How the end of the Soviet Union took Europe by Surprise - By Moisés Naím

The fall of the Berlin Wall was bad news for sovietologists. Thousands of spies, military officers, diplomats, professors, journalists and assorted experts made a living studying the Soviet Union. None predicted its collapse.

But if the sudden and peaceful end of the Soviet empire was a surprise, the effects of the collapse for Europe have been almost as surprising. Here are 4 of the unexpected consequences that the end of the Soviet Union had for Europe -- and that the experts also failed to anticipate.

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1. China displaced the Soviet Union (USSR) as the main threat for Europeans.

When the Berlin Wall fell no one imagined that China would more directly affect the lives of Western Europeans than was ever the case for the USSR. Not because of China's military might but as a result of its economic prowess. After World War II, Western Europe had lived under the threat of a deadly confrontation with the Soviets. Fortunately, that threat never materialized and, in practice, the daily lives of Europeans were not that affected. In contrast, the economic rise of China touches the daily lives of all Europeans: from what they pay for a TV set to medicines, and from gasoline to their home mortgages or the possibility of finding a job. Chinese capitalism is transforming Europe far more than Soviet communism ever did.

2. The Euro.

No one predicted that the fall of the Berlin Wall would stimulate the creation of a single European currency. That the Germans would be willing to leave the deutschemark or that the French would accept having a currency controlled from Frankfurt -- the headquarters of the European Central Bank were unimaginable possibilities. Or that 14 other countries would also shed their old currencies to adopt the Euro. Equally impossible to imagine was a scenario where after a massive global financial crisis with devastating effects on European economies, the reserve currency for those who feared that the U.S. dollar will plummet would be the Euro. The Euro was a utopia and today is a reality that does not surprise anyone. And that's a surprise.

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MLROCAP

10:23 PM ET

November 10, 2009

Europe's weakness

Don't read and write too fast. That's always a good precept to follow.
- You may probably make a good case for European nations decline for the last 20 years. But for the EU that was created 20 years ago? That registered clear successes on as many diverse issues as international criminal justice, climate change policy, cultural diversity, peacekeeping in Africa, promotion of stability in Europe through enlargement, taking over NATO missions in several instances in the Balkans, etc. It really looks more prejudiced than informed.
- The (excellent) ECFR report about HR clearly mentions that the influence of the US also plummeted in UN bodies about Human Rights. So the result has little to do with the EU supposed weaknesses, and could actually prove that the EU does better than others.
- The other ECFR reports talks about more European troops in Afghanistan... within IFAS, that is the NATO mission, at a time when the US had almost all its own troops under strictly national commande.
- I'm still waiting for a compelling demonstration that European countries would get better results in world politics without the EU (which is what so many people actually say when they mention the fact that the EU makes less than the sum of its parts on the global stage).

10:32 PM ET

Not to say anything about the Eurabia crap...

In 2025, the high end of previsions show an estimate of 30 millions inhabitants in Europe who will be Muslim or of Muslim origins (which is not exactly the same, and does not necessarily mean Arabic, by the way).

That would account for just a little bit more than 5% of the population. Not 50%. 5%!

How can anyone serious talk about Eurabia in such circumstances. Anxiety about foreigners and immigration does exist. But it makes for poor journalism (and poor economics, and poor politics, etc). You can read Caldwell if you want to, but please, don't relay his mistakes and prejudices on this otherwise excellent website.

Europe After the Berlin Wall: 4 Surprises

For Europe the effects of the Berlin Wall's collapse were almost as surprising as the fall itself. Here are 4 of the unexpected consequences that the end of the Soviet Union had for Europe -- ones even the experts didn't see coming.

BY MOISÉS NAÍM | NOVEMBER 10, 2009

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