PATRICK KOVARIK/AFP/Getty Images
41. Esther Duflo
for adding quantitative rigor to assessments of foreign aid.
economist | MIT | Cambridge, Mass.
If there's any hope of adjudicating the Sachs-Easterly contretemps, the 36-year-old Duflo -- who has stayed neutral -- might be able to provide it. Unlike traditional economists who test new aid products under laboratory conditions, Duflo, who just won a MacArthur "genius" grant and has been hailed as "the new face of French intellectualism," tests products in the field, with all the interference and compounding data points that go with it. She has turned her methods on the questions of whether it's best to give away or sell mosquito nets, whether grandfathers or grandmothers are more likely to spend on the health of their families, and what incentives work for vaccination. As co-founder of MIT's Poverty Action Lab, Duflo is imposing new rigor on everything from women's empowerment to computer-assisted learning: "[W]e are trying to raise expectations but make them real."
Reading list: The Emperor, by Ryszard Kapuscinski; The Biographer's Tale, by A.S. Byatt; In Xanadu, by William Dalrymple.
Wants to visit: Brazil
Gadget: Neither Facebook nor Twitter. BlackBerry.
42. Jared Diamond
for helping us understand how societies not only grow, but die.
Geographer | UCLA | Los Angeles
Diamond writes about destruction. But if his most famous book, Guns, Germs, and Steel, was about how Western civilizations destroyed their competition, his most recent book, Collapse, traces how societies, such as Greenland's Vikings, destroy themselves by squandering their natural resources. Climate change may be a new concern, but the need to live sustainably is an old one, Collapse shows. More recently, Diamond has turned his attention to modern predicaments, urging less consumption and population restraint. The Earth today has more than enough resources to sustain its current population, Diamond thinks, but we must use them more intelligently than our ancestors did, lest we go the way of the Vikings.
Reading list: Colomba, by Dacia Maraini; The Divine Comedy, Dante; New Guinea: What I Did and What I Saw, Luigi D'Albertis.
Wants to visit: Uzbekistan
Best idea: Triple the price of gasoline in the United States.
Worst idea: Fertilizing the ocean, or injecting gases or particles into the atmosphere to combat climate change.
43. Richard Posner
for his wide-ranging intellectual contributions.
Judge | University of Chicago | Chicago
Posner is considered one of the United States' best legal minds, using free market economics to guide his judicial decisions and academic papers, sometimes in unorthodox directions: The contrarian jurist, who turned 70 in 2009, wants to legalize marijuana and has agreed with the idea that infants should be bought and sold rather than adopted. Still, Posner's intellectual daring and range make him a rare and essential public figure. He co-authors a popular blog with Nobel laureate Gary Becker and churns out nearly a book per year. In 2009 he produced A Failure of Capitalism, a bracing examination of the economic crisis that assigns blame to former President George W. Bush and ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and argues that regulatory failure allowed the crisis to happen.
44. David Kilcullen
for writing the book on how America fights small wars.
Counterinsurgency expert | Washington
A gregarious former lieutenant colonel in the Australian Army, Kilcullen had an epiphany as a Ph.D. student in political anthropology. At root, guerrilla movements were motivated not by radical ideals, but by mundane, everyday drives; defeating them requires protecting the population and developing an in-depth knowledge of local social networks. In 2007, as the Iraqi insurgency was reaching its height, Gen. David Petraeus (No. 8) brought him on as a senior advisor, and many credit Kilcullen's ideas with saving countless lives. Now, the Aussie has begun applying his out-of-the-box thinking to Afghanistan, starting with his book The Accidental Guerrilla. "If I were a Muslim," Kilcullen told the New Yorker, "I'd probably be a jihadist.… The thing that drives these guys -- a sense of adventure, wanting to be part of the moment, wanting to be in the big movement of history that's happening now -- that's the same thing that drives me, you know?"
Reading list: Dead Aid, by Dambisa Moyo; Talking to Terrorists, by John Bew, et al.; The Bottom Billion, by Paul Collier.
Wants to visit: Russia
Best idea: "O3b," Greg Wyler's groundbreaking enterprise to create a space-based Internet access system that will connect the "other 3 billion" people in the world's poorest and most fragile states.
Worst idea: The notion that the West can afford to fail in Afghanistan and still have a chance of preventing the collapse and terrorist takeover of Pakistan.
Gadget: Facebook and iPhone.
Read more: "The COINdinistas: An Insider's Guide," By Thomas E. Ricks
45. Abdolkarim Soroush
for pitting his theological might against Iran's Islamist regime.
religious philosopher | Institute for Epistemological Research | Iran
A one-time philosopher at Tehran University, Soroush has perhaps done more than any other thinker to reconcile Islam with democracy. Drawing on ideas that range from the Quran to Karl Popper, Soroush argues that no individual can ever have an infallible understanding of God's law. Therefore, people should work to advance God's aims, which must be based on the betterment of humankind. This philosophy is a direct challenge to the Islamic Republic, which bases its legitimacy on the God-given right of its preferred Islamic scholars to rule. This year, Soroush sharpened his attacks on Iran's religious establishment in a blistering open letter to the supreme leader titled "Religious Tyranny Is Collapsing: Rejoice!" As resentment over the stolen election still simmers, Soroush's ideas offer Iran a way forward that establishes an Islamic foundation for a true, representative democracy.
