Indian Motion

From New Delhi's perspective, the "AfPak" debate is all about the "Pak."

BY KAPIL KOMIREDDI | FEBRUARY 4, 2010

There was a lone dissenter at last week's Afghanistan conference in London: India.

As representatives from more than 60 countries convened at the historic Lancaster House, New Delhi's representative to the summit, Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna, emphasized to his British counterpart that it would be a monumental folly, at this juncture, to make a distinction "between a good Taliban and a bad Taliban" or to legitimize the former through reaching out. From India's perspective, because the Taliban was originally an extension of Pakistan's intelligence agency and because it has been used by Islamabad to mount attacks against India, there can be no "good Taliban."

But Krishna, seated in the second row, was politely ignored. Alas, it wasn't the first time.

The contours of the Afghanistan debate as it plays out in Washington, London, and Islamabad are well known. But India arguably has just as much at stake as the Western countries -- if not more. New Delhi is worried that legitimizing elements of the Taliban may increase India's vulnerability to terrorist attack. While the world discusses security strategies for Afghanistan, India focuses on how these proposals will impact its relationship with Pakistan. For New Delhi, the "AfPak" debate is really just about "Pak."

Thus far, India's policy toward Pakistan has been hands-off, leaving it to the paymasters in Washington and London. In the immediate aftermath of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, New Delhi even acceded to Washington's requests and took no action against Islamabad in order to facilitate the war in Afghanistan.

But now that dynamic is changing. As control of Afghanistan is being gradually handed back to the Taliban, an increasingly alarmed New Delhi will start looking for ways to prevent trouble. Although deployment of troops has been categorically ruled out by Defense Minister A.K. Antony, pressure will probably mount on the government to reconsider that decision. New Delhi will actively work to resuscitate remnants of the Northern Alliance, India's longstanding allies against the Taliban. Most immediately, India will apply pressure on Pakistan, demanding that Islamabad act against the plotters of the Mumbai attacks. While New Delhi's recent offer to resume diplomatic talks with Pakistan is a positive sign, should another terrorist attack take place, India will not be as patient as it was last time.

Noah Seelam/GETTY IMAGES

 SUBJECTS: SOUTH ASIA
 

Kapil Komireddi is a writer in India.

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FARHANSK

1:41 AM ET

February 6, 2010

Baseless Propaganda

I wonder since when FP became a propaganda outlet for Indian Foreign Ministry. India is not physically connected to Afghanistan. It does not have a porous border with Afghanistan. It does not share ethnic population with Afghanistan. It has not held 3million Afghan refugees. There is a lot of difference. Pakistan need to be listened in this imbroglio because we are directly affected. Now if we say that we want to train Bhutan's army, will India Allow this? Come on Mr Kapil, Be rational

 

LAHORIJERRY

7:15 AM ET

February 6, 2010

well said!!

well said!!

 

ANURAGRAI134

8:29 AM ET

February 6, 2010

Reality

India doesn't share border with Afghanistan but guess who is in between. Pakistan. And it is such a friendly country that it wont allow the Talibani suicide bombers to come to Kashmir. So India shouldn't worry about Afghanistan. Am I right farhansk?
And as you say Pakistan needs to be listened to. I think thats right too. They should ask for lot of funds to fight Taliban. Obviously it wont fund terrorists, it has never done so. right?
Sorry I didnt get your Bhutan example.

 

TYRTAIOS

11:02 PM ET

February 6, 2010

Not so Baseless - maybe?

The point is: good Taliban - bad Taliban FARHANSK. I fully understand Islamabad's concerns, afterall, just like in America, all politics is local. However, you know very well Pakistan occupies about a 1/3 of Kashmir (and claims the rest), and the proxies they've used there against India. Under the assumption that most reports now indicate the Taliban in Pakistan, and such terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba are connected to Qaeda, I think Delhi makes a valid point.

 

DAMONENOLA

12:30 PM ET

February 8, 2010

Anyone who read Barbara Crosette's Anti-India article

on Foreign Policy a month ago knows that FP is NOT a propaganda outlet for India.

