Dubai may be possibly the closest thing to being in Iran itself. In five days here I've met with nearly three dozen Iranians from different walks of life to try to get a better impression of what's happening inside the country.
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Part of the United Arab Emirates, Dubai is the city-state that until recently glittered as the Middle East's pre-eminent financial center and served as a mecca for European sunbirds desperate for a warm break from bleak northern winters. The economy has ground to a standstill, Dubai having proven no more resistant to the global recession than anyplace else. The sun still blazes, of course -- a toasty 80-plus degrees Fahrenheit most January afternoons. The Disney-style hotels, skyscrapers, and over-the-top shopping malls -- one of them boasts an indoor ski slope -- reminds one of Las Vegas. And no matter where you go, Dubai retains a strong, distinctly Iranian flavor.
Estimates put the size of the Iranian expat community at 400,000, nearly a third of a 1.3 million population. Iranians work everywhere in Dubai: in the financial sector and in the construction, transportation, and hospitality industries. Daily flights connect Tehran and Dubai (it's an hour and 40 minutes flying time), with 200 weekly flights between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, most of them to Dubai. According to Iran's Consulate, a million Iranians pass through Dubai each year. Some come for business. Regime members and well-heeled loyalists are said to maintain luxurious weekend homes here. Young people come to let their hair down, the women literally. Roughly 60 percent of Iran's population is under 30. Not surprisingly, Dubai's bling offers a seductive break from the dreary and increasingly repressive life afforded under the Islamic Republic.
What do the Iranians I've met think about current developments in their country? The first part of the answer is easy. Those I've met here loathe and despise the regime. I couldn't find an exception. A mother visiting from Isfahan and her daughter who now resides here recounted for me how the two quarreled last summer before the June 12 election. In the face of her daughter's objections, the mother had contemplated casting her vote for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but not because she favors the current Iranian president. On the contrary. Her reasoning was: Vote for the thug; the situation has to become worse before it can become better.
By all accounts, the regime has made two big mistakes. First, there was the fraud -- or at least the widespread presumption of mass fraud -- in June's election. The regime's steadfast refusal to deal with public concern quickly led to public outrage. I've heard, time and again here, that the regime's brazen lying is an "insult," an unforgivable "humiliation." Second, the viciousness with which the regime has cracked down on dissent has shocked people, including those who thought they could no longer be shocked.
The Iranians I've met include a retired high school teacher, a musician, an engineer, several business executives, journalists, students, a lawyer, a dissident cleric, representatives from the travel and entertainment industries, two activists in the opposition "green movement," a church pastor, and an architect. In virtually every conversation I've had, the given is that Iran is ruled by lunatics. That's the simple part.
The other pieces of a rather complicated mosaic then start to fall into place. A young miniskirt-clad woman from Tehran tells me her grandmother, a deeply religious woman, fears for the end of the regime. As violent and corrupt as it is, she reasons, what comes after might not be Islamic, and that could be only worse. Parts of Iran remain religious, traditional, and conservative. How strong are these segments of Iranian society today? How would they respond to an attempt to transform Iranian theocracy to a Western-style democracy, if that is indeed what happens? It's not surprising that so many of the Iranians I've spoken to -- educated, professional, largely from urban centers -- concede they're concerned by the prospect of another bloody revolution or a post-clerical moment that could lead to civil war. As one young businessman told me, it's one thing to reject the regime, but no one wants Iran to look like Lebanon. Cooperation between moderate secularists and religious Iranians is important now and will be crucial once the current regime eventually expires.
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