Reading list: The Theological Aspect of Reform Judaism, by Max L. Margolis; Zen in the Art of Archery, by Eugen Herrigel.
Wants to visit: Egypt
Best idea, worst idea: Just (as in fair) liberty, not just (as in only) liberty.
Gadget: None. I'm a little bit old-fashioned.
46. Muhammad Yunus
for proving that the poor are profitable.
Economist | Grameen Bank | Bangladesh
Yunus might be the only banker to escape the financial crisis not just unscathed, but noticeably buoyant. A quarter-century after its founding as the world's first microlender to the poor, Yunus's Grameen Bank looks the very model of modern capitalism. The poor, Yunus has found, pay back their debts at least as well as their better-off peers, so much so that Grameen Bank now turns a profit. Yunus, whose work on microcredit earned him a Nobel Peace Prize and a U.S. Presidential Medal of Freedom, among other honors, has been an outspoken advocate of financial reform this year, calling for the global democratization of credit. "The real issue" is not charity, he writes in his autobiography. It's "giving every human being a fair chance."
47. Christopher Hitchens
for puncturing the received wisdom at every opportunity.
columnist | Vanity Fair, Slate | Washington
It is hard to recall a major political or cultural debate of the past few decades in which Hitchens has not taken a side -- and not just taken it, but run with it, and kept on running. The prolific "ex-Trotskyist popinjay," in the words of one of his detractors, has called for Henry Kissinger to be prosecuted for war crimes, famously railed against Mother Teresa, and lampooned the left for its quiescent response to the fatwa against Salman Rushdie. His latest book, God Is Not Great: How Religion Poisons Everything, makes the case that religion is basically evil. Today, as many pundits have retreated from their support of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Hitchens remains a die-hard proponent: "A rumor from Guantanamo will convulse Peshawar, the Muslim press preaches that the Jews brought down the Twin Towers, and a single citation in a British honors list will cause the Iranian state-run press to repeat its claim that the British government … paid Salman Rushdie to write The Satanic Verses to begin with," he wrote recently in Slate. "Exactly how is such a mentality to be placated?"
48. Ayaan Hirsi Ali
for her provocative critique of Islam, the religion of her youth.
Author | American Enterprise Institute | Washington
Call her the Muslim Nietzsche. Since renouncing her religious roots in 2002, Hirsi Ali has become one of the world's most outspoken critics of Islam. Born in Somalia and raised in Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, and Kenya, Hirsi Ali fled to the Netherlands in 1992 and was later elected a member of the Dutch parliament. Her 2007 autobiography, Infidel, sealed her reputation as a provocateur. Now a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a U.S. resident, her challenge to Islam is stark: End the repression of women, stop honor killings and forced marriages, and open up to cultural reform. To that end, Hirsi Ali is focusing her energies on Obama, whom she hopes will "speak truth to Islam because others can't."
Reading list: The Brothers Karamazov, by Fyodor Dostoyevsky; War and Peace, by Leo Tolstoy; Who Are We? The Challenges to America's National Identity, by Samuel P. Huntington.
Wants to visit: Iran, to ask Ahmadinejad what is going on in his head.
Gadget: Neither Facebook nor Twitter. Definitely BlackBerry.
49. Tariq Ramadan
for dedicating his life to proving that Europe and Islam are not incompatible.
Religious scholar | Switzerland
For his entire life, this grandson of Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna has been called a walking contradiction: an Islamic intellectual who espouses democracy but believes religious law is universal, who detests Zionism but also denounces anti-Semitism, and who supports Palestinian resistance but criticizes terrorism. For just as long, Ramadan has been out to prove that his worldview makes perfect sense. Ramadan wants to articulate an Islam that is compatible with the liberal democracies of Europe (where he grew up and now lives), one that advocates an end to victimhood and engages with the world's political reality. Not surprisingly, Ramadan has often run into controversy -- and frequently has relished it. No wonder his latest book, What I Believe, "is a work of clarification," as he writes. It is meant to spell out the "basic ideas I have been defending for more than twenty years."
Reading list: The Sum of All Heresies, by Fredrick Quinn; Angels in My Hair, by Lorna Byrne; Contemporary Chinese Philosophy.
Wants to visit: Egypt, from which I am banned.
Best idea: Put an end worldwide to nuclear weapons.
Worst idea: Promote an "ethical capitalism."
Gadget: Facebook, BlackBerry, and iPhone.
50. Nicholas Christakis
for explaining why it's our friends who define us.
medical sociologist | Harvard university | Cambridge, Mass.
It's not only germs that can be contagious. Christakis, who has both a medical degree and a Ph.D. in sociology, has studied how individuals' social networks influence whether they are happy or sad -- and even skinny or fat. In their 2009 book Connected, Christakis and co-author James Fowler expanded the known instances of "network contagion" by identifying examples in everything from back pain to political beliefs. The idea that having fat friends could be contagious made headlines for Christakis, but his longer-lasting impact will come when his revolutionary understanding about social networks starts being applied to real-world crises.
Reading list: Not by Genes Alone, by Peter Richerson and Robert Boyd; The Mystery of Economic Growth, by Elhanan Helpman; Stumbling on Happiness, by Daniel Gilbert.
Wants to visit: New Zealand, Australia, and Peru.
Most interesting idea: That human culture and activities may be changing our genes.
Worst idea: That the United States needs to increase its troop strength in Afghanistan.
Gadget: Facebook and iPhone.






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