Climate Change
The situation: The prospects for getting a cap-and-trade bill aimed at cutting U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases passed through the Senate this year dropped to almost zero with the election of Scott Brown to fill Ted Kennedy's Massachusetts seat. Sen. John Kerry is trying to pull together a bipartisan compromise bill combining cap and trade with expanded domestic oil drilling. But the Senate is more likely to tack clean-energy measures onto a job-creation package. Regardless, it appears unlikely that President Obama will be able to deliver on the emissions pledges he made at December's Copenhagen summit. Plus, a showdown is brewing with the Environmental Protection Agency, which has threatened to impose its own tight emissions regulations if Congress fails to act.
What he won't say: That stopping climate change is a major concern. In a Pew Research Center poll released this week, the U.S. public ranked global warming last out of 28 priorities for the administration. So while you're likely to hear some talk of "green jobs" and "investments in renewable energy" in the State of the Union address, don't expect to hear the phrase "cap and trade." Obama might have the rhetorical gifts to frame the issue as an appeal to national greatness -- keeping the planet's temperature from rising another 2 degrees Celsius by 2050 is a more practical goal than putting a man on the moon in 10 years -- but with larger administration priorities such as health-care reform also in jeopardy, it's doubtful he'll spend much political capital on it.
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