• NOVEMBER 22, 2009
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Nuclear Network Theory

We all know that terrorism comes from nonstate actors. So why is the nonproliferation world still focused on rogue countries instead?

BY MICHAEL KRAIG | OCTOBER 30, 2009

As Iran replies to an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) proposal to process their uranium abroad, just days after inspectors from that agency got their first glimpse of the newly revealed Iranian nuclear site near Qom, it's a good time to take stock of U.S. President Barack Obama's Nobel-winning nonproliferation drive. From the sight of it, there is much good work being done. Bilateral talks with Russia to reduce stockpiles are moving apace. Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council is considering what to do with troublesome cases in Iran and North Korea. The president has even called a summit of the world's major nations and nuclear energy-capable countries, now slotted for April 2010.

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The hope is that these efforts will help check the worst-case scenario from ever taking hold -- terrorists getting their hands on nuclear weapons. But there's just one problem: The United States is looking for nukes in all the wrong places. Nuclear terrorism won't come from countries; it will come from vast networks of operatives with only tenuous links to states. Nor are terrorists likely to get their nuclear material from rogue regimes. Far more probable is that they will steal it or obtain it through the growing global black market. If this is to be prevented, the United States and its allies will have to give their counterproliferation mindset a sweeping overhaul.

Today's terrorist threats are far less tangible than the traditional, state-centric security ones embodied by such countries as Iran, North Korea, India, Pakistan, and Israel. Rather than diplomatic channels, terrorist networks use advanced information technology to advance their ideology, goals, and missions. They are bound by none of the norms and restraints of states.

Of course, none of this is news in the world of counterterrorism. And in the years following the September 11 attacks, the U.N. Security Council passed a set of resolutions mandating that all states take action to tackle nonstate extremists with violent goals. The most important of these for nonproliferation was U.N. Resolution 1540, which calls on countries to monitor and regulate the activities of illicit nonstate actors while securing potentially deadly materials that could be used to fashion a weapon of mass destruction.

The biggest challenge relates to highly enriched uranium (HEU) -- the stuff that could be most easily made into a crude nuclear device. A "gun type" warhead would require only two shaped blocks of HEU, slammed together by a focused conventional explosive, to generate a small but real fission reaction. Making the weapon would be fairly easy from a technical perspective once the necessary amount of HEU is obtained; instructions can even be found on the Web.

The key question, then, is how would terrorist groups get their hands on raw nuclear goods? Contrary to popular belief, a state like Iran is extremely unlikely to pass along its HEU to a nonstate group. States value nuclear material for its strategic prestige and deterrent value within the context of a central government arsenal; even the roguest of rogue states aren't in the business of giving highly coveted nukes to a group whose actions they cannot predict or control.

That means the most likely channels of acquisition by an al Qaeda-type group would be illicit purchase or stealing. Terrorists would have to finance their acquisition of HEU, which would be expensive even if the HEU were stolen, not bought. To do so, they would likely use the profits from trafficking in illicit drugs, arms, or people; payoffs from indirect investments in legitimate companies; dividends from the bribery or blackmail of officials; and countless other forms of criminal activity and corruption.

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Michael Kraig is a senior fellow at the Stanley Foundation.

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BOREDWELL

8:19 PM ET

October 30, 2009

DUH

If Iran, after years of prioritizing a well-funded HEU project, is only now seeking to have it enriched abroad, how would raw uranium benefit even the most sophisticated band of terrorists? The transfer of such materiel would involve years of scrupulous planning on top of the years it would take to recruit an amenable thief or scientist charged with accessing such a valuable treasure trove. Even if it were bought on the black market, the HEU would have had to have been obtained from a state resource. Surely such a heist would leak out and the ensuing scrutiny would be immediate and intense. Even for purposes of this conjecture, given the transaction had been successful, where would the buyers store it? The logistics are mind-boggling! Even if the terrorists have the will the way remains perilous. They would, it seems to me, elect to obtain a more readily available fuel source for their bomb making. I'd monitor the internet and retailers of ingredients that could be made into chemical weapons. Wasn't it the purchase of an unseemly number of bottles of hydrogen peroxide that resulted in the recent arrests of would-be bomb makers in Colorado and NY? Big Brother is obviously watching out.

