Who's Really Running Iran's Green Movement

Here’s a hint: It's not Mousavi, Khatami, or Karroubi.

BY MEHDI KHALAJI | NOVEMBER 4, 2009

Nearly six months after the demonstrations that followed June's disputed presidential election, Iran's pro-democracy "green movement" is as strong as ever. Rallies took place in downtown Tehran today, having been in the works for months through Twitter, blogs, and word of mouth. Iran, it seems, is on the verge of having a new, unified opposition party.

But the solidarity on the streets hides wide -- and growing -- splits within. The ostensible leaders of the movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi, are former high-ranking officials of the Islamic Republic who would likely keep much about the Islamic Revolution in place. Contrast this with the young men and women on the streets, and you see differences that go beyond the generational. The protesters are aiming to bring down the very system of which their leaders are a part.

Despite being lauded as modernizers, opposition front-runner Mousavi and his two green movement colleagues are deeply loyal to the ideals of Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, and advocate a theocratic political system. Had Mousavi come into office following the June 12 presidential election, he would not have challenged the political order. He would have tried to fix the Islamic Republic's internal and external crises through slight policy tweaks. Nor would the West have seen an "opening" of the sort that some suggest. Indeed, Mousavi's rivalry with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has little to do with the current regime's foreign policy and far more to do with internal power struggles, economic policy, and, to some extent, cultural agendas. A new leader would not have fundamentally changed Iran's position on nuclear policy or its regional role. The reason is simple: Everyone who ran for president concedes that foreign-policy decisions should fall to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

So how did such moderates end up at the helm of a revolution? By accident. None of the reform candidates could have predicted that, following the mass vote-rigging during the presidential election, a popular movement would arise. These "leaders" had only a small role both in organizing and creating the movement, but they were swept into power by a spontaneous and improvised groundswell. The government had carefully vetted candidates, keeping anyone too reformist from running. So the grass-roots movement was left with a choice between two evils: Mousavi, the lesser one, and Ahmadinejad.

Mousavi reluctantly became the symbolic leader of the green movement, but he, Karroubi, and Khatami remain aloof. Today's demonstrations, for example, were imagined and promoted by bloggers and leaders of human rights and women's movements for at least two months. It was only last week, after these plans were well circulated (and the Grand Ayatollah had warned against them), that Mousavi issued a statement calling for demonstrations on Nov. 4.

So today, these three former officials find themselves at the helm of a movement whose views they do not necessarily represent. That gap -- between the green movement's leaders and the people in the streets -- is widening. Even in the midst of protests, there is growing discord. For instance, Mousavi and Karroubi have both criticized slogans like "No Gaza, no Lebanon -- I sacrifice my life for Iran" as "extremist," despite their being a widespread feature of current popular action in Iran.

But the most fundamental split comes over what the movement makes of the Iranian Revolution. Mousavi and Khatami have reiterated their desired goal of returning to the ideals of late Ayatollah Khomenei and the original principles of the Islamic Republic. But those in the streets are conscious of the failure of past reforms and have little hope that the Islamic Republic -- a system in which the supreme leader has the authority to veto both Islamic and national law -- can be saved. And the green movement remains motivated by the notion of human rights and citizenship, both absent in Iran's Constitution. Hence, the part of the movement that first began to peacefully protest against the vote manipulation in this summer's election finds itself diametrically opposed to Ayatollah Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard under him.

Khatami, a former president himself, is certainly cognizant of the split; in a recent speech, he tried to distinguish between those participating in current protests, who reject the entire existing system, and his own followers, who prefer to work within the political structure of the Islamic Republic with a ruling jurist above all.

But the bulk of the movement agrees less with the so-called leaders and more with the Islamic Republic's young third generation, who form 70 percent of the Iranian population and make up most of the demonstrators. The true leaders of this movement are students, women, human rights activists, and political activists who have little desire to work in a theocratic regime or in a government within the framework of the existing Constitution. This movement is much broader than the reform movement of the 1990s, when Khatami was president. Then, the number of people demanding reform on the streets never exceeded 50,000. According to Tehran's conservative mayor, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, more than 3 million people protested in the wake of this year's June 12 election.

