Pakistan's Failing War on Terror

Excellent title and brilliant analysis! I fully agree with the author's contention that the real war against terror is not in Afghanistan, not in Iraq or elsewhere, but in Pakistan.

In the real world there are no ideal solutions. Life and its events present one with unique situations and circumstances and hence they have to be dealt with by the best available resources. Setting targets and
goals and having a vision is important along with timing and execution. Solutions have to be realistic and hence ‘gettable’.

Its been several years since I faced the frustration, disgust and encounters with the system and its cronies in Pakistan. I saw the country declining and become a victim of the decline.

The decades of the 80s and 90s were perhaps the most crucial – hatred, chaos, inflation and poverty reigned supreme coupled with the insensitivity of the ruling elite. Traces of religious fanaticism were becoming evident – the transition was too obvious to miss.

Whereas human rights violations were on the rise, thanks to the introduction of the outdated and distorted Sharia laws and severe punishments, certain extreme forms of Islam were aggressively ‘marketed’ by the powers that be and intensely enforced. Someone, somewhere had a ‘vision’ – the vision was to strike at the very root of an otherwise secular minded populace and turn religion into a tool of anarchy and
destruction.

One feels sad at what has become of Pakistan. The transformation from a ‘not so bad’ to a notoriously rogue state has only vindicated my fears. I remember asking a Pakistani journalist visiting Washington back in the time when the Taliban were plundering Afghanistan with Pakistan’s help about the diplomatic repercussions and loss of Islamabad’s goodwill amongst the polity of nations. The lady reacted rather vociferously and said that it was Pakistan’s bounden duty to assist its ‘brethren’ who were waging a war for the establishment of an Islamic order.

At that time I wondered if Islam was really what the Taliban were trying to enforce or was Afghanistan just another Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) experiment, another project for power conducted by the ambitious
generals within the armed forces network to influence regional politics.

Your truly is often blamed by all and sundry for being ultra skeptical about the state of affairs, for my negativity about the Pakistani mess. I agree that that I am a diehard critic of the country’s military and the politicians. But there are times, such as the current one, when I feel sorrowful and inadvertently start thinking about solutions. I try to get over my disappointments and ponder realistically about what can be done.

I’ve been a student of politics and world history for as long as I remember. I consider each day as a continuation and extension of what I studied and learnt at school.

Having said that, I am at a loss to present any plausible solutions for Pakistan! The country seems to be at odds with itself. There are too many role players trying to gain control of the circumstances. As President Barack Obama’s announces sending 30,000 US troops to Afghanistan today, finding a way out of the Pakistan quagmire is next to impossible. The vital signs are not functioning too well, not receptive to the changing needs of time. Basically, it has all the characteristics of a failed state.

Amidst all the gloom and dreariness that cloaks the Pakistani horizon, lo and behold, we must make a reality check of the surroundings and the
international system as whole. No matter how much the Pakistanis refuse to acknowledge, the country is a center of terrorism, a monstrous production house of the mullahs and the Taliban aided by elements within
the government machinery.

How do we revive this failed state? That’s the real catch-22!

Pakistan needs a perestroika, a glasnost. Yes, these can turn out to be just fallaciously high-sounding, fantastic but meaningless terms if the very essence and spirit of the concepts are not captured or complied with. Believe it or not, its leadership has deceived the Pakistani nation forever; the ‘little man’ has been trampled, by such slogans innumerable
times in its history.

The situation is a bit different now. It is shameful and it is extraordinarily ‘tight’. There is no time to deceive or go back and forth on terms and concepts that may not deliver. Not long ago we did hear
General Musharraf talk about introducing the phenomenon of ‘enlightened moderation’ that he stole from a great US Secretary of State. Did he mean anything when he uttered these sacred words? He might have at that time but that doesn’t even matter anymore. The country is in shambles. I fail to see any traces of ‘moderation’ – all that is visible is red-hot emotionalism aimed at killing in the name of religion for the sake of power.

My suggestion, no matter how utopian it may sound but I’ll go ahead with its enunciation, is that for a period one year, a body of individuals should be formed to run the country. This body should be named as the Reformation Council and be composed of personalities who have impeccable and unblemished track records. Honesty, integrity, academic excellence
should be the hallmarks of their respective characters. Thorough background checks should be made and it should be ensured that no one has skeletons in their respective closets.