  REPLY
 

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

9:07 PM ET

October 30, 2009

Where else will terrorists look?

Undoubtedly, the most horrific act of terrorism would involve a nuclear strike on an American city. Washington officials have been formulating defense policy on this belief since President Clinton's administration in the 1990's; U.S. planners have been doing everything in their power to come up with a viable long-term strategy dealing with the beginning and aftermath of a nuclear attack. With the terrorist threat only increasing in significance, the widespread fear of a nuclear terrorist incident will only frighten more Americans in the near future.

Likewise, with all of the talk about "rogue states-" that unique club of countries that are both dangerous to international security and destabilizing to their respected regions- it is easy to get carried away about the state-nuclear terror connection. After all, one of the primary arguments for the U.S., Israeli and European Governments concerning Iran's enrichment cycle is directly related to this terrorist fear; with a nuclear-weapons capability, nations like Iran or Syria may pass on nuclear technology to like-minded proxies (such as Hezbollah). In fact, for all of the bickering in the United States Congress about foreign-policy issues, the state-proxy nuclear relationship seems to get across partisan divides.

Therefore, concentrating solely on rogue states as the major nuclear source for terrorist groups is an obvious exercise. But it is more than that...it is the only source that the international community can pinpoint with complete accuracy. Sure, terrorists can buy enriched uranium on the black-market; paying top-dollar to acquire some of the most pure weapons-grade material science has to offer. But where would this weapons-grade material come from? Did it come from some kind of mysterious creature? How about from the soil? Of course not! It came from a legitimate nation that, for some reason or another, either decided to sell this information or get rid of it altogether.

This is why Iran and Pakistan worry me so much. One is on its way into the nuclear-club (if the United States does not do something concrete about the problem) and one already possesses close to 100 warheads. If Pakistan was not the global home to all sorts of terrorists, this may not be a problem. But, as we all know from recent Taliban attacks across the country, that statement is nothing but a delusional fantasy.

Likewise, I am not so convinced that states will exercise self-restraint with its nuclear resources at every possible turn. Generally, when a national economy starts going down the toilet, a state will try pretty much anything to prevent an incoming tidal wave. Take North Korea, one of the poorest and most isolated countries on the face of the earth; the same country that has been selling nuclear secrets to other states for the past ten years.

Sure, Pakistan may not be as suicidal as North Korea. At least not when billions of dollars of U.S. aid keep flowing in.

-Daniel R. DePetris
http://depetris.wordpress.com

  REPLY
 

HAIRYSTEVE20

10:00 PM ET

October 30, 2009

Drivel

"A "gun type" warhead would require only two shaped blocks of HEU, slammed together by a focused conventional explosive, to generate a small but real fission reaction. "

Utter rubbish. This is simply factually incorrect. Do people involved in making American policy on non proliferation take account of the views of scientifically illiterate people like this? I hope not but I'm afraid that politicians and pundits will listen to the shrillest and most hysterical voices rather than rational scientific advice.

Making nuclear weapons is not straightforward, if it was that easy the NRA would be lobbying for them to be on sale at your local 7-11. By all means work as hard as you can to stop Iran getting nuclear weapons but let's work on the basis of reality. Terrorists are not going to manufacture a working nuclear device in a shed. It is impossible. Policy should be based on evidence from sober, sensible, qualified scientists not journalists with an axe to grind.

  REPLY
 

BIG OH

12:50 AM ET

November 1, 2009

the nra, nukes, and you

hey hairstylesteve, i was intrigued by your response to this article. you may well be right about the inaccuracy of this article, but your criticisms seems more bald assertion than fair refutation. how exactly is the part about building a gun type warhead with HEU and a simple explosive 'factually incorrect?' the only thing that follows your bold contrarian declaration is a series of vague attacks on American legislators, pundits, and journalists.

please clarify this for me (and any other readers of this article), as I am not a science student.

thanks
brian

  REPLY
 

ALANGER86

8:46 AM ET

November 1, 2009

I suggest you read Lewis and

I suggest you read Lewis and Zimmerman's "The Bomb in the Backyard" in FP's Nov/Dec 2006 issue.

