Iran's Conservative Crackup

A series of political defections and a new poll proves that Ahmadinejad is losing support among the conservatives who once made up his base.

BY GENEIVE ABDO | DECEMBER 9, 2009

The circle around Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is hardening and shrinking -- and more and more, his former allies are turning against him. The regime seems determined to pursue a policy of dictatorship at home and isolation abroad, whatever the cost. Iran's snub of Western attempts to negotiate a deal over its nuclear program -- and the added insult of its recently announced plans to expand its uranium enrichment program tenfold -- are clear signs that cooler conservative heads in Tehran and Qom have lost ground to Ahmadinejad's hard-liners. Many religious Iranians and some conservative clerics, for example, have begun to increasingly feel that the theocratic system has become un-Islamic.

The demonstrations that erupted on Dec. 7 in cities across Iran included not only Westernized students but conservative Iranians as well. The Islamic Republic attempted to thwart the rally by shutting down Internet access, but thousands of Iranians nevertheless marched in the streets. The protests included not only Westernized students, but religious and conservative Iranians as well -- evidence that conservative Iranians are becoming more and more opposed to the state, even if their response is not usually to participate in social unrest.

It's not just protesters, either. A groundbreaking Iranian survey, first published on insideIRAN.org, shows that, in provinces where Ahmadinejad once held widespread support, Iranians now say they wished they had not voted for him.

The polling surveyed more than 11,000 people from 11 rural and small villages in the provinces of Fars and Isfahan. Polling was conducted in four intervals from the summer of 2008, before the contested June 12 presidential election, to the fall of 2009. In the two pre-election polls, respondents were asked to state their choice of candidate. In the two post-election polls, respondents were asked for their views on the disputed election.

Before the election, Ahmadinejad had enjoyed 58 percent support in rural areas and 44 percent support in the small urban areas. After the election, however, it was a different story. The two post-election polls showed that 39 percent of the youth and 23 percent of those over 45 who had voted for Ahmadinejad now regretted their vote. The reasons for this included the rape, murder, and torture of young men and women who participated in demonstrations after the June presidential election and the belief that Ahmadinejad was to blame for the country's economic crisis. In fact, 57 percent of those who said they no longer supported Ahmadinejad admitted that they had received money from Ahmadinejad's subsidy program, which was designed to solidify the president's support among poorer segments of Iran's population. Still, they said, even the money wasn't enough to keep their support.

Ahmadinejad is also facing increased public opposition from traditional conservatives. Their action can only be viewed as an act of protest against Ahmadinejad and his all-powerful supporter, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Now, clerics from the traditional right have joined leftists, such as Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri and Ayatollah Mohammad Mousavi Khoeiniha, in moving away from Ahmadinejad's political faction.

Brent Stirton/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: IRAN, MIDDLE EAST
 

Geneive Abdo is director of the Iran program at the Century Foundation and is editor of www.insideIRAN.org. The Century Foundation's Arash Aramesh conducted research for this article.

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COOPERR

10:51 AM ET

December 10, 2009

What will it look like when they leave the sidelines?

I struggle to see how those leaving the government will wield influence in the future. Do you see them joining the street protests? Perhaps they will build an independent opposition coalition, albeit one that would be harassed and blocked at every turn? The hardest of the hardliners appear to be consolidating power. How do those on the sidelines get back into the game when they have no power to do so?

 

HASS

11:04 AM ET

December 10, 2009

Iranians support their nuclear program

The fact is that the people of Iran -- the same demonstrators -- uniformly and massively support their nuclear program, regardless of what they may think of their government, and they have a long history of resenting foreign powers that have similarly threatened them in their long history (such as the imperial British and Russians.)

 

MARK SEIGLER

11:27 AM ET

December 10, 2009

Agree with BURNINGCHROME

Nobody I know burns cars or is ok with torturing protesters. What's troubling is, we've all seen this before. A leader entrenches in his own power, squelches any dissent then decides to not cooperate with ANY other nations. It's one thing in a nation with only conventional weapons. It's another if that nation is aspiring to "go nuclear" with an administration that is seemingly becoming more fanatical, has threatened to "wipe Israel off the face of the planet" and tolerates a sub culture of self-extinction just to get even with other cultures that have differing opinions.

I understand many nations can be accused of the same general issues here. I think the rest of the world just doesn't trust Ahmadinejad in particular to listen to the peaceful in his nation before he acquires nuclear weapons and the capability to implement them.

