scholars of international relations are beginning to understand the extent of the Islamic Republic’s increasingly radicalized behavior. Thankfully, Karim Sadjadpour (through his diligent research on Iranian affairs and his personal contacts with Iranian dissidents) is one such academic that is slowly exposing Khamenei and Ahmadinejad for the type of people they truly are: Islamic ideologues that will use every state-tool at their disposal to weed out moderates.
If last June's presidential election was not evidence enough- a scene that included scores of young Iranian protesters being beaten, rounded up, and detained by the many branches of Tehran's security service- then Iran's campaign of state-sponsored show trials will hopefully add to the hypothesis. And for some reason still unknown to me...despite the purging of pragmatics from government and military positions- the United States under President Barack Obama still believes that open-ended engagement is the long-term policy option.
Last summer's election fiasco, as well as the criminal charges that are so-often trumped up by the Iranian Government, both demonstrate one unfortunate fact; Iran's ultraconservatives are winning in the political sphere. In fact, this comes at the same time that President Ahmadinejad is bolstering the political, economic, and social authority of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Contrary to what many believe, the Guardian Council, the office of the president, and even the Supreme Leader himself are all pressured by the country's most elite military wing.
Given the fact that Ahmadinejad was a former officer in the IRGC, this transformation may not be a surprise to many. Certainly, if we all possessed Sadjadpour''s Islamic credentials, this religious-turned-military autocracy would have been perceived as an expected development (many authoritarian governments go through a similar path). However, to the White House and to the majority of Americans who possess an ignorant understanding of the Islamic Republic and the way it operates, an IRGC-controlled government is beyond frightening.
Is the Islamic Republic actually evolving into a more militaristic direction, much the same way that Pakistan drifted towards a military dictatorship under General Pervez Musharraf? Geneive Abdo seems to think so (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/07/the_rise_of_the_Iranian_dictatorship).
Nuclear weapons and belligerent rhetoric aside, we could very well be witnessing a new generation of Shia radicals with a tendency for aggression. In a way, I think some analysts would actually prefer Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's traditional vision for the Islamic Republic than the confrontational outlook that so many Iranian hardliners are currently advocating. Compared to today's ultra-fundamentalists, even his strict Islamic belief can be labeled as somewhat reasonable and arbitrary.
-Daniel R. DePetris
http://depetris.wordpress.com
Next protest day in Iran , November 4th 2009
Next protest day in Iran , November 4th 2009
The green movement is still alive.
Well what does the world want? When the United States does try to build democracies we are accused (unfairly) of building empires and not understanding the situation (more fairly). When we make efforts to negotiate we're accused of giving in to dictators and supporting undemocratic governments.
"Iran's New Hostage Crisis": unadulterated sensationalism
The article's title is meant to conjure up memories of the old hostage crisis. What are the similarities between the old and the new crises?.
Recall that in the old "hostage crisis", Iranian students with Khomeinei's backing took 52 American diplomat as hostages.
In the new "hostage crisis", according to the author:
"In addition to Kian, Iran is now holding at least five other American citizens against their will, including three young hikers -- Shane Bauer, Sarah Shourd, and Josh Fattal (an outspoken Palestinian-rights activist) -- detained in June along the Iran-Iraq border in Kurdistan."
Note that among the six Americans that "Iran is now holding... against their will" are "three young hikers" who had illegally crossed into Iran from Kurdish region of Iraq -- a region that is the base for the Kurdish terrorist group, PYJAK. Also, since 2003, the Kurdish region of Iraq has become a playground for Mossad agents. Also worthy of note is that US forces in Iraq had taken five Iranian diplomats as prisoners (hostages?) and held for over two years prior to their unavoidable release subsequent to the transfer of sovereignty to Iraq earlier in the year
I assume that the three remaining "new hostages", including Karim Sadjadipour, are all Iranian-Americans. From the perspective of the Iranian authorities, however, the three are Iranians. The three must have entered Iran with their Iranian passport and were allowed to stay and work there as Iranians They were arrested and imprisoned along with hundreds of other Iranians after the fraudulent presidential election. The three are as much "hostages" as hundreds of other political prisoners in Iran. Ironically, a great number of the "opposition" leaders that were arrested and imprisoned after the June election were "hostage-takers" in the "old hostage crisis".
It is difficult to discern what the author wishes to gain from such a sensational article. He is smart enough to know that such a sensational article will not help free his friend, Karim Sadjadipour. Who are his audience? Would such an audience use this sensational article to promote US-Iranian reconciliation? I have my doubts.
Fascists abuse the innocent because they can
A search for deep meanings in the actions of fascist thugs such as the current government of Iran is pointless. Fascist thugs abuse the innocent because they can. To the fascist mind, only those who wholeheartedly support the regime should be allowed to exist, and all others should be broken or killed.
3 bigots getting a taste of their own medicine
Bauer, Shourd, and Fattal are the usual left-wing anti-Israel bigots, constantly attacking Israel for defending itself while ignoring the real and severe human rights abuses of their patron, Syria, and even endorsing the regime! The Syrian regime cuts people up limb from limb, like they did to Salim Al-Lawzi, yet Shroud falsely claims that Israel is oppressing the Golan Heights - in reality the Druze are afraid of Syria getting the Golan Heights, as both Obama and Bush have pushed for.
Nor is it likely they just happened to be hitchiking in Iran. The fact is these 3 backers of the left-wing, antisemitic totalitarian regime of Syria fell afoul of the theocratic, even more antisemitic regime of Iran. It is poetic justice that they were arrested, and even so they haven't suffered the agonies that their friends the Assads have inflicted on the innocent.
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