If you want to know the unconventional nature of this movement -- and what the people who have bravely taken to the streets really want - don't listen to Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami.

Since the true representatives of reform owe little to them, a successful green movement would likely push them aside anyway.

This is why it is not only the regime in Tehran -- but also the reformist "leaders" who pretend to lead this movement -- that fear the success of the green movement. Democracy in Iran will emerge only through a rupture with the late Ayatollah Khomeini's ideals and Islamic ideology -- concepts to which the accidental leaders of the green movement are still loyal.

AFP/Getty Images

 

Mehdi Khalaji is senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

GRANT

9:05 PM ET

November 4, 2009

It isn't that surprising, but

It isn't that surprising, but I wouldn't say that these men can't work well in a post-theocratic system. Indeed it is often pragmatic to use the least unappetizing members of the old guard to make sure that things run well.

 

JIMA

12:27 PM ET

November 5, 2009

This is a shallow analysis

First, the fact is that Mousavi has stressed that "deep change" is necessary in Iran. He has said that the path through change is the current constitution, but only because the constitution (if fully implemented) can serve as a legal and orderly mechanism to carry out the change the people want -- including freedom of press, assembly, and the referral to popular referendums to settle major issues. Otherwise, the transition would be lawless, and the same errors that occurred in '79 might be repeated.

Second, of course, Mousavi and Karroubi cannot say many things -- otherwise, they would be tied up in Evin Prison and getting tortured right now, as many of their campaign workers can personally attest to. You can't just ignore that. Moreover, the message must be calibrated in way that will ultimately resonate not only with Greens, but with the more conservative/religious segments of Iranian society.

Third, and by far most importantly, the protestors can disagree with each other and their leaders as much as they want. They can be on totally different pages. But what everyone agrees in is that the people and the ballot box must choose between the competing visions. That is the only principle that needs consensus. And both Mousavi and Karroubi have made it clear that the people should be the final voice. That is why they are leaders of the Green Movement, and that is why they are the Islamic Republic's public enemy No. 1 and No. 2. If Mousavi just represented the potential for "slight policy tweaks", they would have counted his votes.

 

HASS

5:16 PM ET

November 5, 2009

What does WINEP know?

Funny when has-beens and exiles sit in Israeli-funded think-tanks like WINEP in Washington and declare what the people of Iran really do or don't want, or who represents them or doesn't.

And, if Mousavi "would not have challenged the political order" then why was he supposedly cheated of an election victory through massive fraud? In fact he was specifically vetted and cleared to run for office in the first place.

THe answer: because there was no election fraud, and the the demostrators don't represent the vast majority of Iranians, who did in fact vote for Ahmadinejad and don't sympathize with the riotors.

This is proven several public opinion polls too including by the World Public Opinion polling agency in the United States.
http://tinyurl.com/yhxzjp4

 

DAVE1995

11:37 AM ET

November 6, 2009

Demonizing WINEP and Khaladji is NOT helpful.

Comments on the message is helpful. Dismissing the message because of the messenger's background and institutional affiliations is NOT helpful.

Khaladji's main point is that the Green Movement is not a "unified opposition party" and that Mossavi et.al. are transitory leaders of an ongoing and durable opposition to the political order in Iran. There are a lot of merits in his message.

You dismiss Khaladji's message partly because of his background and affiliation with WINEP, and partly because you, unlike Khaladji, believe that the June election was not fraudulent. Whether the June election was fraudulent or not, however, is inessential for Khaladji's argument and immaterial for the political dynamics in Iran.

 

HASS

11:44 AM ET

November 6, 2009

WINEP has an agenda which is not pro-democracy

WINEP and the rest of the pro-Israeli crowd are simply trying to ride the backs of demonstrators in Iran and exploit them for their own uses. That's plain obvious. To disregard WINEP's agenda is to close your eyes to the facts.

