China: Russia’s Land of Opportunity

Where Russia Meets China: The final part of a 5-part series in cooperation with Slate.

BY JOSHUA KUCERA | DECEMBER 30, 2009

SUIFENHE, China -- In 1989, the opening of the border between Russia and China raised Russian fears of a "yellow peril": millions of Chinese citizens flooding north into relatively unpopulated, but richly endowed, Siberia. Some contrarian publications even went so far as to suggest that Russia should just accept the inevitable and sell the whole territory to China.

Demographically, it makes sense that Chinese people would flock to Russia. Look at it in economic terms, though: China's economy is booming, and its prospects seem limitless. Meanwhile, Russia is highly dependent on uncertain oil and natural gas reserves. Professionals already make more money in China than they do in Russia, and as China's economy grows, blue-collar wages will likely outpace Russian pay. So, rather than Chinese people moving to Russia, isn't it more likely that Russians would move to China?

I asked this question of many Russians in the Far East, and I usually got the same answer: It's already happening. Thus far, the Russian migration to China seems to be only a trickle. But it's not hard to imagine that this is just the start.

The energy in Suifenhe, a relative backwater, is so much greater than in Vladivostok-a city three times the size-that taking the four-hour bus trip across the border is like switching from black-and-white to color. The road from Vladivostok becomes progressively worse the closer you get to the border, and the land is almost empty of people. As soon as you cross the border into China, there is a massive shopping mall with red cupolas, an apparent nod to Russian architecture, and an international-standard Holiday Inn.

The mall is part of what was supposed to be a joint Chinese-Russian free-trade zone, where people would be able to come to shop and tour visa-free. But all Russia has built on its side of the border is a church, which Chinese tourists photograph through the chain-link fence.

The day I arrived was one of the biggest celebrations in recent Chinese history: the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China. Still, at the many construction projects around the city's center, workers were on the job until after dark. I thought back to Vladivostok, where a huge suspension bridge is under construction. It is supposed to be ready by 2012, when the city plays host to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Ostensibly, this is a priority project overseen from Moscow, but when I mentioned to my translator that I hadn't seen anyone working on it, she smiled. "Yes," she said. "We notice that all the time."

Photo by Joshua Kucera

 SUBJECTS: CHINA, RUSSIA, EAST ASIA
 

Joshua Kucera is a freelance journalist based in Washington, D.C. This series also appears on Slate.com.

GRANT

10:17 PM ET

January 1, 2010

One wonders how the Russian

One wonders how the Russian elite see this.

 

NORBOOSE

6:14 PM ET

January 2, 2010

They're Busy

The Russian elite have a full plate: killing lawyers, scaring former soviet satellites, fighting a low-intensity civil war in the north Caucasus while pretending it isnt happening, invading tiny countries, increasing state power over society, playing silly power resource games with the Europeans, planning ridiculously grandiose miliatary strategies, stealing money from state-run companies, stirring up nationalistic rage among the masses, babbling about prestige and respect, and generally thumping their chest at us. They have no interest in anything as mundane as forming realistic policies. The sad thing is that Im honestly not sure how much Im kidding.

In all seriousness, though, there is a strangely predominant view among the Russians that China is somehow on their side, against us. Im not saying China isnt against us to some degree, but it clearly is a lot more comfortable with us than the Russkies.

 

ANDREYSHAHMIDYEV

8:12 PM ET

January 2, 2010

What an Idiot

As a Russian, your comment is a typical western pig who knows nothing :))

1. Low Intensive war in North Caucasus started by Whabit Trained merceneries
that got their training in Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan funded by UAE and the CIA

2. I doubt the author even went to Siberia " Siberia is China " LOL
you know western Siberia is populated by many ethnic groups
they have Industrialized cities with over a million people Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk
Eastern Siberia may not be as populated by the author is stupid, Russia has
140 Ethnic groups, I bet when he saw mongolian looking people in East Siberia
he presumed it was Chinese, FYI, Those are Yakuts, Evens, Nivks and other indegenoeus
Ethnic groups of Siberia they are Turkic people not even related to Chinese :))

3. Russia is not threatening any former Soviet countries
on the Contrary it is NATO that is expanding itself to countries that
don't want part of it e.g. Ukraine

 

NORBOOSE

4:35 PM ET

January 3, 2010

My Counter-counterpoints

All right, lets do this.
1. The north caucasus conflict has been brought about by the Russians on themselves. In the Tsarist days, those societies were largely independent. The Soviets brought them under control through positively monstrous policies of state-run terror and engineered famines. With the decline of the USSR, they tried to reassert their historical autonomy. If the Russian government had responded subtlely, they could have fairly easily defused the situation, but they only respond with pure brute force. Whenever things get worse, Putin says "more control, more killings, more soldiers." The Russian government is reaping what it has and continues to sow.
2. Yes, the author presents a remarkablyy shallow view of Siberia. I think he might be trying to present a more introduction-level piece intended more for those unaccustumed to this short of thing than those who study international affairs seriously. It is also a very tongue-in-cheek article. Siberia is historically home to many distinct peoples of wildly varying descents. That just doesnt affect things that much.
3. Many of the former Soviet states, like Georgia, Ukraine, and Poland have actively tried to rapidly integrate into NATO and similar organizations at a rate so fast that it is mildly troubling to the US and seriously troubling to the Western Europeans.

