Tick, Tock

The bombs awaiting Obama in 2010.

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2010

It would, of course, be absurd to claim that the world spits out crises to the rhythms of the U.S. political system. Every year brings its share of flare-ups large and small, from wars and coups to famines and natural disasters. But the cycles of American politics matter, not least because they constrain how a U.S. president responds to world events. If Year One is about laying out an agenda and testing a green leader, Year Two is when ambition meets reality. In Year Two, there's no more room for excuses: The team is more or less in place; the president can no longer plead inexperience; and midterm elections loom, sharply curtailing Congress's appetite for risk. And then, the campaign rallies and town-hall meetings of Iowa and New Hampshire are just around the corner. Year Two is usually the last, waning chance to make big things happen, a suggestion of the peril and the promise that await Barack Obama as he enters what is sure to be a tumultuous second year in the Oval Office.

In 1962, John F. Kennedy overcame a rookie mistake at Cuba's Bay of Pigs to stare down Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in the Cuban missile crisis, deftly fending off calls either to escalate and risk nuclear war or capitulate.

Flash forward to 1978, when a triumphant Jimmy Carter stood before both houses of the U.S. Congress and announced what he had just achieved over 13 tension-filled days at Camp David, Maryland: an unprecedented peace agreement between two bitter Middle East rivals, Egypt and Israel. "Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God," Carter said, hailing a historic inflection point that he was sure would spread prosperity and harmony throughout the region. Interrupted 25 times by applause, he had little inkling then of how much his administration was already overlooking the clear signs of a different future for the Middle East, being written by riotous crowds on the streets of Tehran and Tabriz. As with so many American presidents, Carter's year two -- from his Nobel moment at Camp David to the missed signals of the coming Iranian Revolution -- ended up defining his legacy.

In 1990, George H.W. Bush managed the disintegration of the Soviet Union with aplomb and assembled a grand global coalition to confront Saddam Hussein, but was slow to respond to an economic downturn and closed his eyes as the conflict in the Balkans flared. Bill Clinton had finally spurred NATO to act in Bosnia by 1994, but his paralysis as Rwandans hacked each other to pieces haunts him even now -- not to mention a domestic political performance so uneven, and the flop of his historic health care bill so massive, that Republicans won Congress that fall for the first time in 40 years. Most recently, of course, 2002 was the year George W. Bush declared premature victory in Afghanistan and began actively preparing to invade Iraq, legacy-sealing decisions if ever there were ones.

For this president, the crises of Year Two may well come from the same daunting set of issues he faced on inauguration day: a fragile world economy, a failing war in Afghanistan and Pakistan, a recalcitrant Iran, Israeli and Palestinian leaders who can't or won't make peace, a Somalia radiating chaos and lawlessness, an Iraq that may or may not be ready to handle its own security.

But it's just as likely that problems not already on the front page will suddenly blow up to confound Obama. In 2010, among these might be a double-dip recession brought on by high oil prices, a renewed civil war in genocide-plagued Sudan, or perhaps the implosion of Yemen into an al Qaeda haven. Or what about a succession crisis in Egypt, the teetering U.S. ally in the world's most volatile neighborhood, or the collapse of the global trading system, or any number of other blips off the range of presidential radar?

For all the talk of American decline, the world will still be looking to Washington for leadership when these ticking bombs explode. Time to suit up, Barack.

Read on:

  • R.I.P., WTO: Why 2010 could mark the death of the global trade system as we know it. By Paul Blustein
  • After Pharaoh: Hosni Mubarak's death -- or worse, his refusal to give up power -- could throw the largest country in the Arab world into chaos. By Issandr Amrani
  • Welcome to Qaedastan: Yemen's coming explosion will make today's problems look tame. By Gregory Johnsen
  • Africa's New Horror: South Sudan's declaration of independence could thrust the country back into a bloody civil war. By J. Peter Pham
  • Crimea and Punishment: On the eve of Ukraine's presidential election, a resurgent Russia may use the disputed territory of the Crimea to reassert its hegemony over its eastern neighbor. By Anders Åslund
  • A Double Dip: Rising oil prices could drive the global economy into another recession. By Steven Kopits

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

 

DANIEL

3:27 PM ET

January 4, 2010

I think people are really

I think people are really looking for Obama to take action. He still has quite a few campaign promises to fulfill and needs to start addressing issues if he doesn't want to be a one-term "kill a watt" president. Let's hope that he was waiting for his healthcare reform to pass before tacking other issues and will soon switch focus.

 

NOOZONE

4:41 PM ET

January 15, 2010

Item number 7

The collapse of commercial real estate followed by to big to fail bank bailouts round two.

 

ANDREW LOGO

9:19 AM ET

January 17, 2010

Obama isnt a superman

he tries he's best its not easy to make decisions i think. Cheap Worldwide calls . and he handles it quite good! so let him do he's job and support its your presedent!

 

JAKEXD

12:32 PM ET

January 19, 2010

I’m fine with him doing his

I’m fine with him doing his job but he is not all knowing. It is hard to make decisions but that’s what his job is. He needs to listen to his generals and the people of America. This is not his country it’s the peoples and his job is to represent the people. fix rrod

 

TIAN

2:40 PM ET

January 20, 2010

All-Knowingness and Its Nonexistence

Yes, JAKEXD -- he's not all-knowing. None of us are, are we, not even a President?

To his critics, yes, he has made mistakes -- as all Presidents do. I'm talking about mistakes they should have known better than to get trapped by, often mistakes of a political nature, though not invariably.

Some problems Obama inherited, as many Presidents inherit messes. The wars in Afhanistan and Iraq, plus the economic criss, all started on Bush's watch, so those messes Obama inherited directly from Bush. However, problems such as Russia and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict date well before Bush the Younger -- heck, come to think of it, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict got all kicked off on *Truman's* watch! 11 presidents ago!

And as this article rightly points out -- though it really shouldn't be necessary to have to point it out, if people ever paid attention to serious news -- there are all sorts of things that can come up on any President's blind side and bite him (and thus the whole country) right in the a$$. Like 9/11. (To anyone who holds to the theory that Bush planned that, produce evidence, not theories, and I'll be happy to listen. Though I voted for Bush first time out, I sat the 2004 election out, then by 2008 was disillusioned enough that had he been eligible to run for a third term, I would have voted against him. But I refuse to hang 9/11 on the man's neck until and unless someone reputable presents a smoking gun.)

It's like people who claim Obama isn't willing to go the last mile militarily to protect the country. Huh??? You mean the Obama who has TRIPLED our forces in Afghanistan??? The one who has stepped up drone strikes in Afghanistan and Pakistan. (I'm not implying any criticism of Bush here, just knocking down the argument that Obama isn't doing anything.) The Obama who stepped before the global eye after the failed Panty Bomber of Christmas Day and point-blank said "We screwed it up in our intelligence community, but [this is a direct quote, or close to it] the buck stops with me."

Doesn't sound like the limp-wristed, duty-dodging guy those critics must be talking about.

Do I like Obama. Yes, both as a President, and a man.

Do I think he hung the Moon and cannot err?

Nope.

I get my money's worth on my Internet service, in part because I keep the wires lit up with e-mails to the President (and various parts of federal and state government, my senattors and representative, etc.), usually jumping their B*TTS about something or the other. On odd occasion, when one of them has down something particularly well, I'l send along a compliment, just to keep things in perspective.

BTW, FP -- good article.