The End of Magical Climate Thinking

One year ago, America's president said he was going to start a green-energy revolution. Here's why the Obama administration failed -- and what needs to come next.

BY TED NORDHAUS, MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER | JANUARY 13, 2010

Chewed Up

Steven Chu came to Washington expecting to manage a massive expansion of energy R&D. Chu had cut his teeth as a research scientist at the justly famed U.S. government-funded Bell Labs, which he saw as a model because they were responsible for inventing or developing a range of devices now part of the fabric of American life, from fax machines to TV transmission, radio astronomy, solar panel cells, the transistor, calculators, cell phones, Wi-Fi, and hundreds of other technological miracles.

Chu had never bought the idea that, in Al Gore's words, "we have all the technology we need" to solve the climate problem. Instead, he told the New York Times that Nobel-caliber breakthroughs are required in chemistry, physics, and biology to make more efficient batteries, solar panels, and biofuels that can compete with fossil fuels in price, and that nuclear power is needed to displace coal.

Unfortunately, his view hasn't shaped the actions of the administration or Democrats in Congress. By early spring it was clear that Democratic leaders on the House and Senate budget committees were not inclined to honor the president's request for a dramatic scale-up of federal clean energy R&D and that the White House was not inclined to fight for it. And with greens and establishment Democrats fully lost in the magical idea that we can achieve massive emissions reductions through conservation, efficiency, and existing renewable technologies, there was scarcely any constituency inside the Beltway for the kind of big energy-technology program that Chu had hoped to launch.

Incumbent energy interests were happy to indulge the magical thinking by green groups and Democrats, who have been certain since Jimmy Carter's administration that solar and wind are on the verge of becoming economically competitive with coal and oil. And so a deal was cut by green groups, coal utilities, and Reps. Henry Waxman and Ed Markey, who co-authored the legislation. Energy firms could purchase offsets rather than reduce their emissions for a far-off target date. The price of carbon dioxide would hover around $15 per ton -- a far cry from the $70 per ton that Chu suggested would be needed to result in significant deployment of clean energy technologies. And utilities would be given trillions in free pollution credits even while raising energy prices for consumers.

The green giants in Washington -- the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), and the Center for American Progress (CAP) -- claimed that cap and trade would constitute a breakthrough, and Chu dutifully defended the legislation, expecting it would include his $15 billion for R&D.

But Waxman and Markey ended up using virtually all of the money raised from carbon auctions to buy off fossil fuel interests, leaving virtually nothing for technology innovation. Believing that a carbon price -- any carbon price -- would work as a quasi-mystical "price signal" on the market, ushering in a world of solar farms and electric cars, they stiffed Chu.

In the end, Waxman-Markey would give R&D $1.1 billion a year, less than a third of current levels, and would give coal and utility companies $32 billion.

RAVEENDRAN/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS:
 

Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger are authors of Break Through: From the Death of Environmentalism to the Politics of Possibility and founders of the Breakthrough Institute.

F1FAN

11:03 AM ET

January 14, 2010

Or Maybe

Carbon dioxide emissions have nothing to do with climate change.

 

BLUE13326

1:44 PM ET

January 14, 2010

The only way forward is to

The only way forward is to combine energy exploration of fossil fuels with clean energy technological development, and present it as a national security issue. The notion that we should be the only advanced industrial economy that doesn't engage in significant energy exploration, and doesn't consider nuclear power is absurd; only a leftist academic could see such a scheme as reasonable.

This is one of the areas where McCain was much better than Obama.

 

ALEX 77

3:44 PM ET

January 14, 2010

More of the same from S & N...

Schellenberger and Nordhaus' entire raison d'être is to advance the proposition that renewable energy technologies are currently too expensive to meaningfully displace high carbon energy sources. They do not make this claim in good faith, and they are not motivated by mitigating climate change or commercializing renewable energy technologies.

The mission of this argument is to indefinitely delay deployment of existing technologies at scale. Its broad acceptance is critically important to financial beneficiaries of the current high carbon energy paradigm, and they will continue to fund S & N indefinitely in this mission.

The cost of renewable energy will never be low enough, and the cost of fossil fuels will never rise high enough, for them to cease advancing this specious claim. "More research and development!" is a hue and cry that keeps on giving, because it sounds as though it is serious in addressing the energy / climate crises, whereas it is in actuality only an indefinite delaying tactic.

The low costs achieved by fossil energy are due to the massive subsidies these industries receive from taxpayers, as well as their ability to externalize their environmental costs. To make a true cost comparison between various energy types, these factors must be considered, which S & N have and will never do.

It would completely undercut the core of their argument, and give the lie to their conclusions and motivations.

Foreign Policy does its readership a disservice by publishing this piece by Schellenberger and Nordhaus.