 

HASS

2:50 PM ET

December 10, 2009

Iran has a right to power power

There is ZERO evidence of any nuclear weapons program in Iran, and Iran has made several nuclear compromise offers that far exceed its legal obligations -- such as the offer to restrict their enrichment to a few centrifuges, and to open their nuclear program up to joint US participation -- an idea endorsed by the IAEA and US experts. These offers were simply ignored.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/05/opinion/05iht-edzarif.html

And the US has no leg to stand on in complaining about Iran considering its total and blatant disregard for international law and legalization of torture, not to mention support for Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war.

 

MARK SEIGLER

11:17 AM ET

December 11, 2009

Yes and no.

Then why hide the nuclear facility at Qom? If you say it's because Iran thinks the rest of the world is too nosy, you've just made my point. In the '30's Germany had every "right" to it's industrial complex, but what did the leaders do with it? Again, the world has learned from history to watch for certain signs from dictators and has every right to be concerned. I would say Ahmadinejad falls handily into that category. Case closed.

 

HASS

12:32 PM ET

December 11, 2009

They did not "hide" Qom

They "hid" (not really -- it was obvious on satellite imagery, and the Iranians knew this t00) the facility in Qom because it is meant to protect Iran's nuclear program in case of bombings. There's no evidence of any nuclear activity there. El Baradei himself said it is just a hole in the mountain.

 

NORBOOSE

1:26 PM ET

December 11, 2009

Dont be Naive Hass, Every Country Wants Nukes

Hass, there are three types of countries, those with WMDs, those that want WMD's, and those that don't want WMD's because they have a close ally who has WMD's. Having a few nukes entitles a country to do almost anything within its own borders, because any country that might interevene knows it could lose its major cities. Having a lot of nukes entitles a country to actually do whatever it wants within its borders and almost anything in dealing with countries that dont have nukes. They can do this with the knowledge that they can never be defeated in a defensive war. The Soviets and Red Chinese were able top do whatever whims their leaders felt. How rapidly they are pursing nukes is debatable, but they most certainly are.

 

HASS

4:17 PM ET

December 11, 2009

Iran has offered compromise solutions that were ignored.

I am not naive, you are. This conflict is not really about nuclear weapons -- it is about Developing Countries resisting a few Developed Countries who want to monopolize the nuclear technology to make reactor fuel, the only energy source of the near future. This conflict predates Iran's nuclear program. "Nuclear weapons" are only a pretext. Look into it.

And, arccording to the IRanians themselves, nuclear weapons would only spark a regional arms race, and at the same time Iran could not hope to match the US or Russian nuclear arsenal. Iran has consistently pressed for a nuclear-weapons free zone in the Mideast since the 1960s, and the Iranians have made signficant compromise offers that would have made it impossible for them to secretly make nukes -- such as their offer to open their nuclear program to joint operation with the US, and to place extreme limits on their centrifuges -- but these were simply ignored by the US (again, because this isn't about nukes.)

This is what ElBaradei himself has said:

"I have seen the Iranians ready to accept putting a cap on their enrichment [program] in terms of tens of centrifuges, and then in terms of hundreds of centrifuges. But nobody even tried to engage them on these offers. Now Iran has 5,000 centrifuges. The line was, "Iran will buckle under pressure." But this issue has become so ingrained in the Iranian soul as a matter of national pride"
http://www.newsweek.com/id/199149

 

NORBOOSE

1:49 PM ET

December 10, 2009

Iran: The worlds most complicated dictatorship

It is far too easy to oversimplify Iran. Irans average citizens enjoy a semi-modernized standard of life and are therefore, much less inclined to reckless behavior.Unlike most dictatorships, no one monolithic group holds all the cards. Power is divided among groups that have complicated relations to eachother: The religious officials, the conservative populist politicians and their rural constituents, the progressive intellectual politicians and their urban constituents, the professional iranian military and police forces, the Republican guard and its allies, and the apolitical, careerist bureacrats. Currently, the populist politicians and the Republican Guard are increasingly coming to dominate the country. The United States must work to empower the other groups and work around Ahmadinejad or we may eventually have to deal with another North Korea in the heart of the Middle East.

 

NORBOOSE

2:11 PM ET

December 10, 2009

How to compensate for anti-American sentiment

In preemptive response to criticisms about Anti-Foreign Power sentiments making intervention difficult, I concede that it does complicate matters. I would recomend a combination of two actions to compensate. First, we should emphasize how, to a large degree, the current regime is propped up by Russian support. The obvious hit to Russian-American relations is unavoidable, and shouldnt change anything much, since the Russians have shown that, if anything, their current path is towards more aggressive behavior, and there seems to be little we can do about that. The second action is that we should direct any money funding towards independent instituition-building that will increase Iranian international trade and freedom of media, as opposed to direct funding of political groups, which plays into the hands of the current regime.

