The Next Big Quake?

Haiti's devastating earthquake -- and its horrific human toll -- caught many by surprise. But there are more little-noticed hot seismic hot spots across the globe. Here are five places that geologists worry could be the next big one.

BY ANDREW SWIFT | JANUARY 21, 2010

UNITED STATES, LOWER MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION

Fault Line: New Madrid

Last big quake: 1812

Reasons to worry: A string of earthquakes in the early 19th century along the New Madrid fault -- covering parts of Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi -- caused the Mississippi River to flow backwards, rang church bells in Boston, and affected an area more than three times as large as the famous San Francisco quake of 1906.

Two hundred years ago, the at-risk population was minimal. Today, the major cities of Saint Louis and Memphis lie within the danger zone of arguably the United State's most threatening fault line. FEMA warned in 2008 that a major New Madrid fault earthquake could cause "the highest economic losses due to a natural disaster in the United States," largely due to a relative lack of earthquake preparation compared with California and the Pacific Northwest.

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images; Brendon Thorne/Getty Images; PRAKASH MATHEMA/AFP/Getty Images; JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS:
 

Andrew Swift is an editorial researcher at Foreign Policy. 

MWILSON

5:22 PM ET

January 22, 2010

Symphathy

I really felt bad about what happened to haiti. I hope everyone will recover and will have the support of the government. :-(

http://www.chermside.com/

 

EXPAT229

9:42 AM ET

January 25, 2010

Chile

The 1960 earthquake in Chillán, in central-south Chile, was the largest in recorded history—it actually was a series of quakes that lasted for three days, with the most violent one being a 9.7. I once saw a pie graph that showed all of the seismic energy of the XX century. 26% of that total energy came from just the 1960 Chillán cataclysm.

Earthquakes have been such a fact of life down there that the people have a saying: "There's an earthquake for every decade."

That said, Chile hasn't experienced a Big One since 1985, when two back-to-back quakes of 7.5 and 7.7 hit within five minutes of one another.

Since then, there's been nothing—not even minor tremors.

The places you mentioned are all plausible candidates for a Big One. But if I had to make a bet, I'd bet central Chile—and I'm vetting it will be devastating.

Nothing to do but wait.

 

SKAPLAN40

12:30 PM ET

January 25, 2010

I See a Quake in Your Future. Sometime.

Miller-McCune magazine reviews a new book which takes a lucid look at decades of failed attempts to reach seismology's Holy Grail: the precise prediction of when earthquakes will occur.

Check it out here.

http://miller-mccune.com/science_environment/i-see-a-quake-in-your-future-sometime-1737

 

UKSTORY135

2:19 PM ET

January 25, 2010

Earthquake Predictions Crack Me up

I grew up near the New Madrid fault and I have heard these predictions all of time. My favorite happened about 20 years ago, when I was in elementary school. Some quack predicted a major earthquake, and all of us kids were out of school for a couple of days.

I'm sure that one day these predictions will come true, but my great-grandparents heard the dire earthquake predictions in this area for their entire lives.

 

DENA WOERNER

1:13 AM ET

January 26, 2010

U.S. Earthquakes

I too remember the prediction on the New Madrid fault 20 years ago. They did scare a lot of people, but we didn't get to skip school. It is important to inform people that live in the area of the fault that it is a big possibility that there will be an earthquake in our future. I remember I was shocked when I first heard about this fault line. Many people believe that North American earthquakes only happen in California--not in the middle of the United States. The earthquake of 1812 was significant. These reports and stories are important so that people that live in these areas will be prepared. I lived in Indiana when we felt a 4.2 earthquake that occurred in Illinois. It shook us and woke us up. I can only imagine what a 7.0 earthquake would feel like.

 

EQUITYWOLF

5:52 PM ET

January 25, 2010

YOU ARE MISSING THE BIGGEST!

All day I go around and look at the MASSIVE disaster waiting to happen. I look at brick and brick architecture that goes on forever, in huge labryinth buildings built with no code and cheap morter.

LIma Peru, the fourth largest city in South America.

If the big one hit here at night, all within 30 minute drive, you would have 8,000,000 people flattened in cheap buildings.

Some are so poorly contructed it actually might benefit them, becuase the materials are so light.

 

COMPASSIONFORBOTHSIDES

4:01 PM ET

January 26, 2010

Typo - Re: Turkey

I think there is an error regarding the "1,000 fatalities in the last four decades" number that is written in the same paragraph listing 18,000 fatalities just 11 years ago...

"The 1999 earthquake in Izmit -- located off the Sea of Marmara, and just southeast of Istanbul -- killed nearly 18,000 people. Izmit was the latest in a series of quakes that struck westward across Turkey over the last 70 years. A quake only three months later in Duzce killed close to 900. In the last four decades, Turkey has suffered more than six earthquakes with more than 1,000 fatalities. "

 

DAVID ACAI

5:20 PM ET

January 29, 2010

According to the movie, the quake will hit in 2012

Natural disasters have plagued this planet forever. As we expand the areas we live in, we put more and more people in the path of danger. When entire nations suffer, it is unfortunate. When it happens in places like New Orleans, it is still unfortunate, but it is also stupid.

Hopefully, our buildings will withstand an earthquake better than those in Haiti because the question is not if it is when.