The system should be purged of all political and military elements. The military should be sent back to the barracks and assigned to safeguard and secure the country’s borders. No more perks and privileges for the generals, no shortcuts to accumulate wealth anymore.

The Council should take over foreign and economic affairs and cleanse the body politic, introducing reforms with respect to the constitution, electoral process, human rights, and break the back of the rich and the powerful elite and the landowners, thereby ending their stronghold on the system.

Most importantly the Council must be empowered to deal with religious fanaticism head-on. Members should be provided with all possible help, intelligence etc., that would assist in tracking down the crazies. An elaborate paraphernalia should be created that would help analyze the situation and ruthlessly target the fanatics. Also, Pakistan must become an IAEA signatory at the earliest possible so that fears of the terrorists taking over the nuclear program can be minimized to a certain extent.

On the foreign policy front, the first priority should be to enter into agreements with neighboring states and make peace with them. Afghanistan and India have been victims of ISI orchestrated insurgencies in the past. The Pakistanis must solemnly pledge never to interfere in their affairs.

Washington must continue its support. However, this support should be conditional and with checks and balances. In addition, area specialists should be sent over in order to aid the reform body in the policy making process. These ‘advisors’ should preferably stay on beyond the one-year mandate of the Council. Islamabad must work with the US, rather than being a resistance.

I understand that I over-emphasize the US role in sorting out the Pakistan situation more than often. I, as an individual, have strong faith in the United States. It is my strong belief that, given an opportunity, the US can fix even the harshest of issues because of all the intellect and resources available. I truly respect the spirit for which the US stands for as a nation with my heart and soul.

Pakistan should be renamed ‘Republic of Pakistan’, getting rid of the ‘Islamic’ part. The people have had enough of Islam that has been used as a convenient mechanism to fool around with public sentiments. Religious minorities should be considered a part and parcel of the community without any exceptions. All must work together to uplift the soul of the nation.

By the same token, Pakistan should pick and choose its friends carefully. Granted that the Arabs have helped the country financially for ages now but their assistance has come with a heavy price tag. Interaction with the Saudis and the Emirates should be restricted so that they are no longer in a position to interfere in the internal affairs.

Israel is one country Pakistan can highly benefit from to a great extent. There is a commonality of interests on a number of counts. Both have been targeted by acts of violence and terrorism in the name of religion. That in itself is perhaps the most appropriate area to work on, cooperate and become allies against terrorism.

Whereas Israel has on several occasions shown the accommodation to shake hands, it’s been the Pakistanis who are perhaps reluctant to go forward because of the ‘Islamic brotherhood’ issue. They must realize that, first, there is no such thing as ‘Islamic brotherhood’ in the modern day world, and, secondly, even if there is one, they need to extricate themselves out of it, make the hard choices and move forward by going for pragmatism rather than stupendous hallucinations.

Furthermore, borders with India should be opened. A relationship of trust and confidence should be established. People in India and Pakistan were one not long ago and lived together for centuries. The very premise of the Kashmir issue should be considered as a forgotten phenomenon. For all practical purposes, Kashmir belongs to India and the Pakistanis must let
go of the issue.

Institutions of religious reconciliation and inter-faith dialogue should be formed. The public should be allowed to debate the matters to do with
faith related stress that the society is suffering from. Findings of these institutions should be considered and given practical shape when policies are made.

The media should be set free. Dissent should be allowed. The right of the people to express themselves should be respected at all times.

I understand that all this sounds somewhat impractical. Of course, the biggest question is: ‘who will appoint the Reformation Council?’ Where are we going to find all these folks to form the Council? Well, this is where my plan meets its Waterloo! My proposal is just a wish, a cry in the wilderness to revive the fortunes of a failed state that could be the world’s most vicious terrorist breeding ground.

Time is short. The country is facing a crisis of leadership. There is no way that the current setup can provide any relief to the nation in absolute turmoil. The options of shaping the future of Pakistan are limited. Pakistan must work hard to function successfully and prove itself to be a worthy and a productive part of the international system. Achieving this objective is not impossible – all that is needed is the recognition of ground realities, the right tools and the people to get the job done under US patronage.

