The Chinese Internet Century

Even as U.S. officials still give a rhetorical nod to the ideal of an open and transparent global Web, it's time to plan for another reality.

BY ADAM SEGAL | JANUARY 26, 2010

At the same time as it is consolidating its control over the domestic Web, China is also using its market power to create vulnerability for overseas technology producers. Fearing that they might be shut out of the market, foreign firms give in to demands that they would not consider anywhere else. In 2003, for example, after years of Chinese pressure via negative stories in the press and poor performance in the market, Microsoft agreed to share the source code for Windows with a government-run software lab. In addition, most of the world's IT hardware is manufactured in China, giving intelligence agencies an easy opportunity for inserting spyware at some point along the production chain. Fake chips and routers from China have already showed up in U.S. military and defense contractor systems.

China's cyberaggression doesn't mean that the United States should stop all attempts at engagement. In fact, more should be done to draw Beijing into discussions about the rules of cyberwar. It would be especially good if Beijing could be encouraged into an agreement about what types of hacking -- say, messing with another country's electrical grid -- constitute an act of war. But because China sees itself as the weaker military power, thinks the U.S. military is vulnerable to cyberattacks, and worries about a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, we should expect that both sides will continue to eye each other warily.

In the end, no matter what provisional agreements can be reached, China's behavior suggests that there might be no turning back from a world divided into different types of Internets. The emerging Chinese Internet may be less free, but also distinct in other ways: built on alternate technology standards and populated by proxies such as "patriotic hackers" willing to launch Web attacks in service of state goals. These characteristics could shield the Chinese Internet, giving it greater autonomy from and leverage over the more open, global networks described by Clinton. In the end, the United States might find itself locked in a never-ending process of patching vulnerabilities in a network that will always be susceptible to hacking, espionage, and exploitation.

Although Chinese activities on the Web are grounded in a specific political and economic logic, they are not unique. Iran, Russia, and other authoritarian states have also deployed a mix of technological and political tools to control the flow of information as well as project power across borders. If a strategy built around better defense, multilateral cooperative mechanisms to limit cyberconflict, and efforts to promote American values on the Web fails, we may have to rethink both how we try to influence China and the others, as well as what type of Internet we want.

Frederic J. Brown/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

 SUBJECTS:
 

Adam Segal is the Ira A. Lipman senior fellow for counterterrorism and national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

TOMHE

9:12 PM ET

January 26, 2010

natural course of diffusion

When Internet was created at CERN, it was used to exchange scientific research papers. The scientisits did not expect that the Internet would be dominated by American political values. US companies made a global tool to exchange business information, and they did not expect to export American political values as the prioritized products. The US politicians, who are noramlly a few steps behinds businessmen, have been trying to make a better use of the Internet for political purposes. Of course, you are more privileged than the Chinese politicans to earn more profits from Interent. But you are not morally superior to the rest of politicians in world. The reason is simple: you are still looking after earthy power of influence. My suggestion to you is that: please calm down; let the natural course of diffusion continues in the Internet.

 

PEGDASHFAB

4:37 AM ET

January 27, 2010

the voice of ignorance

as someone who used the internet throughout the decade before CERN "created" it, allow me to point out that tomhe does not know what he is talking about. his argument is founded on total ignorance.

 

TOMHE

6:58 AM ET

January 27, 2010

yes, there were something before that but...

I think it was a US military project. But that project was focused on protocol study for high error rate data links. I was thinking more on the application side.

 

POTATOCHIP

7:52 AM ET

January 27, 2010

Internet and WWW

The Internet was an ARPA project. What you're thinking about is the World Wide Web (WWW) based on the hypertext protocol. That was developed by Tim Berners-Lee at CERN.

 

FREETRADER

12:24 AM ET

January 27, 2010

Not necessarily

There is no contradiction between having an internet that is a relatively open forum (a la Foreign Policy, Slate, etc.) and ensuring that internet users maintain their secure proprietary information. Companies and countries will have to take steps to ensure the security of their secrets, even using closed networks for their most valuable information, but open public discussion can continue. So, it is unlikely that the Chinese restrictions will change the internet outide of China in any substantial way.

In the long run, the position of the PRC government is actually quite weak -- its internet-savvy early adopters will continue to access Google.com outside the Great Firewall, while information disseminated from Hong Kong and possibly Taiwan will weaken the State's control of open discussion from the quasi-inside. Over time, the internal Chinese internet will come to resemble AOL - useful for some purposes, but backward, isolated, and a 'second best' choice. It is not necessary for all of China's internet users to have access open information in order for them to be aware that the alternative internet platforms are much better. Some information may be restricted in the Chinese domestic market for, say, users of Baidu, but the knowledge that Baidu is an inferior choice will prevent the Chinese version of the internet from ever being a real alternative to the West's more open model, even among Chinese speakers. In the long run, this will ensure that Baidu and other restrictive, PRC-focused internet gateways will become ever less cutting edge and relevant.

 

JOSH

3:30 AM ET

January 27, 2010

the internet is for all...

the internet is for all... for all with no bad country. but i don't use self only internet at work, buy only software and games that don't use DRM and with no or a few Bugs. When Chinese will struggle then they can have better life.
so far... Josh