 

YK

5:54 AM ET

February 6, 2010

Wow has FP received a

Wow has FP received a donation from Indian Foreign Office, because there can be no other explanation for publishing this blatantly biased article

 

TOM G

9:17 AM ET

February 6, 2010

Why

Why do the Indians or Pakistani interests matter surely the Afghans should be the priority now don't get me wrong both have valid reasons for which to care about Afghanistan but at the end of the day a strong self determining Afghanistan should be the priority as they have had 30 years of conflict and the sooner they can manage their own problem that Pakistan/India tension might begin to be defused and lets not remember who in the region has the most to gain from the dividing tactics being deployed against those countries=CHINA without a rival wouldn't be good for all in Asia

 

CMDUNN1972

1:15 PM ET

February 6, 2010

Because ending the conflict

Because ending the conflict in Afghanistan depends on securing Kabul, and securing Kabul depends on weakening the Taliban in Afghanistan. As the Taliban in Afghanistan is closely tied with both al Qaeda (who have in there fluid ways shifted their base of operations to Pakistan via a porous border) and the Pakistani Taliban, this becomes not a national conflict, but a regional one.

Complicating matters and affecting stability in the region is the Indo-Pak war over Kashmir. It's it's 60-ish years since the partitioning, India has fought 3 wars against Pakistan, so relations are at best strained.

You are right to note that focus should be primarily in stabilizing Afghanistan, but Afghanistan is not an insular problem. Far from it, and its stability requires stability in the entire region.

On a side note, I do believe that the heroin trade problem on the Iranian border of Afghanistan was a major oversight by the author. The damaging affect of an increasing drug problem on the population during a conflict when the objective is winning hearts and minds should also be addressed in any holistic discussion of Afghanistan.

 

FARHANSK

2:18 PM ET

February 6, 2010

AURANGRAI34

I meant that Pakistan is not physically connected with Bhutan while India is. Now If Pakistan offers Bhutan govt to place its armed forces in Bhutan for training purposes. What will India get from it? A pincer movement. (Indian Army has a permanent training mission in Bhutan).

India can invest in Afghanistan, It can reconstruct or have trade or anything it feels like in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is a sovereign country but basing Indian Army in Afghanistan even for training ANA will be resisted by Pakistan. It threatens Pakistan's security interests in the region.

If Pakistan is listened properly, i am sure Taliban can be contained and defeated. I don't think after so many casualties, there is any friendship left between Pakistan and Taliban. So Indians should not worry on this count. We stopped supporting Kashmiri struggle as per promise and now India is able to pull out complete divisions from Kashmir. Is that not a proof of our sincerity?

 

ANURAGRAI134

1:46 AM ET

February 7, 2010

FARHANSK

Although the Bhutan analogy is absurd yet if Pakistan and Bhutan agree for such a scheme, India shouldn't have a problem.
Coming to the military involvement, I agree that it was not necessary at a point. But now when ISI, the Hakkani group are bombing Indian embassies and targeting the Indians involved in rebuilding Afghanistan, dont you think it will be difficult to keep out for long.
Again to give Indian side of the opinion on Kashmir; Its a general feeling that Pakistan stopped intervention in Kashmir because it was facing Taliban uprising (Taliban were just 100kms from Islamabad if I remember correctly) and as the situation improves Pakistan will again use terrorism as part of its Kashmir policy. Also the terrorist activities in Kashmir have gone down but one cant say the same for whole of India eg Mumbai.
A really nice gesture of sincerity from Pakistan would be to arrest Hafiz Saeed and speed up the trial of those involved in Mumbai terror attacks. But still no signs.

 

DAMONENOLA

12:36 PM ET

February 8, 2010

Why Bhutan is absurd

When Bhutan decides to house an international terrorist that attacked Pakistan or any other country, then the analogy is apt. Until then, the author's use of Bhutan is a misdirection.

BTW, Afghanistan is FAR from a sovereign nation in reality. Is it any wonder that Karzai's nickname is the apt "Mayor of Kabul"? ?You tell me of any entity that has been able to successfully control of all of Afghanistan?

 

SMCI60652

3:12 PM ET

February 6, 2010

Countries don't...

just pour billions of dollars in infrastructural investment into another nation without expecting something in return.

