• NOVEMBER 21, 2009
BRIEFING BOOK PRINT  |   TEXT SIZE        |  EMAIL  |  SINGLE PAGE

Briefing Book: Iran's Sanctions

What could sanctions against Iran really do?

BY BRIANNA ROSEN, CHARLIE SZROM, MASEH ZARIF | NOVEMBER 10, 2009

With negotiations over Iranian uranium enrichment floundering, both sides are looking at plan B. Despite Barack Obama’s stated goal of engagement, harsh new sanctions are seeming likelier by the day, with the U.S. Congress already approving legislation that would prohibit petroleum companies that work with Iran from doing business in the United States, and intensive negotiations already underway over what U.N. sanctions would look like.

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Historically, Tehran has always responded to sanctions not by stopping the behavior engendering them, but by preparing for them -- developing an autonomous Internet and producing military equipment domestically, for instance. It has spent the past two years developing a comprehensive plan to mitigate the effects of strengthened sanctions. It seeks to reduce domestic gasoline consumption, secure alternative gasoline import sources, and increase domestic production -- eventually, boosting  indigenous capacity until Iran is self-sufficient.

Here, a briefing on what to look for if sanctions become reality.

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The authors are members of the Critical Threats Project research team at the American Enterprise Institute. Charlie Szrom is the program manager; Maseh Zarif and Brianna Rosen are researchers. Their work on this subject and related topics is available at www.irantracker.org.

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