The Boogeyman Bomb

It sounds like Newt has either been playing a little XBOX or has been watching his kids play XBOX. The recently released video game entitled "Modern Warfare 2" from the Call of Duty series plays out this exact scenario. The Russians launch an EMP in a rocket over the United States which causes a massive blackout. This allows Russian troops to begin a land invasion and military offensive against Washington DC and much of Eastern seaboard.

It a fairly well done game. so much so that it leaves you wondering if it's actually possible. I guess Newt thought so.

It's all in the cost benefit analysis. The cost of hardening our computational infrastruction at this late date far exceeds the likelihood of such an extensive EMP event; whereas, tornadoes, floods, earthquakes, hw/sw obsolescence, malware, etc make headlikes everyday.

If the goal is to 'take out as large a region as possible' -- what was written seems to indicate that it's not going to work... or at least work entirely.

BUT... there is a point to consider...

If the EMP is placed to specifically take out... say, all the electronics/computers on Wall Street and the Chicago exchange.... what then of the havoc induced when all electronic / monetary transactions 'go away'? Seems this is as 'big' a target as taking out electrical generators and the power grid.

During post-apocalyptic 9/11, experts began to fret about the imminent dangers of a terrorist producing a "dirty bomb." Apparently, making a dirty bomb is not all that difficult. Whereas, detonating a nuclear device over the US from a ship offshore would be a much more complex and time-consuming enterprise. Certainly, satellites zoom-in on all vessels floating in the world's deep blues which is how the USSR and US tracked the hijacked Finnish dargo ship, Arctic Sea, off of Cape Verde last August. After ricin was discovered in the mailroom of Senator Bill Frist, bioterrorism became the fear du jour. Talk about terrorists taking out our fragile, antiquated power grid has also produced much wringing of hands. There's also been reports that that al-Qaeda is assembling a fleet of jets to fly covertly across the Atlantic to bomb us. Other worry warts have suggested other terrorist organizations could easily purchase a Russian sub, outfit it with a nuclear device and submerged, undetected, arrive at our shores with a nasty surprise. It would appear that security operations would need to assess all ranking them according to highest probability. Afterall an ounce of prevention etc. It seems we were asleep on that job when three jets were hijacked 9 years ago.

Crippling the US by well targeted EMP weapon would appear to require the technology of talented, 'research' engineers and scientists (adversary superpower) placed in the hands of skilled technicians assembling warheads to airborne vehicles in secret laboratories (a rogue state with advanced aerospace technology) and an anonymous delivery agent (intelligent , suicidal, well organized terrorist organization with no home base but with a 'virtual' global leader). If these team elements exist in today's world, then their coordination is possible and should be considered plausible.
With this scenario, cold war tactics based on retaliation are useless, a lesson obvious from our success in completely identifying, let alone retaliating against whoever was behind 9/1/1. It's apparently still easy to fly airplanes into buildings here, and this EMP scenario doesn't even require a building.
I would recommend adopting a long range strategy based on more localized power plants such as numerous small nuclear plants (a certain branch of our military is good at this) with instantaneous disconnectivity from 'the grid'. Such systems may be defeated locally but the effects are contained. This kind of architecture is successfully implemented aboard aircraft hit by lightning. Of course this might crimp the free flow of energy throughout the grid to the detriment of energy traders and inter-state energy providers with strong lobbying ability.
Thus, a corollary effort is required, which is to replace a large number of our legislators with scientists and engineers. True geeks are unusually objective and, having a career outside of politics, are less likely to be influenced by lobbyists. China began doing this in the 70's using their politically motivated academic system to retool their own infrastructure. Today they practically dominate the world's economy. If students from a couple of Chinese universities can hack Google who knows what some other talented Chinese 'research' engineers and scientists are doing in their spare time?

When Vikto Belenko defected to Japan with his Mig 25 in 1976, US Air Force officials were surprised and derisive, when they found that the Mig used vacuum tubes. Vacuum tubes were thought to be an inferior technology to transistors.
Slowly the US analysts realized that the purpose of vacuum tubes in a fighter aircraft was to survive EMP effects from nuclear weapons. The Russians were designing fighter aircraft that could survive in a nuclear threat environment. The supposedly behind the times Russian air fleet would still have been operational while the NATO airfleet would have had its electronics fried.

What is the down side from taking appropriate precautions?

In 1999 when we were bombing Yugoslavia, Russian leaders threatened us with an EMP attack.

So while it might be unlikely that Iran or a rogue terrorist organization could mount an effective attack, it is still entirely possible if you consider Russia and China. As an example, what if China invaded Taiwan and we (as we are obligated to do) got involved? Would China risk a nuclear war when they could simply detonate a couple of nukes 100 miles up and take out our power?

On the Iran front.... Did anyone notice that Iran has been testing ship-launched ballistic missiles and detonating them at apogee? This precisely matches the profile of an EMP attack.

Sharon

For a journal that I respect I am disappionted that you didn't dig a bit deeper on this subject, that you accepted the view of a reporter (Michael Crowley of "New Republic") who has no professional experience on the subject of EMP and rather derisively dismissed my work as coming from a "science fiction" writer.

First may I suggest a long hard look at recent NASA/NOAA reports on the potential of a solar generated EMP-2 event. Several weeks back I addressed a group at NASA's Langley Center and they are taking the subject quite seriously, in fact see the threat level as very real both for nuclear attack and a natural phenomena event.

Your article states that even if an entire state was taken out by an EMP event surely it would not be catastrophic and quickly recoverable. Take a closer look at numerous studies as to what would transpire in hospitals and nursing homes for starters. We view Katrina as one of the greatest disasters to hit modern America. . . the casaulty rate from the hurricane would pale in comparison to the massive die off of our sick and elderly dependent on electrical power for medical support even if interrupted but for a few weeks. Also, I do hope you ar not flying over that state in an Airbus 330 or Boeing 777, two aircraft shown to have the potential of catastrophic software failures when presented with a major EMP scenario. It is easy to be cavalier about potential losses until it is you, your family, or a beloved elderly parent or child highly dependent on high tech medical support that is in the cross hairs.

Next of course you had to cite Crowley of "New Republic" (hardly an unbiased format) who with one smear article is now considered a "counter expert" on the subject. His knowledge of the subject was biased, abysmal, unprofessional, even childish and as is so typical, he never contacted some of us who see the situation in an entirely different light to offer a balanced view. Perhaps Michael Crichton was right about him all along.

And finally you dismiss me as merely a "science fiction writer." I'd have appreciated a more accurate background report. I hold a Ph.D. in history with a specialization in military history and the history of technology from Purdue. As a trained historian I spent a year researching the topic before I even began to write my book which yes, I did model on the classic "Alas Babylon" or the film "Testament" both of those works dire realistic warnings about the threat of thernonuclear war. My intent was merely to bring the subject before a public that generally has little real information on the subject or distorted information as presented in your article. I am surprised because as a professional historian I was trained to garner commentary from anyone I did write about and double check all my facts. Citing my work from second hand sources is hardly fair or professional. At the very least a look at the hundreds of positive comments on my book, many of them from experts in the field of both nuclear war fighting strategy and also environmental solar concerns would have been helpful to balance out your article.

A final note. May I suggest a close look at the book "The Sun Kings" by Clark. An excellent study o 19th century solar astronomy and the potential results of a major solar flare.

I do hope you reply

Sincerely

William R. Forstchen Ph.D.
Professor of History and Faculty Fellow
Montreat College