Pakistan has been trapped in deadly whirlpool and no short term solution can be implied to get rid of this concept of extremism which is implanted on our soil for specific purpose.The tragedy is that all were planned with intentions and now when their planning was backfired they took more aggressive steps to handle them.Mushroom growth of jihadi fanatics are by product of war on terror and now a localized group has been scattered where they got free space of absorption.
Now US is handling them on all same level as picking few to eradicate is impossible for them so destroy them all is actually showing more violent producing phenomena in the region.
Just get the figures of causalities in war on terror region and one can easily find that women and children numbers are more than men.Civilian data of killing is more than real wanted targets so what is behind all this mess.One civilized nation is having genocide of an illiterate and deprived class and all developed countries are silent and ignorant on this crime against humanity.
This is shocking surprise for us that even rulers of NATO forces are not hearing even the voice of their media and still interested of fulfilling the friendship promises with US govt.

I don't think this "It's all in Pakistan" theory works.

a) if the problem is Al-Qaeda then Al- Qaeda can move. They can up sticks and take thier operation elsewhere. Also the AQ is now an idea not just an individual group, it serves as a handy shortcut for a grouping. Trying to fight AQ is fighting an amorphous gel of things - you can struggle as hard as you want it will fit around the circumstance.

b) WHERE IS INDIA? You can't have a discourse about all of this without India - which, thanks to some hard lobbying, and potential markets has managed to slip itself out of the whole discussion. Don't let the quest for customers overshadow the real issues. The Pak army is suspicious of India. The US is busy co-operating with India at an operational military level. Why would the Pak Army want to co-operate wholeheartedly with the US if the US is busy working with its own enemy? The elephant in the room is also Kashmir. Since Musharraf left the whole Kashmir issue has been buried. That means you have one of the biggest political thorns in South Asia firmly wedged in the minds of the population and nothing being done about it

c) Want to get the PAK Elite to do something about the AQ threat? Stop thier kids going to Harvard/Oxford, stop them taking YOUR aid money and putting it in Swiss bank accounts. Get them to start solving the HUGE background issues that give AQ and the Taliban support. Lack of education for the people, lack of opportunity, corrupt systems and generally terrible government.

d) Get the GCC countries involved in blocking the Haqani networks and the funds that run through UAE etc that come from these guys and ultimately help fund these operations.

e) Target aid at Waziristan and the Frontier. Tell Pakistan that the operations in those areas must also involve nation building. The benefits of being part of a functioning state must be apparent to the Pashtun farmer as well as the Islamabad elite.

f) ohh and finally stop saying "The problem is Pakistan". The worst thing to do is to alienate the Pakistan people, do that and its more fish for the sharks to hide amongst. The problem isn't "Pakistan" , its a minority of people - just as in the US , it's not the "Americans" that hate Obamacare ..its just the Teabaggers

and that's just the beginning...

Direct Hex got it right: AQ is now an idea not just an individual group, it serves as a handy shortcut for a grouping. Trying to fight AQ is fighting an amorphous gel of things - you can struggle as hard as you want it will fit around the circumstance.

EXACTLY.

"AQ" will even manifest itself as Officer Nidal in the US Army.

Here is what the ex CIA station chief in Kabul has to say:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/graham-e-fuller/global-viewpoint-obamas-p_b_201355.html

I quote the CIA officer:

"Only the withdrawal of American and NATO boots on the ground will begin to allow the process of near-frantic emotions to subside within Pakistan, and for the region to start to cool down. Pakistan is experienced in governance and is well able to deal with its own Islamists and tribalists under normal circumstances; until recently, Pakistani Islamists had one of the lowest rates of electoral success in the Muslim world.

But U.S. policies have now driven local nationalism, xenophobia and Islamism to combined fever pitch. As Washington demands that Pakistan redeem failed American policies in Afghanistan, Islamabad can no longer manage its domestic crisis."

How stupid can our policy makers possibly be? It is as simple as the CIA person says: Our foreign policy engenders anti-Americanism. Got it?

We have indirectly killed >1 million muslim civilians in Iraq and Af/Pak.

M.I.T. Study:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12150

The US-led war on terrorism has left in its wake a far more unstable world than existed on that momentous day in 2001: Rather than diminishing, the threat from al Qaeda and its affiliates has grown, engulfing new regions of Africa, Asia, and Europe and creating fear among peoples from Australia to Zanzibar. The US invasions of two Muslim countries have so far failed to contain either the original organization or the threat that now comes from its copycats in British or French cities who have been mobilized through the Internet. The al Qaeda leader is still at large, despite the largest manhunt in history.

