The 10 Worst Predictions for 2009

Ten pundits and politicians whose prognostications for this year completely missed the mark. 

DECEMBER 16, 2009

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

"While the precise impact of the fall resurgence of 2009-H1N1 influenza is impossible to predict, a plausible scenario is that the epidemic could: produce infection of 30-50% of the U.S. population this fall and winter, ... lead to as many as 1.8 million U.S. hospital admissions during the epidemic, ... [and] cause between 30,000 and 90,000 deaths in the United States."

—Report to the President on U.S. Preparations for the 2009-H1N1 Influenza, President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, Aug. 7, 2009

Although U.S. President Barack Obama's science advisors were careful to point out that the exact impact of H1N1 couldn't be predicted, no other possibilities besides the "plausible scenario" above were presented in their report. The dire numbers, particularly the 50 percent infection rate, were widely reported in the media. The reality turned out to be far milder. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, this fall there were 33,490 confirmed hospitalizations, 1,445 deaths, and 56,410 cases from all types of flu total as of Dec. 5. A bad flu season to be sure, but nothing close to what the advisors were expecting. Visits to the doctor for swine flu declined throughout November and early December.

 SUBJECTS:
 

Joshua Keating is associate editor at Foreign Policy.

THE ONCELER

3:12 PM ET

December 17, 2009

way off on Soros

I don't see what was the least bit wrong about what George Soros said about the economy. I think it's quite obvious that the stimulus bill was helpful but insufficient to turn employment numbers around. That is painfully obvious to anyone looking for work or anyone close to anyone looking for work these days. And the economy is still potentially doing some contracting. We had one quarter of 'growth' which was revised sharply down, much of which came from the Cash for Clunkers program which is now over.

Soros was pretty much right on the money.

 

MAROCI

12:08 AM ET

December 22, 2009

Baloney

Apparently you either didn't bother to read the article linked to, or have some severe deficits in your reading comprehension ability. The article by Soros starts off:

"We are facing the prospect of global deflation and depression, similar to but potentially worse than the 1930s."

Mind you this was not last fall, but in February, after the financial markets had been largely stabilized.

Uh no, George, we are not facing anything remotely resembling what happened in the 1930's.

 

MAROCI

12:17 AM ET

December 22, 2009

Furthermore...

Furthermore, Soros effectively admitted his own error just one month later, stating, as the article pointed out that "The economic freefall has been stopped, the collapse of the financial system averted. National economic stimulus programs are starting to take effect. The downward dynamic is easing." This despite none of the things he insisted were necessary a month prior to avert another Great Depression having been implemented.

 

DERF54

3:46 PM ET

December 17, 2009

There's got to be more...

Mr. Keating sounds particularly disgruntled with right wing pundits. Compare his comments on Krauthammer, Bolton, and Rohrabacher with his opinions on Soros, Emanuel, and Clinton.

I'm not saying any of these politicians and pundits don't clearly deserve to be on this list, but it should be expanded to include the always memorable Mr. Olberman, Mrs. Huffington, and Mr. Shultz. It can't be too difficult to locate some tasty quotes from this bunch can it?

 

PFNOVAK

7:26 AM ET

December 19, 2009

Pundits will always make

Pundits will always make erroneous predictions, but since the election of Obama, many on the right have taken to issuing prophecies fo doom. While they might have been no more wrong in many instances than their leftist counterparts, their brand of rhetoric has been much more likely to seem ridiculous after the fact.

 

MAROCI

12:20 AM ET

December 22, 2009

Give it a rest.

Oh please. Nobody serious takes Olberman or Huffington seriously. The equivalent on the right would be Limbaugh. I'm sure you could find plenty of "tasty quotes" from him too, but it would be a pointless exercise anyone. Only morons give Limbaugh the time of day, unlike Soros, Kruathammer, etc.

 

POILU99

5:41 PM ET

December 17, 2009

Your H1N1 Death Count is far too small

When I look at the CDC November estimates, I see that the estimated death count ranges from ~7,070 to ~13,930, not the 1445 that you report.

Please read the following link for a more informed discussion:

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm

 

MISOFARM

3:45 AM ET

December 29, 2009

Thanks for the link POILU. I

Thanks for the link POILU. I am reading that right now.
Mike from Farmville

 

CURIOUS OBSERVER

10:46 AM ET

December 22, 2009

Time frame?

There is nothing in Jim Rogers's comments to indicate that his forecast had a deadline of, say, a few months out. Long-term, the result is baked into the cake. Is Mr. Keating just looking for an excuse to dump on someone who doesn't like bailing out Goldman and JPMChase?

 

PAMPL

1:20 PM ET

December 23, 2009

Good on Mr. Keating

I want to praise the author for taking a stand against the cowardly escape hatches or tautologies pundits try to sneak in. This passage in particular is what irked me:
"Brown will be tempted to fight on, but if he is well advised and sensible, he will see that this cannot go on. "
Mr. Kettle had enough evidence at the time to judge whether PM Brown is well advised and sensible, so the only reason he added that caveat was to backpedal in case he turned out to be wrong. If he wasn't confident of his prediction he could have honestly expressed his uncertainty by saying that PM Brown would 'probably' or 'possibly' or 'more likely than not' step down. So good on Mr. Keating for ignoring this backdoor.

 

RADYOS

12:00 AM ET

January 2, 2010

danke

okey oynaokey oyna

 

VELMA1977

2:47 AM ET

January 4, 2010

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One way for the retird model is to be a jugde, such as the America's Next Top Model, all the judges are retired models who used to be very famous. British Super Model Twigg is one of the judges, who wears a necklace of Links of London and a black suit. Twiggy's temperament will be subtle performance vividly by Links of London. In these circumstances, jewlries of Links of London brings to the models another kind of beauty which is far away from the exquisite dress and makeup.Four Reasons for You to Preserve A-list links of london

 

JANEYLOD

12:38 PM ET

January 5, 2010

The Crisis in China

China should think to the future and plan something strategic to improve the economy and its position in the world view. Rohrabacher made this alarming prediction during a debate on the U.S. handover of the Panama Canal.Yours,Jane Ylod

 

AZUAN

4:58 AM ET

January 7, 2010

the_10_worst_predictions_for_2009

So many of these predictions get thrown out at this time of year, I'm glad somebody is checking up on them. You should also do a ten best and perhaps track them year to year? Regards; From bachelor degree education

 

FRANKFREDDY

7:49 PM ET

January 11, 2010

predictions

some people make money from their predictions eg. forex and online bachelor degree.

 

MARK84

4:20 AM ET

January 12, 2010

10 worst prediction

For me,anybody will make a prediction.But the most important thing is realize that.

 

HENDRIK

6:18 AM ET

January 15, 2010

there are much more than 10 predictions!

There are hundred of bad predictions for year 2009. This was a very interesting year. So, anyone could make a mistake... and it doesn't actually matter if it is George Stephanopoulos or Obama itself. It is not really contributes to online pharmacy or any other online business, but hey, it is 2010 already and this year has to be better, probably much better.