 

FREETRADER

9:34 PM ET

January 14, 2010

Nonsense

I don't particularly have a dog in this hunt, but if there is anyone showing bad faith here, it seems to be you. The authors write a fairly straightfoward narrative that makes it obvious that it is the political process that is to blame here, and they - rightly - note that despite all the nice talk, no country, including the US, is willing to pay the price to make renewabe fuels price competitive -- today. I suppose if you think that Stephen Chu is a shill for the coal lobby your view might have some credence, but he was the guy who said $70/ton was the right price, not the $15/ton agreed to by the administration. By what mechanism do you propose to displace coal and oil in the marketplace? Or is your 'good faith' enough to make it happen?

 

MELHARTE

3:11 PM ET

January 16, 2010

Adaptation to Climate Change Impossible, Market Manipulation Key

Freetrader may not have a dog in this, but he also has no sense of history, which shows time and again how civilizations DO NOT adapt to environmental changes -- Easter Island, the Mayan civilization are just microcosms of the catastrophes in store for humanity if we labor under the illusion that we can adapt to far greater environmental perturbations underway than those failed civilizations ever experienced, and yet failed to adapt.

S&N may be accurate in their political analysis but as Alex77 points out, grossly inaccurate in their portrayal of technological hurdles and the expense of clean renewable energy, and hence, the expense of transitioning to clean energy economies globally, whatever their motivations.

So far the legislative process has shown that Cap n Trade, & carbon tax plans can be deformed to suit short-sighted greed of the fossil fuelers. Let's make clean energy cheaper instead, since both Congress and the public prefer carrots to sticks. Simply shift fossil fuel subsidies away from fossil fuel industries (and tax breaks for the rich) and use it to subsidize windfall profit tax breaks on the sale of energy efficient and conservation products, and clean renewable energy and attendant products. Let the market pick the winners, and we all win.

We write about this in our book at www.CoolTheEarth.US

 

MELHARTE

7:17 PM ET

January 16, 2010

addenda to Market Manipulation Key

Clarification: nix the word "windfall". The idea is to redirect fossil fuel subsidies towards subsidizing a program that gives tax breaks on the profits of those successful marketers of products that promote energy efficiency, conservation and the use of clean renewable energy.

 

M WILK

9:18 AM ET

January 15, 2010

Odd that Europeans Use about 1/2 Energy We Do per Capita

While I am all for continuing long term research into new energy, I don't understand the claim that currently available technolgy for reducing energy usage is uneconomic. Why then can Europe and Japan have advanced, prosperous democratic societies and use about 1/2 the energy per person that we do? We continue to waste incredible amounts of energy because we use energy like we are about to discover a new Saudi Arabia within our borders.

 

HSCHMIDT

3:40 PM ET

January 15, 2010

Look at the cost

If you had to pay 8$ for on gallon of gasoline (it is regular price in most EU countries), you would save energy, too. Similar goes for electricity.

But saving ourselves to death has never been any solution. I believe that the mankind is intelligent enough to adapt to the new kind of world climate, whatever it might be a 100 years from now. We have survived all natural catastrophes of which some where far worse than the supposed global warming. I suspect that most 'alarmists' simply underestimate the rest of the humanity. We will find a solution, and it will be totally different from anything that seems logical today. Look at how different the world is compared to what we had just 100 years ago. It is an insult of human intellect to extrapolate our today's views and assume that our great-grandchildren will be only as primitive as we are.

So, global warming or not, it is not worth it to turn our world into one giant gitmo in which our every single step is limited by a backward-oriented energy policy. Why not look forward? This attitude has worked well for millenniums, and I do not see the reason why it should fail us now.

 

CARROL

8:46 PM ET

January 15, 2010

I think that we need clean

I think that we need clean energy revolution. It is one of the most important issues of nowadays. Paper Writers wrote a lot of articles concerning this field. But the problem still exists.

 

OBIE

3:26 PM ET

January 16, 2010

Why Either/Or?

This article is dead-on in some aspects, but the authors are engaging in rather silly either/or posturing. Yes, we certainly need more R&D, but we do also need to send a price signal to more efficiently allocate that R&D. If the goal is to make clean energy economically competitive with fossil fuels, we have two options: we can invest to make clean energy cheaper, and/or we can interfere in the market to promote clean energy at the expense of fossil fuels. We should certainly do the former. As to why we should do the latter, we can point to climate change, or we can also point to the artificial subsidies given to fossil fuels (i.e., much of our military budget), or to the implications of energy dependence. So we should be lowering the price of clean energy through investment, while also raising its price through some market interference.