Afghanistan is once again staring down the abyss of state collapse, despite billions of dollars in aid, a hundred thousand Western troops, and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. The Taliban have made a dramatic comeback. The international community had an extended window of opportunity for several years to help the Afghan people—they failed to take advantage of it.

Pakistan has undergone a slower but equally bloody meltdown. In 2007 there were 56 suicide bombings in Pakistan that killed 640 people, compared to just 6 bombings in the previous year.

In 2009, American power lies shattered, US credibility lies in ruins. Ultimately the strategies of the Bush administration have created a far bigger crisis in South and Central Asia than existed before 9/11.

Eight years of neocon foreign policies have been a spectacular disaster for American interests in the Islamic world, leading to the rise of Iran as a major regional power, the advance of Hamas and Hezbollah, the wreckage of Iraq, with over two million external refugees and the ethnic cleansing of its Christian population, and now the implosion of Afghanistan and Pakistan, probably the most dangerous development of all.

This is what the US government’s Defense Science Board has to say on the situation: LOOK AT IT:

http://www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/2004-09-Strategic_Communication.pdf

“American efforts have not only failed in this respect: they may also have achieved the opposite of what they intended.

American direct intervention in the Muslim World has paradoxically elevated the stature of and support for radical Islamists, while diminishing support for the United States to single-digits in some Arab societies.

• Muslims do not “hate our freedom,” but rather, they hate our policies.

The overwhelming majority voice their objections to what they see as one-sided support in favor of Israel and against Palestinian rights, and the longstanding, even increasing support for what Muslims collectively see as tyrannies, most notably Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan, and the Gulf states.

• Thus when American public diplomacy talks about bringing democracy to Islamic societies, this is seen as no more than self-serving hypocrisy. Moreover, saying that
“freedom is the future of the Middle East” is seen as patronizing, suggesting that Arabs are like the enslaved peoples of the old Communist World — but Muslims do not feel this way: they feel oppressed, but not enslaved.

• Furthermore, in the eyes of Muslims, American occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq has not led to democracy there, but only more chaos and suffering. U.S. actions appear in contrast to be motivated by ulterior motives, and deliberately controlled in order to best serve American national interests at the expense of truly Muslim selfdetermination.

• Therefore, the dramatic narrative since 9/11 has essentially borne out the entire radical Islamist bill of particulars. American actions and the flow of events have
elevated the authority of the Jihadi insurgents and tended to ratify their legitimacy among Muslims. Fighting groups portray themselves as the true defenders of an Ummah (the entire Muslim community) invaded and under attack — to broad public support.

• What was a marginal network is now an Ummah-wide movement of fighting groups. Not only has there been a proliferation of “terrorist” groups: the unifying context of a shared cause creates a sense of affiliation across the many cultural and sectarian boundaries that divide Islam.”

====

Our messing around overseas (witness our clear involvement with the terrorist murder of 5 Iranian revolutionary guards recently) causes blowback terrorism. It does not matter whether or not AQ has any safe havens or not or whether Hezbollah is rearming— regular people — heck, even US army officers, it appears — can become radicalized by the sheer extent of our injustice abroad.

Note I am not justifying what they did. Their means are WRONG. But their cause is, at least partly, just.

We need to stop our addiction to oil and leave the middle east.

Force — even when wielded by the seemingly strong against the nominally weak — continues to be an exceedingly uncertain instrument. The United States’ penchant for projecting power has created as many problems as it has solved. Genuinely decisive outcomes remain rare, costs often far exceed expectations, and unintended and unwelcome consequences are legion.

The pursuit of US military dominance is an illusion, the principal effect of which is to distort strategic judgment by persuading policymakers that they have at hand the means to make short work of history’s complexities. The real need is to wean the United States from its infatuation with military power and come to a more modest appreciation of what force can and cannot do.

We have to come to the painful conclusion that we have created much of the terrorism and anti-Americanism that we are subject to via our terrible foreign policies. It will be difficult to protect us from our (well-earned) blowback without fixing our own foreign policy.

And stop driving Hummers you stupid people! If you drive a Hummer you support terrorism against Americans. Got it?

That is it.

Pakistan is a secondary player in its own backyard, because it is an inefficient, weak, and irresponsive government. Judicial homogenization is a fiction.

Islamabad - it's all in the name - is struggling with its own identity. And the best it can do, is if we do our best to hermetically seal-off all possible identitarian fall out from Afghanistan. If we fail to do so, "Afpak" will go from military jargon, to a geopolitical reality!