So it's logical to ask... what does India want in return from the Afghans?

If we're being completely honest and unbiased, we all know what India wants.

 

BCR004

3:55 PM ET

February 6, 2010

AfPak- India

What India wants is simple: denying Pakistan the so called strategic depth and that Afghanistan should not become a haven for anti-India terrorists. Unlike you, India has no dream of ruling over Kabul. Had it not being for the 'visionaries' in GHQ Pindi dreaming of a subservient Afghanistan, India probably wouldn't have got so involved there.

 

SMCI60652

7:50 PM ET

February 6, 2010

chicken-egg

Exactly how many terrorists trained in Afghanistan have attacked India? EVER?

Pakistan is a big enough country, it doesn't need Afghan territory to sponsor terrorism. LeT or any of the score of Kashmiri terrorists that have murdered innocent Indians never trained in, nor did they come from, Afghanistan.

And what came first, the Pakistani 'strategic depth' outlook? Or the Indian threat necessitating such an outlook in the first place? Who knows? I'm with most of the commentators here. I think it's mostly mutual paranoia rather than any REAL threat.

So be that as it may, I'd hope the recently announced summit yields negotiations parallel to those that just took place in London. The proxies need to negotiate a mutually acceptable arrangement, as do the puppet masters.

 

NPEGASUS

6:45 PM ET

February 8, 2010

Living in Denial?

To give you one example, the Indian Airlines plane hijacking in 1999 in Kandahar is a good example of how Afghan territory was used against India. Many in Rawalpindi will disagree that Pakistan does not need strategic depth in Afghanistan; because, 'strategic depth' was first coined by Pak army in the 1980's and Afghanistan was made the scapegoat. Needless to say, the Taliban govt in Afghanistan was influenced from Rawalpindi for a decade after the Soviets withdrew.

The cross-border terrorists in Kashmir trying to wage jihad, ironically, are less likely to be Kashmiris. Instead they turn out to be Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Pakistani Punjabis, Arabs etc. This furthers the need for India to make sure its borders are safe from the threat that emanates from the Af-Pak region.

 

NPEGASUS

6:59 PM ET

February 8, 2010

Paranoia?

Why India is pouring money in Afghanistan? Because India prefers not to have terrorist camps, an opium economy and gun running culture in Afghanistan. I believe that is what many Afghans want for themselves in their country. India also want to increase trade and commerce in that region and desires to keep its borders safe.

Sadly, nothing of the above has ever figured in the minds of policy makers sitting in Rawalpindi. Paranoia perhaps? Islamabad insists to have a govt of its liking in Kabul which it can control remotely. Fair enough! But, so far, Pakistan, unlike India, has never built roads, hospitals, schools, power stations or trained Afghan doctors, teachers, nurses, bureaucrats, police etc in Afghanistan. Quite a display of neighborly relations and Islamic brotherhood, I'd say. No wonder, the recent poll suggest an approval rating of India among Afghans as high as 72% as opposed to a mere 2% for Pakistan.

 

SMCI60652

12:05 PM ET

February 9, 2010

On paranoia and the tragedy of power politics

How has Afghanistan's opium or gun-running impacted India? And safe borders are all fine and dandy, but India doesn't have any border with Afghanistan.

It makes complete sense, the constructive approach that India has taken with its Afghan neighbors. That's commendable. But let's not be naive here. Short of India placing troops in Afghanistan, which would be a COMPLETE regional nightmare, building highly publicized pet projects was the only other viable option to cajole Afghans away from a Pakistan leaning outlook.

Of course that's the worry in Pakistan. Not that you're building fruitful ties with Afghans, but that you're softening them up for eventual military relations and arms sales. All after spreading the "Pakistan is the root cause of all your ills" narrative through sweet-talk.

But no one of the Pro Pakistan side asks the simple question: what else is India supposed to do? Do we honestly expect them to sit out completely while the major defining conflict of this decade and the next are being played out in its back yard? No matter what India did, aside from sitting out, the Pakistanis would have an objection to.

