Who's Really Running Iran's Green Movement

Nearly six months after the demonstrations that followed June's disputed presidential election, Iran's pro-democracy "green movement" is as strong as ever. Rallies took place in downtown Tehran today, having been in the works for months through Twitter, blogs, and word of mouth. Iran, it seems, is on the verge of having a new, unified opposition party.

But the solidarity on the streets hides wide -- and growing -- splits within. The ostensible leaders of the movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi, are former high-ranking officials of the Islamic Republic who would likely keep much about the Islamic Revolution in place. Contrast this with the young men and women on the streets, and you see differences that go beyond the generational. The protesters are aiming to bring down the very system of which their leaders are a part.

Despite being lauded as modernizers, opposition front-runner Mousavi and his two green movement colleagues are deeply loyal to the ideals of Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, and advocate a theocratic political system. Had Mousavi come into office following the June 12 presidential election, he would not have challenged the political order. He would have tried to fix the Islamic Republic's internal and external crises through slight policy tweaks. Nor would the West have seen an "opening" of the sort that some suggest. Indeed, Mousavi's rivalry with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has little to do with the current regime's foreign policy and far more to do with internal power struggles, economic policy, and, to some extent, cultural agendas. A new leader would not have fundamentally changed Iran's position on nuclear policy or its regional role. The reason is simple: Everyone who ran for president concedes that foreign-policy decisions should fall to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

So how did such moderates end up at the helm of a revolution? By accident. None of the reform candidates could have predicted that, following the mass vote-rigging during the presidential election, a popular movement would arise. These "leaders" had only a small role both in organizing and creating the movement, but they were swept into power by a spontaneous and improvised groundswell. The government had carefully vetted candidates, keeping anyone too reformist from running. So the grass-roots movement was left with a choice between two evils: Mousavi, the lesser one, and Ahmadinejad.

Mousavi reluctantly became the symbolic leader of the green movement, but he, Karroubi, and Khatami remain aloof. Today's demonstrations, for example, were imagined and promoted by bloggers and leaders of human rights and women's movements for at least two months. It was only last week, after these plans were well circulated (and the Grand Ayatollah had warned against them), that Mousavi issued a statement calling for demonstrations on Nov. 4.

So today, these three former officials find themselves at the helm of a movement whose views they do not necessarily represent. That gap -- between the green movement's leaders and the people in the streets -- is widening. Even in the midst of protests, there is growing discord. For instance, Mousavi and Karroubi have both criticized slogans like "No Gaza, no Lebanon -- I sacrifice my life for Iran" as "extremist," despite their being a widespread feature of current popular action in Iran.

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GRANT

8:05 PM ET

November 4, 2009

It isn't that surprising, but

It isn't that surprising, but I wouldn't say that these men can't work well in a post-theocratic system. Indeed it is often pragmatic to use the least unappetizing members of the old guard to make sure that things run well.

REPLY

JIMA

11:27 AM ET

November 5, 2009

This is a shallow analysis

First, the fact is that Mousavi has stressed that "deep change" is necessary in Iran. He has said that the path through change is the current constitution, but only because the constitution (if fully implemented) can serve as a legal and orderly mechanism to carry out the change the people want -- including freedom of press, assembly, and the referral to popular referendums to settle major issues. Otherwise, the transition would be lawless, and the same errors that occurred in '79 might be repeated.

Second, of course, Mousavi and Karroubi cannot say many things -- otherwise, they would be tied up in Evin Prison and getting tortured right now, as many of their campaign workers can personally attest to. You can't just ignore that. Moreover, the message must be calibrated in way that will ultimately resonate not only with Greens, but with the more conservative/religious segments of Iranian society.

Third, and by far most importantly, the protestors can disagree with each other and their leaders as much as they want. They can be on totally different pages. But what everyone agrees in is that the people and the ballot box must choose between the competing visions. That is the only principle that needs consensus. And both Mousavi and Karroubi have made it clear that the people should be the final voice. That is why they are leaders of the Green Movement, and that is why they are the Islamic Republic's public enemy No. 1 and No. 2. If Mousavi just represented the potential for "slight policy tweaks", they would have counted his votes.

HASS

4:16 PM ET

What does WINEP know?