Get the CSTO to take care of north Afghanistan, and move 100,000 NATO troops to Pashtun provinces (South and South East of Afghanistan) and annihilate the insurgency. This will take the pressure off of North West Pakistan. Raise the price of waging war against NATO high enough to shut off all recruitment.

Pakistan's largest backer is China - so we should use political pressure to isolate Pakistan from China - to the point where it can no longer pursue any counter-balancing foreign policy within Afghanistan, Jamu, Kashmir.

If China doesn't budge, we should destroy all of Pakistan's capacity at foreign policy. Including incarcerating the diplomatic corps to neighboring countries, so it severs diplomatic ties of being unable to pursue policy vis a vis China, Afghanistan, and India.

The longer we tarry, the more likely our loss.

Some think "what bollocks"

let me be clear.

You have two arguments -
1 ) The Pakistani's squashed the Swat valley insurgency.
2) The Surge will take care of Afghanistan.

Let me explain something.

There is short-term myopic thinking - that you get from watching too much 24/7 news-cycle television, and then there is the history that is long-term. One is like browsing the internet, the other - like watching plants grow.

In the next four years, we will be militarily defeated by the Afghans, and in 8 years, Pakistan will cease to exist as an independent state.

Nothing, not a thing, will prevent this scenario, except a CSTO Northern-Alliance North Afghanistan force, and all NATO troops focused on Pashtunistan, with a determined effort to isolate the Pashtuns and destroy the insurgency.

And remember boys and girls, when Afghanistan is lost (as 80% probability is lost), the moment of American Hegemony is over- and we're back in the Middle Ages by the time this century is over.

Good'day.

I would favor a "purses and minds strategy":

On the one hand this is an ideological battle. We should restrict the inflow of Arab ideological money that supports hate mongering madrassas. Instead we might promote real education, newspapers, television (even a Punjabi version of Al Jazeera might help), etc. Engaging the ideological battle directly might help too. Hillary Clinton was the first one who made an effort in this direction.

On the other hand we should approach Pakistan as a country exploited by a small elite. That elite uses the Islamist ideology as a way to keep the population occupied. Our aid packages only strengthen the grip of this elite on the country. To loosen their grip we should employ appropriate policies: give Pakistan free trade with the US and promote small Pakistani firms. (Free trade with India might help a great deal to undermine the war mongers too). This would help to build a commercial elite that could challenge the landlords.

I have deep regret after reading the speech of Mr Obama though he tried a a lot to keep a balanced approach while standing between the establishment and the democrats.
The reason why the US has been failing in Afghanistan is not that easy to explain, and I must say, its very much complicated. On December 16, 2001, the Americans helped Osama Bin Laden to escape the mountains of Tora Bora in Afghanistan. There were no Americans troops surrounding the mountain only weak Afghans and the journalists. The governor of Naghar, Hazrat Ali and Haji Zaman, the warlord, were present there then on the que of the Americans and Hazrat Ali facilitated the escape of OBL when the CIA prompted him. Later, Haji Zaman alleged Hazrat Ali who was removed and then he finally settled in France. Hazrat Ali`s attachment with the CIA is not hidden from those who know his status.
The point is that the Americans, instead of sincerely fighting the war, seems to aim at destabilizing Pakistan, with main focus to back up the Indians to be come the tiger of the region, and also the US wants to contain the growing Chinese involvement. If OBL had been arrested, the US plans would not have been successful. Moreover, I believe that the US is deeply interested in the Gawadar Port to keep an eye on Iran, China and the Middle East and therefore the Gawadar project is lingering on one leg.
The US is simply following the diplomacy, "Let Osama run and let`s trample every land in the name of OBL till the mission is accomplished."
The American are urging Islamabad to do more but meanwhile they are busy in striking a deal with Mullah Omar through Saudi Arabia, as most of the personnel of the security establishment opine. But the US administration raises clamour when the ISI, the Pakistan premier intelligence agency, tries to talk to the militants.
The best solution towards the problem is to shun hypocrisy for the sake of stable South Asia because stability in the SA is a guarantee of the peace in the world. So the Americans, instead of cushioning India, should bring both countries closer, (2) adopt a clean and an honest approach towards the problem (3) should an inquiry into the weak decisions of General Tommy Franks and Donald Rums Field.......