 

NPEGASUS

4:57 PM ET

February 9, 2010

Pakistan stuck in 20th century

Your argument is anachronistic and redundant to put it mildly. Terrorism follows no boundaries. The jihadis fighting NATO forces in Afghanistan also kill civilians and soldiers in India, especially near India's borders. They thrive in a gun running culture and in an opium economy. In such circumstances, it does not matter if India - or the US or the UK - shares borders with Afghanistan or not.

Afghans have a negative perception of Pakistan which is based on their experience; dating back before India restored its ties with them after fallout of Taliban in Kabul. Perhaps, Pakistan, particularly its military, should introspect instead of pointing fingers. Afghanistan is also part of SAFTA - the free trade block of the countries in the region. India, clearly, has stake in the trade, security and development of Afghanistan; like it has with Sri Lanka or Maldives among others. India's role in Afghanistan in the coming years may change but it's unlikely that it will just sit out and watch from the sidelines. Pakistan should ally with India instead of blocking it.

 

MO283

4:58 PM ET

February 6, 2010

The Solution

Things are very complicated and complex in the region I believe we should not keep thinking about the mistakes done in the past by US or Pakistan but instead should look forward to kill and eliminate these militants from the region.
I would further like to state that the world must emphasise on the mutual understanding and efforts of all the stakeholders including US, Nato, Afgnistan, Pakistan and India, otherwise it is impossible to win the war against terrorists in afganistan.The issues between India and Pakistan must be resolved either in the favour of India or Pakistan but they must be resolved iat all cost if we want peace in the region and in the world because these issues are directly or indirectly linked with militancy in the region and in the world and al qaeda, talabans and other militant groups are taking advantage of it.
Especially Afghanistan and Pakistan are so interconnected that though they are two different countries but in practical they are one country geographically and historically. There is no visa or international border between them. We cannot deal problems in one country without the help of other as you know the bombing and killings in Pakistan cannot be stopped unless their is peace in Afghanistan and vice versa.

 

AHSON HASAN

5:06 PM ET

February 6, 2010

Indian Motion

I'm not sure if this entire Afghanistan, Taliban 'appeasement' exercise should be used to harass India or highlight the somewhat fallacious and frivolous 'importance' Pakistan.

The focus of attention for any parleys, negotiation or summit should be to help the Afghan people out in their time of utterly urgent need to stabilize their nation.

In any event, the US knows and understands that Islamabad and the Pakistani military leadership cannot be trusted in the true sense of the word. By the same token, unfortunately though, Washington has few options to work with. They have to rely on the Pakistanis, live with their blemishes, believe their half truths, and, say the ‘politically correct; things at the all times.

Whereas Pakistan is an integral role player in Afghanistan (in a truly negative way), India's part in this activity cannot be denied. India, like Afghanistan, has been and continues to be impacted by Pakistan's heinous designs to promote fundamentalism over the past at least three decades.

The direction of any future dialogue on Afghanistan should include India. Too much focus on Pakistan will only screw up any possible chances of establishing stability.

India, on the other hand, has an age-old tradition of democracy and can teach the Afghans a thing or two about democratic norms and principles. Don't expect this from the Pakistanis though - they don't know nothing about peace and tolerance!

I apologize to my fellow Pakistan-sympathetic bloggers but folks, lets face it, the reality is that Pakistan is friendless, clueless, listless, powerless and helpless today because of its own follies. The scourge of terrorism is one of its own making and it ain't going away anytime soon. In fact, it is eating up the roots of the body-politic and we don't even know if Pakistan will be in existence, say, after another 5 years or so.

India has a lot to offer - entertainment, technology, democracy, diversity - all beautiful virtues of a strong nation that has the capability of surviving the long haul gut.

One last word about the ‘good’ Taliban and the ‘bad’ Taliban. I simply don’t get it. Are we trying to negotiate with religious fanatics? Who are the good Taliban?

For all I know, all religious crazies are untrustworthy and highly undesirable wretched of the earth types who should either change their respective ways or perish in thin air.

Before we embark upon any such ambitious plan, please do remember that back in the mid-1990s, we didn’t pay much attention to these juggernauts. Little did we realize that, with time, they were going to turn into the worst enemies of humanity.

