
Suppose you are woken up in the middle of the night by a police officer telling you that your teenage son is at the hospital in an alcohol-induced coma. You are shocked and search for reasons. You blame his friends and their wild parties. You blame the bartender who broke the law and served alcohol to a minor. You blame the latest sweet cocktails. You blame your spouse. You even blame the media for making alcohol seem attractive.
Now, consider that the alcoholic son is the financial industry and Americans are the parent who received the wake-up call last fall, when banks collapsed, the credit markets seized, and the U.S. recession spread to the world. Since then, Americans have blamed the wild parties (the housing bubble), the bartender who broke the law (the mortgage brokers with their liar loans), the deceptive latest cocktails (the new derivatives), the permissive spouse (deregulation), greed (excessive executive compensation), and even transparency (the new accounting rules that require mark-to-market).
All of these factors have contributed to the problem. And Barack Obama's administration is attempting to ameliorate some of them with Senate legislation designed to give regulators the ability to break up the biggest banks and create a new consumer-protection agency. But these measures, as well as others under consideration in Europe and Japan, do not address the fundamental cause of the crisis, nor will they help the world avoid more financial disasters down the road.
What really caused the 2008 meltdown -- and is certain to create and burst bubbles in the future -- are the financial industry's distorted incentives. For the past three decades, the most fail-safe way to make money on Wall Street has been to take on risk, borrow, and bet; the crisis did not change that. Either you are lucky and you make a bundle, or you are unlucky and you walk away. In other situations, creditors dampen this opportunistic behavior by imposing covenants and monitoring borrowers. But why bother if the government will bail out ruined gamblers? Then, loans are valuable for borrowers and lenders alike, albeit disastrous from the taxpayer's point of view.
The implicit policy of bailing out large financial institutions -- those behemoths widely thought of as "too big to fail" -- will become explicit if the administration's regulatory reforms are approved. They do not stop the encouragement of bald risk-taking by removing the guarantee that the government will never let big, systemically important banks crater. But short of refusing to bail out banks, regulating them out of existence, or somehow miraculously eroding the profit motive, what should the Fed and Congress do?
There is a way forward, beyond new regulators, new requirements, and new rules, for the banks to figure out how to skirt. An intervention mechanism centered within banks and reliant on market signals will work much better than a Washington edict. And we believe such a system is possible to create and put in place.
The way to do it, contrary though it might seem, lies in the much-maligned credit-default swaps (CDSs), which are like insurance policies against a loan defaulting and whose value rises as the chance of failure increases. When these contracts are traded on an exchange that ensures that they are properly collateralized, they provide a daily assessment of the risk of a loan's default. Our idea is to use this timely information to monitor banks.
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