 

HASS

2:52 PM ET

December 10, 2009

Iranians support their nuclear program

Iran is NOT "propped up" by the Russians, its people resent US inteference in their affairs especially in the nuclear issue, and the regime enjoys far more domestic legitimacy than people want to acknowledge. Read Ervand Abrahamian's article on why the regime has survived for 30 years:
http://www.merip.org/mer/mer250/abrahamian.html

 

NORBOOSE

12:59 PM ET

December 11, 2009

How do you define interference?

I did not mean that Iran is entirely subordinate to the Russians. The Iranians buy most of their military hardware from Russia and hold natural resorce contracts with them. These are all in terms very favorable to the Russians. In a wink wink form of repayment, Russia puts its massive international clout behind the Iranians, without declaring it publicly. This is most evident in UN dealings.

I have read your recommended article, and up untill recently I have been in favor of basically leaving Iran alone. For most of its thirty years of existence, Irans intricate checks and balances did work well enough so that it could not be fairly called a true dictatorship. During the 90's, Iran's foreign policy was downright reasonable. Recently, we have seen a prolonged power grab by some groups of the Iranian establishment, this power grab has clearly made the country more aggressive and less stable. Iran's government still enjoys some support, but that is due to the state-run media and it seems to be slipping away.

As for interference, note that I explicitly wrote against funding political groups. I am a huge fan of MAD and do not believe we should try to forcibly end their nuclear weapons program. Large stable countries with apocalyptically destructive weapons are a prime factor in explaining the relative peace and prosperity of the late-20th century. Any country that feels threatened enough by protestors to give official orders to fire on them clearly does not meet that threshhold. A nuclear, democratic, stable Iran could be a great stabilizing anchor in the region. A violent, repressive, dictatorial, chaotic, and corrupt Iran? Not so much.

 

GRANT

2:17 PM ET

December 10, 2009

While the situation is

While the situation is growing dangerous for Ahmadinejad, I think it grows far more dangerous for the liberals and the religious leadership. If he can't count on the support of conservative Iran he'll probably rely more and more on the military and Basij forces.

 

JIMMY W

4:25 PM ET

December 10, 2009

signs of political jockeying

The "crackup" Abdo describes is more of a political jockeying among the various apparatchiks, to harness the emotions of the streets for political bargaining power. They've worked the system for too long to have genuine "awakenings".

I've described several scenarios on my blog here:
http://americanmohist.blogspot.com/2009/12/iranian-revolution-visualizing_09.html

Norboose, we can help the other Iranian factions by keeping up the nuclear confrontation. The IRGC's portfolio includes guarding the nuclear sites, and the longer the nuclear crisis goes on, that's another day IRGC has to keep people working on nuclear security instead of beating up students in the streets.

 

AR

11:02 PM ET

December 10, 2009

The west, especially the

The west, especially the u.s., should deal with israel's nukes before it tries to talk down to Iran.

 

BURNINGCHROME

11:55 PM ET

December 10, 2009

A more serious reflection...

What is happening today reminds me of when Saddam came to power In Iraq and started purging real and imagined adversaries, on national TV, it can probably be found on youtube somewhere.....

Having said that first and foremost Ahmadinejad doesn't rule Iran. Ayatollah Khameini rules Iran! For whatever reasons, obtuse as they may be, Ayatollah Khameini has chosen Ahmadinejad as his public face.

The structures of Iranian government are built on the clergies paranoia. The Clergy basically ruled Iran for 500 years since the inception of the Safavid declared Iran a Shia state. The first Shah Pahlavi was a sever shock for the clergy as he modelled himself after Attaturk to some degree and separated the state from religion and started to secularise the country including giving Jews, as well as other minorities equal civil rights. It should not be forgotten that Iran historically abused the Jewish community on a par with the worst excesses of Europe. Harsh anti-Jewish laws, massacres and forced conversion of Jews was the norm.

The clergy never got over what happened during the Pahlavi's short dynasty so when they returned to power with Ayatollah Khomeini they immediately formed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard whose primary purpose is to protect the Clergy, their political status and insure both the Islamic and the Shia nature of the state. The IRG are the largest military force in Iran and also one of, if not the largest business entities to ensure funding for the regime and their 'activities'. It is the IRG who is responsible for the nuclear program in Iran. There is no parallel in the west for the IRG. Consequently the notion that regime will soon fall to civil opposition is nothing short of fantasy.

The arguing and purges at the top will have no practical effect in their external relations. This is as it has always been since the return of Khomeini determined by the Clergy.