Long story short, keep the Pakistanis at a safe distance in Afghanistan and don’t try to give an inch of breathing space to the religious fanatics.

 

NOJIZYATAX

5:28 PM ET

February 6, 2010

India's bad neighbor

With a slogan like, "Faith, piety & Jihad in the name of Allah", the whole Pakistani army appears to be a bad actor. India should remember that the roots of their problems with Pakistan are religious. As long as an imam can preach hatred for the "polytheists" from the mosque each Friday, no one in India who isn't a Muslim will ever be safe. India would be a world "superpower" if it weren't for the constant drain of Islam and Muslim violence on the society.

 

CIA SPARROW

5:44 PM ET

February 7, 2010

Coincidentally, there are

Coincidentally, there are more people in India than anywhere in the world, bar China. In that sense, India has more people doing XYZ than any other place. Choose XYZ freely.

The thing to note here, is that the figures are available, and for the most part accurate. There is something to be said about that. Most statisticians prefer to discount statistics from non-democratic nations because the real figures are kept confidential in those administrations.

Also, Khalid, why the negative attitude? Your life, your employment prospects, your business prospects would be so much better if Indians and Pakistanis figured out that they are being played against each other, and spent time and effort on trade and building business ties instead of war. The hatred, my friend, is in a large part manufactured. It serves the general population of neither side.

I can tell you that prior to 26/11 the general attitude in India towards Pakistanis was: okay we have problems, but we can work this out.

 

DIRECT_HEX

7:41 PM ET

February 6, 2010

Nationalism - don't you love it

Actually it's a shocking bit of two bit nationalism from the author.

The again so are the responses on here.

Pakistani posters - Pakistan has a major problem with insurgents, partly created by the clever people in the ISI who lost control of the their pet and good old Suadi money (funny how that gets around) You need to deal with that reality.

Pakistan in now the biggest target of the insurgency and trying to separate good/bad Taliban is not really going to work. The whole root and branch political structure needs to change and until you break the power of the feudals it isn't going to happen.

Indian posters - here's a reality check. There are Millions of Afghan refugees from two wars in pakistan, the north of pakistan is Pashtun, There are language and cultural ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan. You don't have them in that strength. Trying to meddle with Afghan politics is going to a) make an already paranoid PakMil very very upset and b) cause agitation amongst the massive Pashtun population.

Ohh and Indian posters , Pakistan suffers a bombing a week , maybe two bombings a week, It has also had THREE Mumbai style attacks since Mumbai itself. how about actually giving them a break and understanding how much they are suffering as well.

And one more for Indian posters - solve Kashmir, get that 50 years old problem somewhere near resolution and you won't have a cause celebre for the Jihadis to worry about.

 

SMCI60652

7:53 PM ET

February 6, 2010

here here

here here

 

DESIBEL

2:09 AM ET

February 7, 2010

Nationalism indeed

"Ohh and Indian posters , Pakistan suffers a bombing a week , maybe two bombings a week, It has also had THREE Mumbai style attacks since Mumbai itself. how about actually giving them a break and understanding how much they are suffering as well."

Your people, your internal problem. Other nations can only address bilateral/international problems with Pakistan.

"And one more for Indian posters - solve Kashmir, get that 50 years old problem somewhere near resolution and you won't have a cause celebre for the Jihadis to worry about."

solve Pakistan's "Kashmir runs in our blood" obsession , get that 60 years old problem somewhere near resolution and you won't have a cause celebre for the Jihadis AND the very imposing Indian Military to worry about.

 

CIA SPARROW

6:01 PM ET

February 7, 2010

if it were that simple..

Direct_Hex,

When you say:

"And one more for Indian posters - solve Kashmir, get that 50 years old problem somewhere near resolution and you won't have a cause celebre for the Jihadis to worry about."

this is akin to asking physicists at Los Alemos to get with the program and solve that 60 year old cold fusion problem, and that would solve all of America's oil dependency problems.

Easier said than done, my friend. The region you speak of is strategically impossible to give up from the Indian side. It will be suicidal from a military perspective. From the Pakistani side it is for all practical purposes a source of fuel to the blare the sirens of war when the need arises, and thereby keep the military in power, nothing more nothing less.