Well I belief we should back president becouse we dont have any other choice defeat in afganistan is not an option at all.
But one thing is for shure that to gain any sort of real succuss in Afganistan it is very important to support and stabalize pakistan against its efforts against militants in pakistan which they believe are beining funded and supported by RAW.
Its very very important to settle the issues between those two arch rivals either in the favour of India or Pakistan but they must be resolve otherwise it is impoosibe to stabalize the region over there and militants will continue to take advantages of that.
Pakistan is thought to be helping its allies in Afganistan for its own obvious reasons and India supports and funds pakistani talaban and rebels in pakistani provinces for its own obvious reasons.
So its very very important to settle those regional issues which are no regional any more because the secruity and peace of the world is directly effected by them.
The world cannot efford to ignore south asia any more otherwise forget about any succes in Afganistan and South Asia.

"By now, as in so many other elements of the Global War on Terror, the U.S. has become more part of the problem than part of the solution. We are sending troops to defend troops that themselves constitute an affront to Afghan nationalism. Only expeditious American withdrawal from Afghanistan will prevent exacerbation of the problem. "

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/04/opinion/04iht-edfuller.html?_r=1&ref=global&pagewanted=print

December 4, 2009
Op-Ed Contributor
Stretching Out an Ugly Struggle
By GRAHAM E. FULLER

Many decades ago as a fledgling C.I.A. officer in the field, I was naïvely convinced that if the facts were reported back to Washington correctly, everything else would take care of itself in policymaking. The first loss of innocence comes with the harsh recognition that “all politics are local” and that overseas realities bear only a partial relationship to foreign-policy formulation back home.

So in looking at President Obama’s new policy directions for Afghanistan, what goes down in Washington politics far outweighs analyses of local conditions.

I had hoped that Obama would level with the American people that the war in Afghanistan is not being won, indeed is not winnable within any practicable framework. But such an admission — however accurate — would sign the political death warrant of a president to be portrayed as having snatched defeat out of the jaws of “victory.”

The “objective” situation in Afghanistan remains a mess. Senior commanders acknowledge that we are not now winning hearts and minds in Afghanistan; indeed, we never can, and certainly not at gunpoint. Most Pashtuns will never accept a U.S. plan for Afghanistan’s future. The non-Pashtuns — Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, etc. — naturally welcome any outside support in what is a virtual civil war.

America has inadvertently ended up choosing sides in this war. U.S. forces are perceived by large numbers of Afghans as an occupying army inflicting large civilian casualties. The struggle has now metastasized into Pakistan — with even higher stakes.

Obama’s policies would seem an unsatisfying compromise among contending arguments. Thirty thousand more troops are less than called for and will not turn the tide; arguably they present more American targets for attack.

They will heighten traditional xenophobia against foreigners traipsing through Pashtun villages and homes. It is a fool’s errand to persuade the locals in Pashtun territory that the Taliban are the enemy and the U.S. is their friend. Whatever mixed feelings Pashtuns have toward the Taliban, they know the Taliban will be among them long after Washington tires with this mission.

The strategy of the Bush era envisioned Afghanistan as a vital imperial outpost in a post-Soviet dream world. That world vision is gone — except to a few Washington diehards who haven’t grasped the new emerging global architectures of power, economics, prestige and influence.

The Taliban will inevitably figure significantly in the governance of almost any future Afghanistan, like it or not. Future Taliban leaders, once rid of foreign occupation, will have little incentive to support global jihadi schemes — they never really have by choice. The Taliban inherited Osama bin Laden as a poison pill from the past when they came to power in 1996 and have learned a bitter lesson about what it means to lend state support to a prominent terrorist group.

The Taliban with a voice in power will have every incentive to welcome foreign money and expertise into the country, including the Pashtun regions —as long as it is not part of a Western strategic package.

An austere Islamic regime is not the ideal outcome for Afghanistan, but it is by far the most realistic. To reverse ground realities and achieve a markedly different outcome is not in the cards and will pose Obama with the same dilemma next year.

Meanwhile, Pakistan will never be willing or able to solve Washington’s Afghanistan dilemma. Pakistan’s own stability has been brought to the brink by U.S. demands that it solve America’s self-created problem in Afghanistan. Pakistan will eventually be forced to resolve Afghanistan itself — but only after the U.S. has gone, and only by making a pact with Taliban forces both inside Afghanistan and in Pakistan itself.

