A Failure to Imagine the Worst

The first step toward preventing a nuclear 9/11 is believing it could happen.

BY GRAHAM ALLISON | JANUARY 25, 2010

In his first speech to the U.N. Security Council, U.S. President Barack Obama challenged members to think about the impact of a single nuclear bomb. He said: "Just one nuclear weapon exploded in a city -- be it New York or Moscow, Tokyo or Beijing, London or Paris -- could kill hundreds of thousands of people." The consequences, he noted, would "destabilize our security, our economies, and our very way of life."

Before the Sept. 11, 2001, assault on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, who could have imagined that terrorists would mount an attack on the American homeland that would kill more citizens than Japan did at Pearl Harbor? As then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice testified to the 9/11 Commission: "No one could have imagined them taking a plane, slamming it into the Pentagon ... into the World Trade Center, using planes as missiles." For most Americans, the idea of international terrorists conducting a successful attack on their homeland, killing thousands of citizens, was not just unlikely. It was inconceivable.

As is now evident, assertions about what is "imaginable" or "conceivable," however, are propositions about our minds, not about what is objectively possible.

Prior to 9/11, how unlikely was a megaterrorist attack on the American homeland? In the previous decade, al Qaeda attacks on the World Trade Center in 1993, U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, and the USS Cole in 2000 had together killed almost 250 and injured nearly 6,000. Moreover, the organization was actively training thousands of recruits in camps in Afghanistan for future terrorist operations.

Thinking about risks we face today, we should reflect on the major conclusion of the bipartisan 9/11 Commission established to investigate that catastrophe. The U.S. national security establishment's principal failure prior to Sept. 11, 2001, was, the commission found, a "failure of imagination." Summarized in a single sentence, the question now is: Are we at risk of an equivalent failure to imagine a nuclear 9/11? After the recent attempted terrorist attack on Northwest Airlines Flight 253, this question is more urgent than ever.

The thought that terrorists could successfully explode a nuclear bomb in an American city killing hundreds of thousands of people seems incomprehensible. This essential incredulity is rooted in three deeply ingrained presumptions. First, no one could seriously intend to kill hundreds of thousands of people in a single attack. Second, only states are capable of mass destruction; nonstate actors would be unable to build or use nuclear weapons. Third, terrorists would not be able to deliver a nuclear bomb to an American city. In a nutshell, these presumptions lead to the conclusion: inconceivable.

DOUG KANTER/AFP/Getty Images

 

Graham Allison is Douglas Dillon professor of government and director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.

MIKENYC

7:21 PM ET

January 25, 2010

I'll try to sum it up as best as I can

When there is a will, there is a way.

 

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

9:04 PM ET

January 25, 2010

So let me guess this

So let me guess this straight; because the United States failed to predict September 11, this same country will fail to grasp an attack with biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons?

This whole article- while well written, researched, and certainly credible- argues that the U.S. Government is essentially blinded by its own perception of nuclear terrorism...namely that it will never happen on American soil. If this is the case, then why is Defense Secretary Robert Gates and former CIA Director George Tenet lobbying so hard to change the national security landscape? Secretary Gates is not staying up at night for no good reason...he is staying up because he is genuinely concerned that nuclear terrorism may occur in the near future. Citing Gates' personal view on the nuclear issue, is it not fair to say that the government is actually concentrating on terrorism with a weapon of such deadly magnitude?

Obviously people are right to be worried. No one wants a nuclear explosion in an American city...well besides Al'Qaeda and its proxies. Better to uncover what is not being done than to change after a disaster leaves hundreds of thousands of people dead. But with Obama bin-Laden's repeated desire for a nuclear capability- and with the CIA and DoD's constant attention on nuclear terrorism- it appears like we are beating a dead horse here.

Al'Qaeda's adventures with nuclear technology are chronicled and updated to the letter. And with U.S. troops in Afghanistan and CIA reconnaissance in Pakistan, this intelligence will only get better.

http://www.depetris.wordpress.com

 

SUBVERSIVEMIKE

10:48 PM ET

January 25, 2010

But...

"The thought that terrorists could successfully explode a nuclear bomb in an American city killing hundreds of thousands of people seems incomprehensible."

I have to disagree. Such an attack doesn't seem incomprehensible; it is comprehensible simply because it has never been experienced by a vast majority of Americans. Just as Americans proclaim they cannot imagine the devastation in Port-au-Prince because they haven't survived such an event, so it goes for a nuclear attack. You can’t imagine what you haven’t seen. Documentaries of a mushroom cloud at 15,000 feet or a mock city being leveled by a blast wave do not count.

Is a nuclear attack inevitable? The chances probably grow greater everyday. Which means the political wrangling taking place in Washington over the most inane issues is only doing the American people and ultimately the world a great disservice. The turf wars taking place in the intelligence community need to stop before someone really gets hurt.

So to answer the question posed, “Are we at risk of an equivalent failure to imagine a nuclear 9/11?”

No. We are at risk of a nuclear attack because those who are elected to be our representatives are playing games and the intelligence community has lost sight of the fact they are on the same team.

http://subversivechurch.wordpress.com

 

GRAHAMPOSITIVE

10:43 AM ET

January 26, 2010

Bio trumps Nuclear

I agree with Graham in his assertion that possession of a nuclear weapon must top a terrorist's wish list. Such a weapon is capable of incalculable damage and loss of life, as well as the irreparable damage to the American psyche and collective sense of security. However I cannot stress enough how much more dangerous and how much more of a real threat biological weapons pose.
Briefly, a biological threat is more likely for the following reasons:

nuclear materials are easier to track
nuclear materials are harder to come by
nuclear materials are guarded by states
the technologies needed to engineer and operate a nuclear weapon are closely guarded secrets
nuclear materials or an assembled weapon would be extremely expensive
individuals trafficking in nuclear materials would be identifiable by the components of a nuclear weapon (especially fissile materials)
compared to a biological weapon, a nuclear weapon would be much more difficult to traffic if only due to its size and weight

The opposite of each of these is the case for a biological threat in the form of an engineered virus or other self-replicating microbiological pathogen. Furthermore, a nuclear weapon- no matte the size- has a limited lethal potential. A pathogen does not. Pathogenic weapons have other clear advantages for terrorists acting from third-world countries in that the transportation infrastructure of those countries may inhibit or dampen the spread of such agents, limiting casualties in under-developed nations and enhancing them in Western countries.

Osama bin Laden may want a nuke more than anything else- but the realities of the situation heavily favor a cheap, easy to use and transport biological weapon that has the lethal capacity of an entire nuclear arsenal. As much if not more of the national security resources devoted to nuclear threats should be directed toward mitigating biological threats.

 

VINA H

2:27 AM ET

January 28, 2010

Consider this

With the issue regarding economy are the controversial discussions that politicians making. Perhaps Andre Bauer should start updating his resume. The idea that "poor children are like stray animals" is more than slightly offensive and completely hypocritical – consider this: problem animals are often relocated to give themselves a fresh start. Obviously, the good state of South Carolina deserves some better caliber of leadership, and the Republicans in that state, especially after that whole Mark Sanford and Maria Belen Chapur thing, are obviously WAY behind the 8 ball.