 

DAMONENOLA

12:43 PM ET

February 8, 2010

If Pakistan suffers a bombing a week

it is because it is in a struggle between those who either want democracy or want to maintain secular power through an iron fist and those religious extremists that seek to create the chaos. The ISI and the army are also split along those lines. In other words, no surprise that Pakistan is in the mess that it is in. The question is, why support (i.e. prop) Pakistan at the expense of other, more friendly and stable nations?

 

DIRECT_HEX

7:47 PM ET

February 10, 2010

It's only strategically important because you make it so

If people sat down and talked about it it might be different. You have nukes, no one in their right mind is ever going to threaten India. Nukes should be an excuse to de-militarise not the other way round.

 

DIRECT_HEX

7:47 PM ET

February 10, 2010

It's only strategically important because you make it so

If people sat down and talked about it it might be different. You have nukes, no one in their right mind is ever going to threaten India. Nukes should be an excuse to de-militarise not the other way round.

 

DIRECT_HEX

5:29 AM ET

February 7, 2010

Cognitive Dissonance

i love the way you assume that because I criticised Indian posters I am Pakistani - while convenient ignoring my criticism of Pakistani posters too. How wonderfully myopic of you.

Read the first part of my reply please.

As to your response. Why does it have to be Pakistan's problem to solve and not yours?

SO , let me get this right - first you argue "Your internal problem" and the you say Pakistan needs to solve it's obsession. That would be great big case of cognitive dissonance or put simply a very large contradiction in the same posting.

Then here's an answer for both halves of your contradiction:

Part One: Solve Kashmir because having to fight an insurgency for 60 more years is never going to the good for the INTERNAL dynamics of a country. Abusing a local population and denying them their rights destroys any legitimacy for claims of democractic government. Hold the plebiscite you've been denying them. If they decide to be par of India - there goes the major plank for Jihadi ideology.

Part Two:Solve Kashmir because it is an obsession with every politician in Pakistan and will take away the main reason for PakMil to be paranoid. That way they can start dealing with the issues that they hide under the Kashmir cloud. Think about it, a Pakistani PM would be able to reign in an army that has just lost its reason to keep so many men under arms.

Hope that opens up your horizons a bit.

 

NPEGASUS

8:07 PM ET

February 8, 2010

Is that so?

Direct_Hex,

I see that you've figured it all out in two steps. Have you considered replacing Mr. Holbrooke and saving the region and the world? Perhaps you should.

In my humble view, however, I'd like to disagree with your analysis. Kashmir is the symptom not the problem in the region. We've seen how the argument of the 'root-cause theory' has fallen flat on the face in Afghanistan after the Soviets withdrew. Kashmir is no different. If Kashmir is miraculously solved, I assure, the military-jihadi complex in Pakistan will raise some new source of discontent to keep itself in business.

I'd also like to add that the Kashmir problem has three components - India, Pakistan and Kashmiris. Turns out it takes more than one hand to wreck a tripartite agreement and India is not the spoiler. Far from it. In the absence of unified political voice in Kashmir and the musical chair played out between the govt and the military in Pakistan, India has no stable partners who can walk the talk. Consequently, Kashmir stands where it is for six decades.

 

SREEKANTH

10:39 AM ET

February 7, 2010

Direct Hex and others, I'll

Direct Hex and others, I'll try to be as objective as I can, and you can read whatever pre-existing biases I might have into my name.

Borders in South Asia are a mess, because each group can claim that they were forced to accept unfair borders during colonialism. This is not much different from other countries in other parts of the world that were carved out of imploding empires, like Georgia w.r.t. the former USSR, etc. So the Chinese don't accept the McMahon line on India's northeast, Afghanistan doesn't accept the Durand line between itself and Pakistan, etc.

The hurried departure of the British in 1947 added to the chaos. Various loose ends were left behind, such as Kashmir. Less well-known loose ends were the Portuguese territory of Goa. Also less well known is that Baluchistan to this day doesn't accept the circumstances of its accession to Pakistan, and there is a smoldering insurgency.

Separate and different from all this, it would be good to save all the energy and friction involved in the Kashmir issue, just as with other border disputes. But doing so now would be like yielding to pressure, and sends exactly the wrong message.

