In what Pyongyang's state media billed as a "military drill," North Korea fired artillery shells near its disputed border with South Korea last Wednesday and Thursday. South Korea responded by firing its Vulcan cannons into the air -- a sign, according to the South Korean press, that Seoul would not give in to intimidation. The incident made global headlines, even though these skirmishes near the Northern Limit Line dividing the countries in the Yellow Sea, which is not recognized as a legitimate border by North Korea, have been ongoing for years. If U.S. President Barack Obama wants to resolve once and for all the situation on the Korean Peninsula, he's going to have to take an unexpected approach to solving the underlying problem: pushing at last for a formal end to the Korean War.
North Korea has made its position clear: It wants a treaty to supplant the nearly 57-year-old armistice agreement that ended the war. North Korean officials, of course, have floated the idea before, only to be turned down flat by previous U.S. administrations. But no moment has ever been so auspicious for a treaty. Signing one now, politically difficult as it could be for Obama, could also be the smartest way to end the standoff in northeast Asia and resolve the North Korean nuclear issue for good.
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A peace treaty with North Korea would need to be based on a quid pro quo: North Korea's denuclearization in exchange for the accord. The United States, North and South Korea, and China would sign the treaty immediately, but it would not become permanent until Pyongyang denuclearized within a reasonable time -- say, 12 months. If Pyongyang failed to denuclearize, the treaty would become void. It is in Pyongyang's short- and long-term interests to make certain that a conditional peace treaty becomes permanent.
Of course, any treaty with official "axis of evil" leader Kim Jong Il, as former U.S. President George W. Bush dubbed North Korea, will be a tricky feat to pull off given conservative opposition in the United States, as well as among U.S. allies in Asia. Critics of the notion contend that North Korea neither intends to forsake its nuclear weapons capabilities nor its nuclear weapons, regardless of any agreements it signs. Rather, they say, Pyongyang is committed to achieving international recognition as a nuclear weapons state.
But the evidence tells a much different story. Although the six-party nuclear talks have certainly not been problem-free, they have achieved some limited successes -- sometimes because of bilateral discussions between Washington and Pyongyang. In the joint statement that came out of the September 2005 six-party talks, Pyongyang committed North Korea to denuclearization. Besides disabling a sizable amount of its nuclear weapons capabilities, Pyongyang submitted its nuclear declaration, as required, to Beijing in June 2008 and shortly thereafter blew up its cooling tower at its Yongbyon nuclear facility. By July 2008, Pyongyang had disabled about 80 percent of North Korea's nuclear weapons capabilities at Yongbyon, though this progress was subsequently reversed following a verification dispute with Washington.
Still, North Korean representatives have stated on more than one occasion -- including to this author in Pyongyang in January 2009 -- that North Korea would have no need for nuclear weapons if the United States did not maintain a hostile policy toward their country. When U.S. envoy Stephen Bosworth, who is leading U.S. efforts at engagement with North Korea, visited Pyongyang in December, North Korean officials reaffirmed their commitment to the 2005 joint statement on denuclearization. A joint editorial published on New Year's Day by North Korea's three major state-controlled newspapers speaks of Pyongyang's desire to create "a lasting peace system on the Korean Peninsula and make it nuclear-free through dialogue and negotiations." And just last week, Pyongyang again stated that its goal is to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.
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