Making a crude nuclear device costs a lot of money, but the information is out there. If someone wants it badly enough, it is most certainly straightforward.

  REPLY
 

MAIGARI

2:21 AM ET

November 1, 2009

Iran and Nuclear Weapons

This article is really out of this world. From what is avilable to the reading public a nucvlear weapon is literally very difficult to manufacture. The talk of a terrorist organisation getting their hands on one is sheer fantasy! Moreover it is not as if a nuclear weapon is like a grenade that can be delivered even by hAnd. It requires specialised delivery system to hit a target. Even the Iranians who are suspected of making underground efforts to go nuke are way way behind on that score.
Yes as a soveriegn nation the Iranian republic is free to go for civil nuclear programme. All this hype about an arms race is simply to appease the Israeli lobby. The french started a nuclear programme with Iran and abandoned them along the way.
The US and the West should please allow the world to have some quiet, afterall, they alongside Israel have more nukes ten times over when compared to other nations that have the nuke.
Coventionally, the US and her allies control over seventy percent of the conventional waeponry, so what threast is Iran to them really?

  REPLY
 

DESI4EVA

5:15 PM ET

November 1, 2009

Black Market and Russia

The amount of unsecure weapons that get transported from Russia is crazy the country needs to take action in stopping curropt officials from selling highly advanced military equipement to rogue states though I have not heard this equipment so far being sold to terroists or the Taliban but who nows!
Ingrown Hair Removal

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HARRY DINGEY

5:32 PM ET

November 1, 2009

I CAN CREATE 15 MILLION JOBS ALMOST OVER NIGHT in America..

I CAN CREATE 15 MILLION JOBS ALMOST OVER NIGHT in America.. If America Pulls out of NAFTA and WTO..

I will bet anyone one million dollars to a donut that I can create 15 Million JOBS if I was President. America would instantly kick into overdrive and you would see more Jobs created than Americans could fill almost over night.

The American people have been screwed for the last 80 years and they do not even have a clue of what is happening.

All the Democrat or the Republican Congress/people and Presidents for the last 80 years in Washington D.C. of both parties do not care about America or the American People.

Most of the American Politicians have been either been bought off by the wealthy Council on Foreign Relations (CFR PARTY) or they just sit on their hands and go along to get along.

The CFR Party was founded by JP MORGAN (Jew), Paul Warburg (Jew), John D. Rockefeller (Jew), three super wealthy Jews back in 1921 with the specific Goal to control the American people by buying control of all means of communication to control and generate public support to advance the CFR Party agenda. With control of the people they could now buy off and elect these American Politicians of both parties to carry out their CFR PARTY agenda.

That is exactly why the American Government is shipping all the American Manufacturing Plants off shore to China as fast as they can in the last 16 years. You are watching the largest transfer of wealth is the history of the world (from America to China). The American Federal Government is serving up the USA to China on a silver Platter.

Then the America workers will all get their wish and they can start competing against the Chinese workers for that $2/day job. Since they all love that International trade so well.

At some point American workers will be required to compete with the Chinese workers for Slave Labor $2/day jobs. Every American regardless how much money you have will be affected in one way or another because a lowering tide will automatically lower all boats.

I think we are in the about the 8th inning right now.

If you think I am wrong I have only two questions for you to think about.

Why would AMERICA the most Wealthiest, the most Advanced, the most Strongest Country in the entire World, want to enter into NAFTA and the WTO and want to try to compete with third world Countries where the Workers are forced to work for Slave labor wages at $2/day?

There can only be one out come. All of the American International Manufacturers will be forced to move all of our great Factories and Technology off shore to Communist CHINA.