Washington will not accept that for now, but it will be forced to fairly soon. Maybe the Pakistanis can root out bin Laden, but meanwhile, Al Qaeda has extended its autonomous franchises around the world, and terrorists can train and plan almost anywhere in the world; they do not need Afghanistan.

By now, as in so many other elements of the Global War on Terror, the U.S. has become more part of the problem than part of the solution. We are sending troops to defend troops that themselves constitute an affront to Afghan nationalism. Only expeditious American withdrawal from Afghanistan will prevent exacerbation of the problem.

Afghans must themselves face the complex mechanics of internal struggle and reconciliation. They have done so over long periods of their history. The ultimate outcome is of greater strategic consequence to Pakistan, Russia, China, Iran, India and others in the region than to the United States.

Europe and Canada have lost all stomach for this mission that is now promoted primarily in terms of “saving NATO” for future (and obsolescent) “out of area” struggles in a world in which Western strategic preferences can no longer predominate.

In a counterbalance to the mini-surge, Obama wisely establishes a date for genuine withdrawal in 2011. The surge may just be worth it if it enables Obama to put the U.S. military and Kabul on notice that time is quickly running out to demonstrate genuine political and military progress.

So the ugly struggle continues with little prospect for genuine improvement. There are no good choices. Obama has only kicked the can down the road.

Only with immense luck will his real goal — creation of the minimally acceptable terms for an American withdrawal — come into sight, providing a tiny fig leaf to mask what will essentially constitute a strategic American failure that was inherent nearly from the beginning in America’s global military response to the challenge of 9/11.

Graham E. Fuller is a former C.I.A. station chief in Kabul and a former vice-chairman of the C.I.A.’s National Intelligence Council. He is author of numerous books on the Middle East, including “The Future of Political Islam.”
Tribune Media Services

I have a theory....
I have tried to analyze this Afghanistan conundrum in the given set of information available to public knowledge; therefore biggest assumption I have to make here and put up upfront is that US is sincere in its efforts and there are no bizarre hidden forces at work by US themselves.

Now the analysis... whatever route in my “Cause- Probability-Effect” diagram I chose, all routes led me to a particular piece of this zig-saw puzzle. Some simpler assumptions led me to this ‘puzzle-piece’ directly; others took very long circuitous route to reach to this ‘piece’ on my multi sheet analytical diagram.

The zig-saw piece I am referring above is the “institution” called India (note, ‘Institutional India’ is slightly different from the country India). India, not because it has any ill-will against any group (not even Pakistan). Today the institutional India actually wants a stable Pakistan. Nor it is because this India wants any gung-ho relationship with Afghanistan. The reason lies in only one word in the next line…. Afghanistan is a ‘natural’ ally of India.

Why and how ‘natural’, would be a complex and discrete discussion topic (I hope authors will pick this topic in due course). Here I shall write just few sentences… Afghani populace preference for proximity to India lies in the history, wars, culture, British rule, music etc etc… even Taliban foot soldiers have tremendous soft corner for India, this is why rarely you will find any Taliban leader raking up hysteria against India. Taliban leaders and their partners LET alike cannot move Afghan masses against India beyond a topic called Kashmir, that too under the camouflage of Islamic jihad under the patronage of (open) secret masters, Pakistani security establishment.

Masters are ‘master’ because they make sure that at the end of the day the balance of power rests in their favor. When a master is hidden they are nuisance. Statistically, ninety out of hundred times it has been proven that a lasting deal can be made only when such covert masters are made to hide forever; either by design or by force.

This master… namely Pakistani security establishment cannot on its own cut strings and vanish from the scene. After all there are millions military men on duty, supporting their families, run businesses across middle-east in real estate. There are expenses. Therefore to justify their expenses and budget they have to have something. And unfortunately a military must have to find an enemy to justify their existence. It was rather easy for Pakistani security establishment to find an enemy in the name of India.

But why India! many who are unknown to history may ask this question inadvertently. Again I would prefer not going into this topic deeper in the current context. But the fact is…. all the wars and skirmish between India & Pakistan is started from Pakistani side, Border incursions are always from Pakistan side inside India. To undertake such brazen task Pakistani security establishment must have a solid reason.