Funny when has-beens and exiles sit in Israeli-funded think-tanks like WINEP in Washington and declare what the people of Iran really do or don't want, or who represents them or doesn't.

And, if Mousavi "would not have challenged the political order" then why was he supposedly cheated of an election victory through massive fraud? In fact he was specifically vetted and cleared to run for office in the first place.

THe answer: because there was no election fraud, and the the demostrators don't represent the vast majority of Iranians, who did in fact vote for Ahmadinejad and don't sympathize with the riotors.

This is proven several public opinion polls too including by the World Public Opinion polling agency in the United States.
http://tinyurl.com/yhxzjp4

DAVE1995

10:37 AM ET

November 6, 2009

Demonizing WINEP and Khaladji is NOT helpful.

Comments on the message is helpful. Dismissing the message because of the messenger's background and institutional affiliations is NOT helpful.

Khaladji's main point is that the Green Movement is not a "unified opposition party" and that Mossavi et.al. are transitory leaders of an ongoing and durable opposition to the political order in Iran. There are a lot of merits in his message.

You dismiss Khaladji's message partly because of his background and affiliation with WINEP, and partly because you, unlike Khaladji, believe that the June election was not fraudulent. Whether the June election was fraudulent or not, however, is inessential for Khaladji's argument and immaterial for the political dynamics in Iran.

10:44 AM ET

WINEP has an agenda which is not pro-democracy

WINEP and the rest of the pro-Israeli crowd are simply trying to ride the backs of demonstrators in Iran and exploit them for their own uses. That's plain obvious. To disregard WINEP's agenda is to close your eyes to the facts.

And its not a question of my "opinion" on whether there was fraud in the elections in Iran. There has never been any actual evidence presented, and several polls clearly show that the vast majority of Iranians support Iran's nuclear program as well as the elections. See for example the polls by World Public Opinion: http://tinyurl.com/yhxzjp4

6:29 PM ET

WINEP agenda is irrelevant.

WINEP's agenda is not relevant to Khaladji's analysis. I may agree with you about WINEP's as well as other "think tanks" in Washington. Such "think tanks" at best have influence on Washington's policy towards Iran. But Iranians are not naive to believe that Washington and/or its "think tanks" want to promote democracy in Iran. In any case, the fact that Khaladji is affiliated with WINEP does not render his analysis invalid.

And, whether the election was fraudulent or not is immaterial to what is going on Iran. The fact is that a sizable share of the electorate believe, or pretend to believe, that the election was fraudulent. And, they are willing to act on such beliefs. And, going forward, the political dynamics in Iran is shaped with how the question of regime's legitmacy is resolved.

9:55 AM ET

November 9, 2009

Israel seeking to ride the Green Movement.

Sorry but WINEP's agenda is not irrelevant to Khalaji's analysis, which is an attempt to put a spin on the so-called Green Movement that suits the interests of Israel.

TOM G

9:22 AM ET

This Emerging Democracy Must be supported

I believe that we are seeing a modern version of Poland's solidarity movement in Iran.In which young well educated and moderate people are attempting to do what the polish did 20 years ago, trying to decide their own future by removing the old guard of which they feel they do not represent the majority anymore and are no more or less clinging to power.They are trying to change the system using peaceful means which if we can be honest is rare in that part of the world and I believe that they should be supported in anyway possible because if you could imagine an Iran as a moderate peaceful democracy would do for regional stability.Just imagine the region without groups currently sponsored by Iran suddenly without their backer or with a much more peaceful one they would be around the negotiating table so quick that it would make your head spin.The balance of power would also shift to more democratic societies as Iran would no longer the bogey man in the closet but an ally of democratic values, as Thomas Jefferson once said ''The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants'' so Iranians must be supported now as they try to change there system as it would befit the world in the long run.

WILDTHING

1:38 PM ET

The CIA most likely

Wouldn't the operatives Seymour Hersh reported about years ago have been preparing for something like this plus who does the color coding on all these democratic uprisings anyway?

Who's Really Running Iran's Green Movement

Here’s a hint: It's not Mousavi, Khatami, or Karroubi.

BY MEHDI KHALAJI | NOVEMBER 4, 2009

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