The American People has no choice in the matter either the USA pulls out of NAFTA and the WTO or at some point our country will just sink into the Abyss. You absolutely cannot have a complete Economic Recovery without Creating Good High Paying Jobs. Flipping Hamburgers at McDonald’s and working as a store clerk at Wal-mart will not do the trick.

I heard today on the news that the President Obama is going to share America’s top nuclear secretes with China?

A country that has no Manufacturing base is called a THIRD WORLD COUNTRY. That is exactly where America is headed.

Once all the high paying manufacturing jobs are sent off shore to China. Please tell me where the America government will collect tax revenues to support our way of Life?

The CFR PARTY Global International Trade policy will end up driving America into total Bankruptcy, that is exactly what is happening right now. When the America people finally figure this out what is really happening it will be too late to stop it.

You want me to tell you why I already know this is the long term Plan.

If I was The President I would create at least 15 million Jobs in America almost over night.

Why don’t President Obama create those 15 million JOBS right now as the USA desperately needs additional Jobs?

My answer is because President Obama is a card-carrying member of the CFR Party and they have a concerted plan to redistribute all the American People’s wealth to all of the Third World Countries.

It is called enslaving the American workers and the total destruction of America as we know it. If you beat the American Worker down far enough he will be ready to accept anything you offer to feed his family.

All of you people who have money in the Bank and well fix and you love this International Trade, just wait till you lose everything then tell me about how smart you was.

Back to my Question:

How I would create 15 million jobs almost over night?

There is one thing the America Government has total Control over and that is WHERE and WHO will produce all of the products the American people buy and use on a daily basis.

I would PULL OUT OF NAFTA and the WTO and close the doors to the American Consumer Market (the biggest consumer market in the world) and I would tell the entire world if they want sell their Products in America they must build their products in America. This is exactly what China does.

I know all of you American people have been told for 80 years that protectionist will hurt the USA even more because all other countries around the world will stop buying American made products and the USA will lose a lot more American JOBS than they will ever gain.

That my friend is just not true.

How can anyone make that statement without at least evaluating the Export and Import numbers?

Normally that answer is true. But, the American International trade deficit has grown so super huge in the last 16 years (and still growing); that if America just stops exporting anything and just produces the items we use on a daily bases that we are now importing, we can create 15 million additional new jobs almost instantly.

In fact I do not really care if the rest of the world buys even one penny of American made Products from America. If America just manufactures all of the products we use on a daily bases right here in America, we will create an additional 15 Million Jobs automatically.

Also, the USA yearly National Budget Deficit will automatically be lowered by $760 Billion because that Trade Deficit Money will not be transfer off shore to China like now. The Federal Government will get a huge boost in Tax Revenues from the 15 million American high paying Jobs.

The American Government must understand they can not continue to allow sending all the high paying American JOBS off shore to Mexico, India, China and Japan and still have enough JOBS to support the American way of life.

YOU CAN NOT GIVE SOMETHING AWAY AND STILL HAVE IT. . . .

Right now all of them 15 Million Jobs I am talking about have all been moved off shore to China, Mexico and Japan, Germany, India. They are producing all of those goods and are shipping it back to America to supple our daily needs.

Then when this very same goods is imported back into the America, the American Government who is broke, must borrow money from China and Japan to buy the very products that should have been produce right here in America in the first place.

This is Equivalent to our Stupid American Government forcing the American workers to sit on his Hands and then tell China to produce all of the goods America consumes and then when the goods is imported back into America the Federal Government is broke and are forced to borrow money from China and Japan to purchase all of this goods we are using on a daily bases.

This has got to the most stupid damn bunch in Washington or are they just conspiring to bankrupt and destroy America?

If you think I am wrong. You can goggle it and check it out for yourself. Then go to “youtube.com” and do some key word searches and listen to some of the videos and do your own research on the web.

I CAN CREATE 15 MILLION JOBS ALMOST OVER NIGHT right here in America ! ! !

Here is my Job creation Computations:

America Imported in 2006 mainly from China, Mexico, Japan and India well over $760 Billion Dollars more than we exported in 2006.