The reason was readily available!.. After the partition in 1947 it was to fight against so called anti-Muslims India! In 1970’s it was an India who allegedly dismembered Pakistan and created Bangladesh. Now it is Kashmir. There were many more in between in different forms e.g. nuclear explosion test, Sharia law in India, Babri masjid, Kashmir problem in different color etc. etc. It is remarkable that Pakistani security establishment kept shifting the target and Pakistani masses kept accepting new targets and forgetting previous ones! Undoubtedly this propaganda mechanism beats Nazi’s propaganda.

Pakistani masses accepted this because of a fundamental blooper, explained here by a veteran Pakistani journalist Nadeem F. Paracha http://blog.dawn.com/2009/12/03/little-monsters/

Ok, let us be practical and accept Pakistan’s present objection about Kashmir… Key to Kashmir issue is with the people of India. It is because “Indian Institution” allows any province including Kashmiri people to participate in democracy and speak out what they want.

I am not prophet, but by all means and my analysis during my multiple visits to Kashmir, it is evident to me that given a choice today 80% of Srinagar valley will prefer to stay with India, 95% of Jammu will prefer to stay in India and 99.9% of Buddhist Laddakh will vote to stay with India. But I agree there are other issues like POK and wishes of Kashmiri people to move across LOC freely.

Then why not focus on this issue, solve Kashmir. In all likelihood it will be in India’s favor (probability 90%). Pakistan will be too happy to announce that the Kashmir problem is finally solved as long as POK is kept within Pakistan. But, most importantly, Kashmiri people will be happier than ever, they will accept this as long as they can meet their relatives across border.

So, who has the key to United States Af-Pak problem?
Inward (Pull effect)…. Socially, culturally, historically it is India.
Outward (Push effect)…. militarily it is India.
India itself will not budge to move its stance on Kashmir. It will require little nudge by Media and Intelligentsia to make India stir within and awake its “Institutional India”.

Now if you go backward from here you will see that problem of Taliban can be tackled relatively easily. Once Taliban are under control so called Al-Qaeda can be isolated and tamed. World powers can then focus on A-Qaeda. In any case US and NATO should be able to pull out most of their troops.

I disagree with author that Pakistan is failing in war against terror. Success in Swat and Malakand shows that Pakistan Army’s courage and resolve in fight against militants. Now they are launching successful attacks. Menace of terrorism is a huge issue not only for Pakistan but whole world. Pakistan’s efforts in war against terrorism are praised internationally. Defeating militancy is vital for stability of the region and to ensure long lasting peace. Pakistan is fighting Taliban for its own sake. Government’s position on drone strikes inside Pakistan is clear that such attacks are counter-productive, also Pakistani government has been protesting over these attacks. Terrorism is a global issue and need to be tackled jointly. Every country should assist each other in eradication of extremism and terrorism. Pakistan itself is a victim of terrorism. Joint efforts needed to eliminate militants for ensuring peace around the world.

There's little doubt either within Pakistan, its neighbors, or in the 'West' that their military and intelligentsia pursued a deliberate policy of arming and supporting the Taliban in its fledgling stages.

Even if we grant that the Taliban is originally a product of the Soviet War and the warlord tyranny that ensued after the Soviets left, we can't deny that Pakistani policymakers decided very early on to back this new phenomenon in an effort to use Afghanistan as 'strategic depth' in case of an Indian onslaught.

That being said, why does no one ask the question of the Pakistani people:

What gives you the right?

What gives you the right to impose a tyranical and oppressive version of Islam on your Afghan neighbors? When after election upon election, you've rejected that same Islamist mentality in your own country?

What gives you the right to support the Taliban's imposition upon your Afghan brothers and sisters, and yet kill them in droves when they try to establish the same Islam in Pakistan itself?

No matter how oppresive or beligerent Hindu India has been, what gives you the right to manipulate fellow Muslims for your own selfish national goals?

You're trying to pursue freedom for Kashmiris, which is a moral imperative, and yet you're using every immoral means to accomplish that goal, to the extent that many Kashmiris want to have nothing to do with you, or India.

Obviously it's hard to imagine a Taliban-style government taking charge in Islamabad, but just imagine for one day that you had live under that tyranny. That your mothers and sisters were banned from attending school, and had to walk around in burqas. That your fathers and brothers were flogged in public for not having a beard long enough. That you were forced to stop everything you were doing and coralled at gun-point by the religious police into a masjid and forced to pray.

What the hell gives you the right to impose the very things you detest, on to your own neighbors?

And then you wonder why your country is deteriorating and going to hell in front of your very eyes.

It's divine justice.