After Pharaoh

Hosni Mubarak's death -- or worse, his failure to give up power -- could throw the largest country in the Arab world into chaos.

BY ISSANDR AMRANI | JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2010

Of all the crises that threaten to shake Barack Obama's presidency, few are more volatile than the ticking time bomb in Egypt, especially terrifying for the very reason that no one knows when it might explode. Hosni Mubarak, the 81-year-old former Air Force marshal who has ruled Egypt as a police state since 1981, might leave office sooner than anyone is expecting, opening a power vacuum that could send this U.S. ally, its 83 million citizens, and the regional political order spiraling into a fragile and potentially paralyzing tailspin.

Or he might not. Mubarak might well linger on for a few more years. Either way, the time bomb will be looming over Egypt for the foreseeable future, and Obama's fortunes in the Middle East will be determined in large part by whether this bomb explodes or gets detonated gently. It's not likely that Mubarak will go down voluntarily. In 2004, he told the Egyptian parliament that he will serve as president "until the last breath in my lungs and the last beat of my heart." Despite incessant rumors of his ill health, he doesn't seem close to those eventualities.

Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood -- the only opposition group worth mentioning -- is waiting in the wings. And the Egyptian regime is so wary of what could happen if Mubarak were suddenly removed from power that, according to one Western intelligence official, it has a detailed plan for shutting down Cairo to avoid a coup, fine-tuned to the detail of playing mournful Quranic verses on state television. Mubarak has never tapped a successor, so interim officials will take over the government to provide short-term continuity and prepare for emergency elections. If they happen, such elections are sure to bring more turmoil.

Due to carefully manufactured quirks in the Egyptian Constitution, the most likely candidate to win is the president's son, Gamal Mubarak, turning Egypt into a hereditary republic -- a "republarchy," as Egyptian-American political scientist and exiled dissident Saad Eddin Ibrahim warned in 2000. Gamal might be acceptable to Egypt's business class, but he is not popular. If he assumes the presidency, it could easily trigger a coup, be it an old-fashioned military takeover or a nonviolent "velvet" one that parachutes a senior military officer to the top of the ruling party. The irony of Egypt's predicament is that it is often the self-described democrats of the opposition who advocate such an intervention by the armed forces, thinking that military rule could provide a steppingstone to democracy. Gamal, on the other hand, promises another Mubarak presidency for life.

Throughout this troubled transition, Egyptian initiatives in the region, such as Cairo's attempts to reconcile the Palestinian factions of Fatah and Hamas and its involvement in the Sudanese peace process, would be frozen. Key allies such as the United States and Saudi Arabia, as well as neighbors like Israel, will worry that the situation could take a turn against their interests and might be tempted to interfere. But they'll be working in the dark: The U.S. State Department is ill-prepared for Hosni Mubarak's departure, former officials from George W. Bush's administration say. When the moment does come, U.S. diplomats will be scrambling to understand the fate of their largest Arab ally, one whose ready cooperation has been central to U.S. designs in the region for nearly three decades.

Bad as this all may seem, the alternative could be even uglier: that Mubarak will hang on to power, run for a sixth term in 2011, and go on ruling the country into advanced age. The example of Habib Bourguiba, who remained president of Tunisia for 30 years until he was removed through a "medical coup" at age 84, comes to mind. That may yet be the worst outcome for Egypt: a prolongation of the current uncertainty, with a president increasingly frail and unable to govern -- leading a regime whose moral authority erodes and where centers of powers multiply, with no end in sight.

ATTILA KISBENEDEK/AFP/Getty Images

 

Issandr Amrani is a Cairo-based independent journalist who blogs at The Arabist

FALLUJAH

11:29 AM ET

January 8, 2010

Elbaradei and peaceful transitional phase is the solution

Egypt is at the verge of fall , politically , economically , and socially including toilet level of human rights due to the oppression and corruption.

a lot of Egyptians seek the freedom,democracy and prosperity but they are between the anvil of the mubarak regime or the muslim brotherhood the most organized opposition in Egypt amid very weak opposition parties who are like useless accessories , " to tell the media we have several parties"

plus the west and the world think and claim that mubarak is a moderate ruler , though he's oppressor and dictator and paving the way to his heir gamal.

The Egyptians found in albaradei , liberal , socialists , islamists and even who have no political tendency, the hope to lead reasonably egypt in a transitional period to fix the tailored constitution to suit mubarak and his son and dismantle it from the low level of life and return it back to its normal condition as leading country in the middle east. the west should be neutral in this case and brush off its false claim that without mubarak the islamists would rule egypt .. on the contrary , mubarak oppression and poverty is very fertile soil for the extremism and terrorism. and the world should stop aiding mubarak's regime.

and i seize the moment to shed a light on a rising group in facebook that urges and supports baradei to take the lead of Egypt and the members are mostly from the youth who long for the change , real positive change towards the freedom and democracy.

it gained momentum and about 1400 new members join it from different background to orbit around optimum , not the best , president to help to dismantle the ongoing sinking ship of Egypt.

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?v=wall&gid=123551066565

 

KAL

3:41 PM ET

January 8, 2010

interesting

The fear from islamic ruler in Egypt has been used by the egyptian government to scare the west about democracy in Egypt and middle east. unfortunately, the west does not understand the nature of Egyptians who despite their deeply religious nature, believe that faith is not the determinant of a good government. Egyptians had and loved many non muslim rulers despite being very islamically oriented. Democracy in Egypt will mean the the liberal, free thinkers in egypt will take power, whether they are muslims or christians. Many of the supporters of El Baradiie believe that by bringing a liberal and a charismatic leader who believes in democracy such as him to power will allow for a positive change in consitution, governance and this will change the bad habits in the society. its a project for an overall development.

 

MANAL ZAHRAN

5:32 PM ET

January 9, 2010

ElBaradei and the support of

ElBaradei and the support of our choosing, we need to do is without consideration to others ... We need in the meantime, in his personality, his knowledge, in thought and culture, in its international relations and political experience, we need to in the sense of the people and the citizen and the sense of crisis experienced by Egypt, we support the candidacy of gentlemen ElBaradei, because we need it and not because the right to stand for all or a result of the exclusion of others .

For a detailed and foreign policy is absurd to waste time in proving his ability and efficiency of the known near and far, and are beyond the experience of Egypt's policy planning together, either in committee or in other policies, which allowed him to assume the positions already are in the highest place the rule of politics and more responsibility from the post Head of State, do not forget that it took over Egypt for 30 years was his political experience - when he took - was far lower than.

For domestic policy and the sense of concerns of the citizen and the problems the country is enough that the man for more than 30 years spent abroad - a point which counts for him and he does not have as fancy tambourine players - has not forgotten his home or end its association with him, but Egypt has been always and never in his mind and heart, and was filled concern, as he said himself in speeches and television, and an example is simple: when he received the Nobel Prize, part of which donated to the people of the popular «stable Antar» - I doubt that Mr. Amin policies known their location on the map - to upgrade their services.