I do not believe there is inherently wrong with Russian people, as something of a stoic outdoorsman, I admire the frankly-honest and rugged qualities of Russian culture. However, to be frank, your government is the most dangerous thing for the future of humanity. Only Russia, China, and America have the potential to bring about a total apocalyse and Russia is many times more aggressive, unpredictable, and unstable than the US or China.
Finally, am I a western pig or is only my comment a western pig? (I know thats kind of a personal jab but I just couldnt help but point that out)

 

ANDREYSHAHMIDYEV

7:35 PM ET

January 3, 2010

Good for you !

Well good for you for not being a Typical Western Ignorant Trash :))

1) The Caucasus was not fighting the Tsars withexception to some minor regions, regions like Ossetia Alania , Kalmykia were people who devoted their lives defending the borders from the Ottoman, then they were cossack who are slavic,tatar,caucasian origins.

2) Ukraine does NOT want to join NATO
Only Yuschenko who was elected from western " orange revolution "
who only gets 4% approval rating, The people to not want to
join NATO, there are less than 28 % who want to join mostly
from Lviv in Western Ukraine who have polish, Romanian influence

3) Yes, the author is Ignorant, Siberia has many ethnic groups
but claiming its overrun by Chinese just because they look like one
is ignorance, Lets take Yakutia a region with 52 % Yakuts, those are Siberian peoples but are they chinese ? no. I've been to Siberia
and there all less than 30,000 Chinese. Most Chinese who cross the borders are poachers who kill animals like Bears for bear paw soup
and illegal logging

 

BOBCHEN

6:29 PM ET

January 2, 2010

This world is bizarre

What kind of bizarre world we live in where people would come to China to escape corruption and bureaucracy. It's weird to know that there's people more xenophobic than we Chinese are. I guess there's no grim like Russian grim.

Then again, Russia and China have been trying to out-crazy each other for the past century.

 

ANDREYSHAHMIDYEV

8:20 PM ET

January 2, 2010

Propaganda

I suggest the people to go to Siberia and see it for yourself
not from a person that didn't even went there and knows nothing
but writing ignorance :))

Siberia is diverse with Krais, Oblasts and republics
yes its true most Siberian officials appointed by the Kremlin
but it was move by Vladimir Putin tackle corruption and increase federal governance. " Colonialism " is what the British and Americans are doing
why don't you go to Pacific Islands, Puerto Rico etc. where there are
" colonial guards "

Thats why foreigners are hated in Russia because of spewing lies and sheer
ignorance, anyway the west is dying of old age, it tried to make
the EU to be a " hyperpower " and failed

I should make a report on El Paso and the Mexican Border stories
but I'll make sure I give Facts this time, did I forget to tell you
by 2040 Anglo Americans will be a Minority ?? :))

 

GRANT

9:30 AM ET

January 3, 2010

To start, have you even been

To start, have you even been to Puerto Rico before? Past referendums on the question of independence were voted down by the populace, the current leading party favors becoming the 51st state, and I haven't heard much real resentment from Puerto Ricans. To be honest, considering their history that actually surprised me.

Second, if we go by demographics then Russia's population is set to undergo a long-term decline from poor safety standards, alcoholism, and a low birth rate. As I've said many times before I don't trust demographics that go more than a few years into the future, they don't have the ability to take politics or the mood of the public in the future into account*.

*Also as I've said before, an end to a Caucasian majority is hardly an impending apocalypse. You heard precisely the same things said a century ago about Asians, Irish, and Eastern Europeans as you do know about Hispanics.

 

NORBOOSE

4:46 PM ET

January 3, 2010

Calm Down

Look, when you make points this hyperbolic, outdated, and apearently frenzied, people just zone them out. Maybe a crazy on the other side will yell back at you, but real analysts just ignore them. Take a step back, figure out what outside forces influence your opinions, and approach things calmly with an open mind. Your opinion demonstrates many of the problems that have put Russia in a worse place than "the west" or any of the truly developing countries. If you seriously consider my advice, youre welcome. Otherwise take this phrase and rage agianst it. "Oh my loooorrrdd! That mister Putin, he a gonna be the third anti-christ! We a gotta nuke them crazy Ivans! I think I a gonna faint!"

Your call: which intellectual level of discourse do you exist in, which are you capable of, and which do you want to exist in?

 

ANDREYSHAHMIDYEV

7:49 PM ET

January 3, 2010

Ignorance is a Bliss

Puerto Rico is an American Colony like most of its Pacific Territories
it was ceased during the Spanish-American War as part of a Treaty
giving Puerto Rico, Cuba , Philippines. Another reason USA resents Cuba
because of its independence and political status.

second, I Laugh at any westerner who gets the scare that Russia is declining
by 700,000 , This isn't the nineties retards. Since Last Year. Russian Population stopped Declining and 2009 was the Start of Demographic Increase since 1991

third, Hypocrisy isn't it when Western medias continue to depict Russia's declining population
when Europe has one of the worst population crisis in the World, Italy, Greece, Spain,Lithuania
etc. Only France is growing.

but what about Anglo-America ? with 80 % population increase from Hispanics
and immigration. Anglo-Americans will be a Minority by 2040 or England's Muslim
Immigrants will be a Majority by 2035 because of immigration and English low birth rates
Irritating isn't it to hear Propaganda put to your mouth ???? :))

I suggest the Author retake his college degrees, Increase his Intelligence
Ignorance is a Bliss. --> Yakuts, Buryats, Evens, Chukchis etc. may look like Chinese but
they are Not Chinese they are Siberian Ethnic Peoples :))

 

ANDREYSHAHMIDYEV

3:00 AM ET

January 4, 2010

Hypocrite

Caucasians ??? The Caucasus people are not declining
on contrary its Anglo-Americans and I do believe it goes down with it
your hypocrisy in foreign policy and world so called governance on
Hypocrisy in Terrorism . :))