The post-partition history of Pakistan is that the military and a small group of landowners, bureaucrats and industrialists set up an interlocking system of nepotism. Classical Fascism 101, except with Islam as the glue, rather than Christianity. The external enemy was India, and the ruling classes encouraged a mixture of religious and racial hatred, contrasting the "martial" Pathans and Punjabis with the cowardly banias.

Well, things rattled along, with the Pak army mostly distinguishing itself in action against its own civilians, until the aftermath of the Soviet collapse tempted Pak into trying the same asymmetric warfare strategy in Kashmir. I don't know much about what the average Kashmiri person feels about being part of India / Pak / being independent, but there was a de-facto partition anyway, with some portion held by Pak and some by India. If left to themselves, things might have sorted themselves out, but starting in the 90's, terrorism kept the pot boiling.

Fast forward to the fatal over-reach of global Islamic terrorism on 9/11. By an interesting coincidence, UBL's reported hope that the west would over-react and discredit itself proved to be true in reverse. AQI's habit of mostly killing Muslims in Iraq completely discredited them. Similarly in Pak, the alphabet soup of jihadist groups have begun to turn on the state. So on the whole, I think a turning point has been reached.

The Kashmir issue has never been a stand-alone one. It has been proxy for the specialness of Islam / Punjabis and Pathans in the pre-jihad days. Now it is a proxy for global Islamism, mentioned in the same breath as Palestine, Chechnya, Andalus, the whole irredentist caliphate dream. "Solving" the Kashmir problem, hard as it is, will not do anything to alter the dynamics of Islamic terrorism.

 

DIRECT_HEX

8:40 AM ET

February 8, 2010

Solving Kashmir removes a poison

There are situation you can control as a political elite, there are situation you can't. The trick is to know when to deal with something and when not to.

The fact that Brits managed to screw up the world due to their imaginative border drawing is some thing that we are all aware of and all suffer from and it should not be an excuse for the Paksitanis to complain about the current state of their own irredentist nutters and the same goes for the Indian elite.

Kashmir is a solvable issue. Just like Northern Ireland finally became one when the British realised they had to talk their way out of it and the Irish decided that they want to do the same. As soon as that point was reached the two sides had to come round to the table and make a concession. You now have the point where senior Sinn Fien members are condemning the killing of police officers because they are invested in the idea of peace. The majority of people that would have supported a violent struggle have turned away from it.

This means that these issue don't go away, they fester and eventually they poison the whole body politic, as Israel and Palestine keep proving every decade. It may take extreme amounts of political bravery but it must be done.

For India, its going to a win win. Once you have a deal on Kashmir, it will change the way Pakistan has to conduct itself and will actually makes your borders safer.

 

NPEGASUS

8:12 PM ET

February 8, 2010

Is that so?

Direct_Hex,

I see that you've figured it all out in two steps. Have you considered replacing Mr. Holbrooke and saving the region and the world? Perhaps you should.

In my humble view, however, I'd like to disagree with your analysis. Kashmir is the symptom not the problem in the region. We've seen how the argument of the 'root-cause theory' has fallen flat on the face in Afghanistan after the Soviets withdrew. Kashmir is no different. If Kashmir is miraculously solved, I assure, the military-jihadi complex in Pakistan will raise some new source of discontent to keep itself in business.

I'd also like to add that the Kashmir problem has three components - India, Pakistan and Kashmiris. Turns out it takes more than one hand to wreck a tripartite agreement and India is not the spoiler. Far from it. In the absence of unified political voice in Kashmir and the musical chair played out between the govt and the military in Pakistan, India has no stable partners who can walk the talk. Consequently, Kashmir stands where it is for six decades.

 

DIRECT_HEX

7:28 AM ET

February 9, 2010

You could could replace Holbroke with a Rock and succeed

Really, Holbroke isn't all that he's cracked up to be. Anyone who knows the real deal over his previous missions knows what kind of screw ups he glides over in his diplomatic career cf Bosnia.

In fact those people in the Indian Lobby in washington who thin that they've done a really clever thing by letting him into the region are going to regret it at some stage.