Now, what sort of market interference? I agree that the cap-and-trade bill is a waste and shouldn't be passed (and whereas I think the healthcare bill is a least-worst-option situation, Nordhaus and Shellenberger make a decent argument that this is a worse-than-the-status-quo bill). But should the crappiness of this one bill doom any attempt to establish a carbon market? I don't think so. I happen to think that the carbon tax is less politically unviable than it's assumed to be, and that we should give it a shot. It would have to be essentially revenue neutral (although some money would need to be plowed back into R&D) so you'd put money back in the payroll tax. The upside of this, politically, is that if a future administration tried to lower the carbon tax they'd have to raise payroll taxes (tough) or increase the deficit (also tough). Legions of economists have demonstrated that the carbon tax is a much more efficient policy than cap-and-trade (Greg Mankiw is the cheerleader of this squad, the Pigou Club).

The final point is that R&D is harder than just pushing a button and making research happen. I haven't read the Chu piece, but when it comes to clean energy, we have so many options, and so many areas that need improvement, that I can't imagine the government is the best provider of funding. Maybe for solving specific problems, but for finding cheap solutions and cost-cutting mechanisms--you want the government to do that? See this Megan McArdle post for why we can't just talk idly about a green Manhattan Project:http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/11/manhattan_no_more.php

 

OBIE

5:20 PM ET

January 16, 2010

edit: oops

This sentence should have read: So we should be lowering the price of clean energy through investment, while also raising its competitors' prices through some market interference.

 

RCTHWEATT

1:05 PM ET

January 17, 2010

Like Obie, I'm a fan of a

Like Obie, I'm a fan of a carbon tax rebated in payroll tax reductions- shown on the pay slips-versus cap and trade. Most Americans realize the long term trend in fuel prices is up, anyway. However, the clear losers-rural states, exurban real estate, long haul trucking, the oil and coal companies-currently probably have the muscle to stop it.
The crucial thing now, therefore, is to enable the scaling of green power generation; once this has happened, green power will be itself a lobby, able to compete for legislators with the oil and coal lobbies; the more so if, like weapons programs, it is spread over as many constituencies as possible.
The way to accomplish this is to guarantee a market for the power- capital will not be a problem; with ordinary due diligence- good management and engineering- investors will make money. We might see a bubble, in fact.
So- do we need years of basic research first? Not if the thermal solar guys are right-''give us the area of New Hampshire in the Southwest and we'll power the country'(if memory serves)-what's at issue are the practical engineering problems which only get solved in scaling, which private companies probably are best equipped to handle.
The R&D needed is in the batteries, to enable this power to displace fossil fuels in transportation as much as possible. Electric delivery trucks were common in the 1920s; why wouldn't updated versions be practical?

 

SHANSON

11:26 AM ET

January 19, 2010

WRI response

The World Resources Institute has responded to this piece: http://www.wri.org/stories/2010/01/response-end-magical-thinking

 

DAVID44

2:42 AM ET

January 20, 2010

The Technology Exists

"We simply do not have low-carbon technologies today that can at large scale replace fossil fuels at a cost that any political economy in the world is willing to impose upon itself." Wrong.

Ironically, the technology to address our energy dilemma has existed since the 1960s. The Molten-Salt Reactor Program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory proved the feasibility of the liquid fluoride thorium reactor (LFTR). First proposed by R.C. Briant of Oak Ridge in 1951, the liquid fluoride reactor was radically different from other reactors that relied on solid fuel and has tremendous safety and performance advantages over solid-fueled reactors, as well as a remarkable versatility in potential fuels. A proof-of-concept fluoride reactor was built and operated in 1954 at Oak Ridge. Dr. Alvin Weinberg, the director of ORNL and the inventor of the solid-fueled light water reactor (LWR), recognized the remarkable potential of the fluoride reactor and was particularly impressed with the ability of the fluoride reactor to safely and efficiently use thorium which unlike uranium, isn't useful in making weapons.

Weinberg was able to win funding for a second fluoride reactor of much-improved design capable of stable, self-controlling operation without control rods, and with strong passive safety features.: the Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE), which was built and operated by ORNL from 1965 to 1969. However, the thorium MSRE and fluoride reactors in general could not fulfill the most important mission of the Atomic Energy Commission in those days: the production of weapons-grade plutonium. The MRSE was abandoned and because of his concerns about the safety of solid fuel reactors which were the politically favored technology, Weinberg, one of the greatest minds in nuclear physics and reactor design, was fired.

Thorium is poised for a renaissance and, in addition to its tremendous potential in LFTRs, it can be used in existing solid fuel reactors without significant modification. Read more here:
http://pubs.acs.org/cen/email/html/8746sci2.html
http://blogs.howstuffworks.com/2009/12/01/how-a-liquid-fluoride-thorium-reactor-lftr-works/
http://www.energyfromthorium.com/forum/index.php