• NOVEMBER 21, 2009
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The Big Freak Out

The downfall of the brains behind the Freakonomics phenomenon.

BY CLAY RISEN | NOVEMBER 11, 2009

Four years ago, economist Steven Levitt and journalist Stephen Dubner achieved the rarest of literary feats: Their counterintuitive book Freakonomics became a genuine nonfiction crossover hit, a best-seller beloved in academic departments and hair salons alike, praised by everyone from the Economist to O, The Oprah Magazine. Even academic economists loved the way they recast the dismal science as edgy, subversive -- cool.

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With their new book, SuperFreakonomics, however, Levitt and Dubner have managed to become almost as hated by the economic establishment as they were adored for Freakonomics. This time, instead of praise, they're being tongue-lashed in congressional hearings and scourged across the academic and liberal communities, groups that once sang their praises. Representative Jay Inslee (D-Wash) called parts of it "an absolute deception" and said "we ought to blow the whistle on them." Paul Krugman, perhaps the only economist more widely known than Levitt right now, called the book "a counterintuitive train wreck."

Levitt and Dubner aren't about to go broke -- their first book sold 4 million copies, and SuperFreakonomics is already near the top of the bestseller lists. But the pair's trademark recipe of counterintuitive snark and lightweight econo-speak no longer dazzles the establishment. Instead, by pushing the envelope of contrarianism as entertainment, the pair may have forever traded stratospheric sales for the once-glowing approval of their intellectual-elite peers. What happened?

The fury centers on a chapter -- so infamous it's recognized in the blogosphere as simply "Chapter Five" -- which argues that global warming could be reversed by pumping tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, creating a sort of gassy heat shield. That in itself is a controversial proposition, since it basically advocates for more pollution in exchange for lower temperatures. But it's something climate scientists are at least willing to consider.

What really addles their newfound detractors, though, is the way Levitt and Dubner needlessly rely on the rhetorical tropes of the climate-denial community. They begin with a classic rope-a-dope anecdote relating scary climate change headlines -- only to reveal that said headlines refer to the unfounded and overhyped global-cooling scare of the 1970s. "These days," they go on, "the threat is the opposite" -- inviting readers to adopt the same sort of skepticism toward global warming (even though, unlike global cooling, it is supported by an overwhelming scientific consensus).

Other tricks abound: They take the low risk of a worst-case scenario -- a 5 percent chance that worldwide temperatures will rise 10 degrees Celsius -- and use it to cast doubt on the prospects of the planet warming at all. They even argue that carbon may not be the main cause of warming. The only reason this "complex" reality isn't better publicized, they say, is because for many, "global warming has taken on the feel of a religion." Finally, having debunked the global-warming faith, the pair admits that, yes, something should probably be done -- which leads them to propose the sulfur dioxide shield.

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Clay Risen is the managing editor of Democracy: A Journal of Ideas.

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FUNKRIGHT

9:29 PM ET

November 11, 2009

They're just doing the Lord's work...

I thought it was only Goldman Sachs that was doing the Lord's work..

  REPLY
 

SCHMEDLAP

12:57 AM ET

November 12, 2009

Pot, meet Kettle

I find it hilarious that there is so much outrage over this. Even if one accepts all of the assertions in this article as true, the "Steves" appear to be guilty of little more than engaging in the same foolishness that all of the cable news channels engage in on a daily basis. They appear to be guilty of engaging in behavior less disgraceful than politicians, who parade similar tripe, but boil it down into soundbites. They appear to be guilty of toned-down versions of the crap that we see on the bookshelves of B&N and Borders in the current affairs section. So what? Why all of the indignation? Most other authors, "journalists," and individuals with voices are equally, if not more, full of crap than the "Steves."

  REPLY
 

OLDPILOT

10:52 AM ET

November 12, 2009

Through my fault, through my most grievous fault ...

'Why call global warming a "religion"?'