 

DAMONENOLA

12:59 PM ET

February 8, 2010

DRECTHEX is a typical member

of the Pakistan-apologist group that believes in parity for India and Pakistan. This is why he has no problem with India just handing Kashmir to Pakistan under the suspicious idea that doing so will make India safer (which it won't). He is also under the deluded assumption that the ISI (the de facto power in Pakistan for decades) has the same viewpoint on peace as Sinn Fien.

It is important to remember that the Taliban (a Pakistani ISI creation) is creeping on Pakistan's western border and yet the bulk of Pakistan's army is in the border with India? Why is that? Has India ever invaded another country? Has India even made overtures to do so like, for example, Pakistan has? This is the twisted logic of the ISI. The same twisted logic that allows them to protect Dawood Ibrahim and his criminal enterprise and to house rogue nuclear scientist AQ Khan. If the US didn't step in and almost "demand "that Musharraf step down, the country would still be ruled by a man who took power in a coup d'etat with the backing of......wait for it.....wait for it......the ISI! And let's not get started on the numerous bombings/assassinations/attacks on India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan with ISI backing.

Sorry, India should not negotiate with sociopaths, especially the ultra-religious ones. And India should also refuse to listen to those who hold the idiotic Western view that India and Pakistan are the same.

 

DIRECT_HEX

7:24 AM ET

February 9, 2010

It's not a question of parity

Parity has nothing to do with it. If you think a) Sinn fien had parity or b) any interest in negotiating with the brits to achieve a power-sharing agreement, never mind reading history of The troubles you haven't even seen the movie Michael Collins.

ISI may be venal, corrupt and myopic, but they aren't stupid. Once they see the writing of on the wall they will come to the table , if only to keep themselves in a job - cros reference Martin McGuiness

 

DAMONENOLA

2:49 PM ET

February 9, 2010

Yes ISI is not stupid

That doesn't mean they have any interest in negotiating. This again is the same group that chooses to house AQ Khan despite international pressure to bring him to justice. It has sponsored Dawood Ibrahim, another international fugitive. If you believe that bin Laden is hiding in the mountains of Pakistan, then you must agree that he could not have hid this long without some ISI support. The ISI is emboldened to do all of this because of the limited nukes they have and from support from the US and China at the expense of India.

It is this idea of parity between India and Pakistan that has propped up a corroded and corrupt government to the point of allowing it to export terrorism throughout the region.

 

DAMONENOLA

1:07 PM ET

February 8, 2010

IT SHOWS A LOT

that Pakistan's western border has been invaded by it's own creation and yet Pakistan is still sending "troops" into Kashmir and has the bulk of its army on its border with India. It's as if there are elements of the Pakistani government and military that do not care about the Taliban marching east with tremendous ferocity.

And this is the deluded government with which India must negotiate?

 

DIRECT_HEX

7:21 AM ET

February 9, 2010

Sociapaths

I'm glad to see you don't want to negotiate with sociopaths. Does that mean some one is actually going to ban Shiv Sena ate some point? I'm sure lots of Indian minorities who are rightly proud of their country would love to see that happen.

 

DAMONENOLA

2:34 PM ET

February 9, 2010

No, India should not ban political parties

I don't like Shiv Sena, I also don't like the Maoists. But I would not call for the banning of either from the political process no matter how extreme their views are.

BTW, is it any surprise that you equate a far-right Indian political party with insignificant influence to a corrupt intelligence service that has spread terrorism and murder throughout the region (and possibly beyond) and has de facto control over a nation? Comparing Shiv Sena to the ISI is just ridiculous.

 

DIRECT_HEX

7:42 PM ET

February 10, 2010

re: just a far right party?

I'm sure the minorities burned out of their houses really make that distinction

 

GILLLINKMAKER

6:15 PM ET

February 8, 2010

Its worth noting that India

Its worth noting that India has so far been right about what is happening in afghanistan and Pakistan which was predicted one thing is for sure America is to stck in its home grown issue such as working to improve companys like Sauder TV Stands and forgets about the problems its created around the world oil and land is not everything. Its about time the west started listening to countrys like India as they aint wrong.