
The end result of Operation Cast Lead, last year's conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, was quite clear. During three weeks of fighting over December 2008 and January 2009, more than 1,300 Palestinians and 13 Israelis were killed and at least 2,500 houses in the strip were demolished. There is an ongoing debate about the number of armed Palestinians killed, but even Hamas does not contest that hundreds of its men died, among them three of the Islamist organization's senior leaders. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) penetrated to the heart of the strip -- the center of Gaza City, where most of Hamas's major compounds are located. The organization's defensive infrastructure, which had been painstakingly built over three years and included hundreds of booby-trapped houses, tunnels, landmines, and smuggled anti-tank rockets, was destroyed.
Hamas fighters had no answer for the IDF's technological and military edge. Their attempts to kidnap Israeli soldiers failed and, though Hamas fired hundreds of rockets into Israeli territory, only a few civilians were killed. More than a year after the fighting, the strip is still under siege by both Israel and Egypt. Most Gazans are forbidden from traveling abroad, while their supply of goods depends primarily on smuggling through tunnels from Egypt.
So how, you might ask, did Hamas mark the first anniversary of this colossal failure? By celebrating, of course. In a number of rallies, Hamas leaders proudly reminded their supporters of the organization's achievements during the conflict. For them, the fact that Hamas had stood its ground against the strongest army in the region and continued shooting rockets until the last day of the war was more than enough to declare victory. Survival was the goal, and it had been achieved.
Such bizarre and dissonant remarks are widely accepted in the Middle East as a part of the regional game. Hezbollah, which had suffered heavy losses in the second Lebanon war against Israel in the summer of 2006, still describes that conflict's outcome as a "Victory from God" (Nassr Min Allah). The Arab media, led by Al Jazeera, repeated this message enthusiastically, despite Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's admission, a few days after the war's conclusion, that he would not have gambled on an attack against Israel had he known that the Israeli reaction would be so severe.
It's not that the leaders of these organizations don't actually know what happened in Lebanon and Gaza. Hezbollah and Hamas fired senior commanders after the wars. But both groups understand that asymmetric conflicts are very different from conventional warfare. In these battles, perception -- even marketing -- is far more important than results. The images that organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas manage to sell to their publics, to their enemy, and to the international community have a far greater effect than actual events on the battlefield.
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