Um ... because it is? Blue skies! -- Dan Ford

  REPLY
 

EXOTTOYUHR

4:20 PM ET

November 12, 2009

Scientific orthodoxy...

I thought science was supposed to be about testing hypotheses, not affirming a certain set of beliefs? But I don't see anyone discussing how the Freakonomists got their math wrong. I also don't see any discussion, here or anywhere, about the possibility that sunspots are to blame -- the theory of solar-induced, rather than man-made, climate change...

For the same mentality in another field, read Gary Taubes' _Good Calories, Bad Calories_. Or look up plasma cosmology. Or Sun Streak. Or, so help me Mikey, even the study of post-traumatic stress disorder...

  REPLY
 

ASMALLVOICE

5:14 PM ET

November 12, 2009

Here you go

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/10/an-open-letter-to-steve-levitt/

  REPLY
 

EXOTTOYUHR

11:00 AM ET

November 13, 2009

RealClimate?

I've already been given one reference to ScientificOrthodoxy.Com, and I'm thoroughly unimpressed. Check out the first link on http://www.realclimate.org/wiki/index.php?title=RC_Wiki , their wiki: "How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic." A page dedicated to scientific inquiry does not include apologetics.

  REPLY
 

KMOODY

9:53 PM ET

November 12, 2009

Not surprised at all...

I am confused about how these two guys are less of an authority on climate science than the editors at Foreign Policy or, of all people, Paul Krugman, whose book on the subject is a POS, by the way--if the style of Chapter Five is simply a regurgitation of old ideas on climate change deniers then Krugman's book is the manure that comes out after that. Seriously, even hard core hippies thought the book was a rip off waste of time (and trees so hep me God). Whether FP, or any other piece of media besides The Washington Times, wants to admit it or not, there are many economists that have weighed the risk and projected costs of climate change and came out with a similar conclusion: the science is really still out on whether climate change is worth addressing in a dramatic, public policy arena. Maybe the people who plug Climate change are just ticked that they continue to loose the public debate on the issue. Or that the whole Global Cooling thing didn't pan out. Or that Global Warming had to be changed from the much more dubious Climate Change. Or that temperatures have been falling since Al Gore's movie came out--with pretty terrible science of its own. As far as talk about the whole thing where it is labeled as religion or whatever, consider this. Climate change cannot be dis proven to anyone who does believe in it. You can try, but it just doesn't pan out. Why? Because if temps rise, then it is climate change. If they fall globally, then it is climate change. If CO2 is a global warming gas, then how in the name of Science can temps somehow fall? People were putting Katrina as the face of what could happen every year to the Atlantic seaboard. That was five years ago, and we haven't seen a storm like that since. With the veracity that these guys get attacked is typical. Malthus thought we were doomed a couple billion people ago, and here we are, and I think in 2055, instead of being labeled as the generation that turned its back on Mother Nature, we will look curiously back and think how naive we were to think that we could really change the environment, excuse me, the GLOBAL environment, in such a fashion. But I am no climate science expert. I am willing to admit that. But at least I have the balls to say that, while I do not think that this so called climate change is something that deserves to be addressed full throttle, it should be considered. (I, ahem, wish Congress would focus on the economy, passing health care, those two wars we are in (I think, right?), bicycle safety, and then climate change. No wait, Darfur then climate change.) Either way, alternative energies can be awesome, but the reality is that the science is just not there. I rant, I know--but I happen to agree with the sunspots theory. Weird that humans aren't responsible for every environmental problem, I know. Among the non-experts include the founder of the Weather Channel and the Farmers Almanac (who have been studying weather patterns for over a century). Either way, I don't see why this is posted in FP Mag. And finally, we Americans are not the only ones starting to doubt this. The British and Australians don't buy it either.

  REPLY
 

OCHIENG100

4:51 AM ET

November 13, 2009

freakonomic...

Really Interesting, informative argument,
Just thinking of opportunity cost for this guys...

  REPLY
 
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