Divide and Conquer

At an upcoming conference in London, the Afghan government will unveil its plan to bring the Taliban rank and file back into the political fold -- and plead for international assistance for its new initiative. 

BY ALIM REMTULLA | JANUARY 26, 2010

Speaking over cups of tea and the sound of gunfire earlier this month, Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai, advisor to the Afghan president on domestic security, walked reporters through details of the government's new strategy to reintegrate the Taliban. The rationale is simple: All but a small sliver of the Taliban's support would disappear if the government provided better security, safety nets, and jobs. Through a combination of economic and security guarantees, explained Stanekzai, the government plans to entice lower and midlevel Taliban fighters to lay down their arms.

The NATO coalition behind Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai has reacted to this new endeavor with cautious optimism. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband have pledged significant international backing; some expect as much as $1 billion to be raised for the program. Yet, as Afghanistan's security continues to deteriorate and a crisis of legitimacy plagues the country's government, Karzai's allies may simply be sighing with relief that something, anything, is being attempted to reverse the country's long slide into chaos.

Reintegration and reconciliation -- known as "R2" to Afghan hands -- is not a novel concept. The strategy of reaching out to the Taliban's more moderate elements has been touted on numerous occasions throughout the eight-year war. Karzai, in particular, has a knack for reintroducing the idea whenever his popularity tumbles in Afghanistan's restive Pashtun south.

However, previous attempts at swaying the Taliban's rank and file have fallen flat, largely due to the inability to separate genuine insurgents from impostors eager to defraud the state. Similarly, preventing supposedly "rehabilitated" fighters from rejoining the insurgency proved equally challenging. These problems were exacerbated by the dwindling credibility of the Afghan government and the eventual withdrawal of financial support for the reintegration programs by its distracted international donors. Past attempts at political reconciliation with senior insurgent leaders -- who were offered amnesty in exchange for laying down their arms, accepting the Afghan Constitution, and recognizing Karzai's leadership -- were quickly scuppered by Afghanistan's non-Pashtun communities and Karzai's Western allies, who abhor a negotiated settlement with those who harbored al Qaeda. Yet this most likely would have made little difference, as Taliban emir Mullah Omar and his inner circle have consistently set the withdrawal of all foreign forces as a precondition to any talks.

Stanekzai insists that this time the result will be different. He understands the daunting challenges facing the new initiative and admits that those hurling grenades and blowing themselves up just outside his office are not the ideal candidates for reintegration. Shouting over explosions, the minister was adamant, however, that "the long-term impact of these programs is to prevent these kinds of incidents from happening."

The United Nations estimates that only 170 Taliban flipped sides late last year, but the Afghan government now hopes that its new initiative will lure a significant number of the estimated 25,000 to 30,000 active Taliban fighters in from the cold.

In exchange for renouncing violence and agreeing to at least tolerate the central government, the authorities in Kabul will provide reformed fighters with pensions, land, and jobs. Moreover, the government promises to work to protect former fighters and their families not only from Taliban retribution but also from various pro-government and anti-Taliban elements that are eager to seek vengeance.

JALIL REZAYEE/AFP/Getty Images

 

Alim Remtulla is a freelance writer based in Kabul, Afghanistan.

SMCI60652

2:32 PM ET

January 27, 2010

Disturbing suppositions

Doesn't this whole reconciliation and repatriation gambit assume that we've been wrong this entire time about the safe-harbor and financial succor that Pakistan and the ISI have been providing to the Afghan Taliban all along?

If those guys are materially supporting the Taliban movement, why would the Taliban flip sides and lay down arms? Just because we're paying them more money?

And if it's true that Pakistan is only paying the Taliban leadership, then haven't we over-estimated the importance of Pakistan for say... oh I don't know... 8 YEARS!

Why have we been putting undue stress on an already volatile ally, thus causing significant upheavel in its domestic politics, if all along they were SUPPOSEDLY funding an ineffectual "20% of the Taliban Insurgency?"

Someone's got some 'splainin to do.