The $760 billion dollar import number that I am quoting includes Oil Imports which is something that America cannot change over night therefore must be subtracted out of total import number. The total U.S. crude oil imported during 2006 amounted to: $309.4 billion dollars of crude oil in 2006.

So, $760 billion minus $309.4 billion = $450.6 billion dollars worth of Manufactured Goods that could have and should have been produced right here in America.

Based on conventional wisdom in job creation, if you take $450.6 billion dollars worth of imported goods / $30 billion to create one million jobs = 15.02 million jobs would be automatically created almost over night.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Now because some of you people still do not get it I am going to recalculate the cost of the Trade Deficit in just Jobs.

So please do not tell me the stock CFR PARTY answer: “YEA, but look at all of the EXPORTS JOBS the USA will LOSE.”

The American people have been BRAIN WASHED by the CFR PARTY into believes in that GLOBALIZATION is in the best interest of USA. I think they are trying to destroy the USA because that will be the final outcome.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Total USA Imports in 2006:
----------------------------------
$ 2,211.7 billion ------ (This includes Crude Oil)
$ 309.4 billion less --- (Spent on Imported Crude Oil)
--------------------------------------------------
$ 1,902.3 billion / 30 billion=63.41 million jobs from Import. ==================================================

Total USA Exports in 2006:
----------------------------------
$ 1,451.7 Billion / 30 billion=48.39 million jobs from Export.

If USA Pulls out of NAFTA and WTO right now:

USA could possibly lose 48.39 million Jobs from EXPORTS.

However, I am sure many countries will still export many items from the USA because they will be forced too. That would create even more jobs gained than I have estimated.

USA would absolutely gain 63.41 million Jobs from IMPORTS.

So, 63.41 minus 48.39 = 15.02 million NET JOBS GAIN.

My calculation means an ABSOLUTE 15.02 million Jobs gained if the rest of the world did not buy one penny of USA EXPORTS.

But, instead the Washington Politicians with all their Infinite Wisdom elected to move all of that manufactured goods off shore to China. Even as America has up-ward of 16% unemployment rate and climbing.

Then to make things even worse the Federal Government must borrow money from China and Japan to purchase back these very products as they are being brought back into America.

I think we are witnessing the Federal Government in the process of transferring all the America Assets off shore to Communist China on a silver platter.

The CFR PARTY goal is to turn America into a Communistic “North America Union” state consisting of Mexico, USA and Canada. The CFR are in total control of the American Government and have been for well over 80 years.

Why would the American Government sit on their hands and watch as all the Manufacturing Base and all our high Technology are being shipped off shore to a Communistic Country like China?

Make no mistake about it China is still a Communistic Country.

We are handing all of the American Military Defenses and our entire manufacturing base over to China on a silver platter.

Please tell me; “What the HELL are we going to do if we get into a War with Russia and China”?

I guess we’ll just concede the War without firing a shot like Poland did to Hitler during World War II. It looks like we would have been better off too have lost World War II to Hitler, at least we would not be forced to work for $2/day slave labor.

They must be stopped or one day America will wakeup under total Control of China Government.

This is so sad because we had it all and our Federal Government just transfers everything we own off shore to China, Mexico and India.

Have you ever asked yourself?

Why is it “when we elect a President from a different party and he always looks and acts almost identical as the last President”?
>>>>>>>>>>

It really makes no difference who you vote for President as you will still end up getting the same party and it is called the “CFR PARTY”.

If you think I am crazy go Goggle it on “youtube.com”.

The American people have absolutely nothing to say about it.

You will never take back your country with the Ballot Box. I personally think it will require an all out Civil War. At some point the American People will say ENOUGH is ENOUGH and that is when all hell is going to break lose.

The Presidential Elections have been predetermined by the CFR PARTY since 1921.

Why is it every Presidential Candidates of both the Democrat and Republican Parties are always all members of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) which is controlled by the most wealthiest Jews in the world.

The “CFR Party” has tons of money so they figured out in 1921, if you want the President of the USA to be a card-carrying member of the “CFR Party”; they simply BUY OFF all the Presidential Candidates of both the Democrat and Republican Parties before the election even starts. The CFR Party System has worked very well for 80 years.

