Next in Line

On Thursday night, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced his intention not to seek another term in the presidential election scheduled for January. The move was widely seen as a reflection of Abbas's frustration with the lack of progress on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and the Obama administration's retreat from its previous demand of a complete halt to Israeli settlement construction before beginning negotiations. FOREIGN POLICY decided to take a look at the various candidates who are next in line whenever Abbas leaves the political scene.

MARWAN BARGHOUTI

Pros: Of all the possible candidates, Barghouti is perhaps the most popular on the Palestinian street. Born in a village outside the West Bank city of Ramallah, he joined Fatah at 15 and has played an active role in Palestinian politics ever since. He helped organize Palestinian protests during the first intifada, in 1987, and then directed Palestinian military action during the second intifada in 2000.

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Despite this fact, some Israelis would also not be upset to see Barghouti rise to the top. Although Barghouti unapologetically admits that he is no pacifist, he also maintains that violence is only a means to establish a Palestinian state within the pre-1967 borders. For many Israelis working to make the two-state solution a reality, Barghouti is a strong, credible leader who has the potential to unite Palestine's divided factions behind a negotiated settlement. Recently, he has committed himself to bridging the Fatah-Hamas rivalry and is seen as a figure who could drag Hamas, kicking and screaming, away from armed resistance and back to the negotiating table.

Cons : The most obvious objection to Barghouti has less to do with his politics than his location. He languishes in an Israeli prison in the Negev, serving out a sentence of five consecutive life terms for the murder of four Israelis and a Greek monk during the second intifada. Although this imprisonment has only increased his popularity among Palestinians, it would be difficult for Barghouti to guide the Palestinian Authority from behind bars. While he could act as a sort of figurehead, offering broad proclamations on the course of Palestinian politics, any concrete policy decisions would be known immediately by the Israelis. A number of dovish Israeli Knesset deputies have called for Israel to commute his sentence, but the Likud government is unlikely to do so in the short term. Today, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon stated that Barghouti would not be pardoned even if he were elected president.

Path to victory: Barghouti would need to unite the younger generation of Palestinian leaders -- those in their 40s and 50s who made their reputation during the first and second Intifada -- behind his candidacy. If he runs, he will no doubt exploit his reputation as a "clean" politician who has sacrificed for the Palestinian movement, in contrast with the corruption of Fatah's current leadership. He will also need to gain his freedom or, failing that, prove that he can be an effective leader from behind bars. Paradoxically, some analysts think that Barghouti's imprisonment will actually influence some Palestinian leaders to support his candidacy. Because he will be unable to handle the details of governance, it will allow them to maintain their fiefdoms and patronage networks within the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

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