And its not a question of my "opinion" on whether there was fraud in the elections in Iran. There has never been any actual evidence presented, and several polls clearly show that the vast majority of Iranians support Iran's nuclear program as well as the elections. See for example the polls by World Public Opinion: http://tinyurl.com/yhxzjp4

 

DAVE1995

7:29 PM ET

November 6, 2009

WINEP agenda is irrelevant.

WINEP's agenda is not relevant to Khaladji's analysis. I may agree with you about WINEP's as well as other "think tanks" in Washington. Such "think tanks" at best have influence on Washington's policy towards Iran. But Iranians are not naive to believe that Washington and/or its "think tanks" want to promote democracy in Iran. In any case, the fact that Khaladji is affiliated with WINEP does not render his analysis invalid.

And, whether the election was fraudulent or not is immaterial to what is going on Iran. The fact is that a sizable share of the electorate believe, or pretend to believe, that the election was fraudulent. And, they are willing to act on such beliefs. And, going forward, the political dynamics in Iran is shaped with how the question of regime's legitmacy is resolved.

 

HASS

10:55 AM ET

November 9, 2009

Israel seeking to ride the Green Movement.

Sorry but WINEP's agenda is not irrelevant to Khalaji's analysis, which is an attempt to put a spin on the so-called Green Movement that suits the interests of Israel.

 

SCOTTGOOSE

1:48 AM ET

November 27, 2009

Wheres the Israel connection, besides your mind?

Wow, ive heard about you Hass. What do scholarly think tanks with pro-Israeli inclinations have to gain by the green movement effectively overthrowing the mullahs? Because your blinding by you anti-Israeli nature, you missed the fact that WINEP would support this Green revolution most importantly because it would mitigate the necessity of an Israeli/other military op. They also support democracy worldwide, hence the support for a democratic solidarity movement in an autocratic regime. But clearly, besides your twisted logic, you lose all credibility when you claim that the objectively rigged election was anything but. I cannot believe I wasted the time responding to a loony toon.

 

TOM G

10:22 AM ET

November 6, 2009

This Emerging Democracy Must be supported

I believe that we are seeing a modern version of Poland's solidarity movement in Iran.In which young well educated and moderate people are attempting to do what the polish did 20 years ago, trying to decide their own future by removing the old guard of which they feel they do not represent the majority anymore and are no more or less clinging to power.They are trying to change the system using peaceful means which if we can be honest is rare in that part of the world and I believe that they should be supported in anyway possible because if you could imagine an Iran as a moderate peaceful democracy would do for regional stability.Just imagine the region without groups currently sponsored by Iran suddenly without their backer or with a much more peaceful one they would be around the negotiating table so quick that it would make your head spin.The balance of power would also shift to more democratic societies as Iran would no longer the bogey man in the closet but an ally of democratic values, as Thomas Jefferson once said ''The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants'' so Iranians must be supported now as they try to change there system as it would befit the world in the long run.

 

SCOTTGOOSE

1:39 AM ET

November 27, 2009

If only it were so easy

I wish the Green Movement the best of luck. The optimal scenario would naturally be a blood-less coup, and render the seemingly inevitable military offensive unnecessary. It would be optimistic to think they they were close to a monolithic movement destined to overthrow the mullahs. Lets hope they have some efficient and charismatic leaders that can galvanize the masses and the resources to maintain sustainability. I have my doubts about both of what I feel are pre-requisite qualities of any productive opposition. Fact is, things are getting bad, and Israel is not going to sit on their thumbs as this all just unfolds before them. I'd love to ask an expert this question bluntly: Based on Israeli statements regarding the impossibility of a nuclear Iran, where is the red line that Iran would have to cross to legitimize a preemptive strike? If the criteria is when Iran weaponizes a shahab-3 and has it aimed at Israel, the intelligence communities better be top notch. I wonder how current the dare i say "international communities" intelligence is to deduce in a timely fashion the precise time that Iran reaches weaponization? Seems pretty optimistic at best

 

WILDTHING

2:38 PM ET

November 6, 2009

The CIA most likely

Wouldn't the operatives Seymour Hersh reported about years ago have been preparing for something like this plus who does the color coding on all these democratic uprisings anyway?