Where is Joseph McCarthy when you really need him?

All of these politicians should be tried for treason and every penny of their ill-gotten wealth from all of these lobbyists confiscated and returned back to the U.S. Treasury.

This has to be a Concerted Conspiracy because most of these politicians hold Major Educational Degrees from some of the best colleges in America.

I worked as Industrial Engineer working as an Expert in Industrial Relocation, Manufacturing Efficiency & Engineering, Industrial Economy Analysis, etc. for Rockwell International. Most of my adult life was spent studying the very things of which I am posting about. So, please trust me I know exactly what I am talking about because that was my job for 30 years.

Here is the Main Problem in America.

The American People keep thinking their Representatives in Washington are looking after your interest and will always solve problems and do whatever is best for America and the American People.

Wrong!!!

If you do not listen to me then you are part of the problem too. If you think I am wrong go Goggle it and check it out. Then go to youtube.com and do key word searches and listen to the videos. Start doing your own research.

This is about Presidents and congress of both Democrat and Republican Representatives in Washington who have turned the operation of running the Federal Government entirely over to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR PARTY).

This is also why Israel always gets exactly whatever they want from America. America has been helping Israel in every way possible even to the point of using borrowed money to support them.

Then the CFR Party members must lay awake at night trying to think of ways to totally destroy the American Government and the American way of life and render the American people homeless.

Add an amendment to eliminate all forms of “affirmative action” in every school, college and all other organizations in America.

Add an amendment to eliminate the American Electoral College System.

Add an amendment that Federal Elected Offices must have a majority of the total vote to win Office.

Add an amendment for Term Limits on all Federal Congressional Offices.

Add an amendment to abolish the Federal Reserve System because the America Treasury should be printing all money under the direction of the American Congress.

Add an amendment to put America back on the Gold Standard.

Repeal the State Home Land Security Act.

Build a Concrete Wall 15 feet high and 3 feet wide on our Southern Border and topped off with razor wire.

Rescind the Anchor Baby Law back to its original inception.

Any Illegal Aliens caught on American Soil would be given a mandatory 20 year prison sentence. Then watch them all run south back home.

Bring home all America Soldiers all over the world and shut down all of the Foreign Military Bases. We are not going to be the policeman to the rest of the world.

Add an amendment to make Lobbyist Illegal with a Mandatory 20-year prison sentence.

Appoint Ron Paul as Secretary of Treasury and very close adviser.

Appoint Lou Dobbs as Secretary of State.

Then have new 2008 elections all over again for every office in the Federal Government.

Is there no end to the ruthlessness of the most Super Wealthiest People in the World?

SO MOTE IT BE. . . . .

Do you truly want to help straighten out the United States Government now? Then, copy and post this article everyplace on the Internet you can post.

The American People have a right to know exactly who runs our Federal Government.

BY: Harry Dingey

Have a good day my friends.

  REPLY
 

JOHN K WHEELER

12:12 AM ET

November 2, 2009

I Agree - Nuclear Reactor Fuel is Not A Poliferation Risk

Thank you for an informative and thought-provoking article. Your detailed discussion of proliferation risks serves to reinforce the need for policy makers to recognize the nuclear reactor fuel cycle poses no risk that fissile material would be diverted and used in a nuclear weapon. Since the dawn of the atomic age, there is not a single example of any nation acquiring nuclear weapons by diverting uranium or plutonium from power reactor fuel.

The challenges before us are great: prevent man-made climate change, wean ourselves off fossil fuels, become energy independent, supply reliable and plentiful energy to impoverished regions of the world, and grow American jobs at home. The United States needs to support nuclear fuel recycling as a means to expand our energy supply and reduce the need for long term by-product storage. I recently posted an article and podcast explaining nuclear fuel recycling that your readers may find informative (here: http://thisweekinnuclear.com/?p=856 )

John Wheeler
Producer of “This Week in Nuclear” podcast
http://thisweekinnuclear.com

  REPLY
 
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