How Genocide Became a National Security Threat

And what Barack Obama should do about it.

BY MICHAEL ABRAMOWITZ, LAWRENCE WOOCHER | FEBRUARY 26, 2010

Deep into his Feb. 2 congressional testimony on the U.S. government's annual threat assessment, Director of National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair raised the specter of an unfamiliar threat -- far from the terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and cyberattacks that the rest of his discussion focused on. "Looking ahead over the next five years, a number of countries in Africa and Asia are at significant risk for a new outbreak of mass killing," Blair told Congress. "Among these countries, a new mass killing or genocide is most likely to occur in Southern Sudan."

Blair's testimony was an underappreciated breakthrough. Genocides and mass atrocities have traditionally been seen by the U.S. government as tragedies, but little more. President Bill Clinton never seriously contemplated intervening in Rwanda. George W. Bush's administration insisted that the violence in Darfur was genocide, but made little mention of any threat to U.S. interests arising there. Now, Blair has tacitly acknowledged what human rights groups and humanitarians have long insisted -- that mass killings are not only moral issues, but are threats to the national security of the United States. And in the world of politics, that subtle shift could make a big difference.

Genocide's negative consequences for the United States are increasingly plain. Mass violence destabilizes countries and entire regions, threatening to spread trafficking in drugs, arms, and persons, as well as infectious disease pandemics and youth radicalization. When prevention fails, the United States invariably foots much of the bill for post-atrocity relief and peacekeeping operations -- to the tune of billions of dollars. And even as Washington is paying, America's soft power is depleted when the world's only superpower stands idle while innocents are systematically slaughtered.

This reality has become increasingly stark in recent years, and it is finally catching Washington's attention. In fact, Blair's statement was just one of several signs that Barack Obama's administration is rethinking Washington's response to genocide. This month's Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), a touchstone planning document for the military, states that the Defense Department should be prepared to offer the president with options for "preventing human suffering due to mass atrocities or large-scale natural disasters abroad." Although the previous QDR in 2006 also referred to humanitarian missions, it did not contemplate responses to mass atrocities. So now for the first time, the military should begin a much-needed process of strategic thinking about preventing genocide.

Even more promising, the White House has moved quietly in the last several weeks to create a high-level interagency committee at the National Security Council aimed at anticipating and preventing mass atrocities. This committee should force policymakers to grapple with the risk of mass atrocities early on, before crises get out of control. It should take control of a process now fragmented between agencies, helping combat the bureaucratic lethargy and ad hoc decision-making that has characterized past U.S. responses to genocide.

Of course, it is reasonable to ask whether these modest steps are truly meaningful when contrasted with the complex roots and incalculable impacts of genocidal violence. Although it's true that attention and organization do not guarantee foreign-policy success, their absence makes it nearly impossible. A year ago, the Genocide Prevention Task Force, chaired by former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and former Secretary of Defense William Cohen, produced a blueprint of practical steps that the U.S. government could take to prevent genocide and mass atrocities. And it urged just the kinds of actions the administration has taken in recent weeks.

More is needed, of course, after the administrative structures are in place. As the Albright-Cohen task force found, leadership is the "indispensable ingredient" in preventing mass atrocities. Following Blair's statements this month, Obama and his most senior advisors should send even clearer signals to their subordinates and to the international community that preventing mass atrocities advances U.S. national security interests. One immediate move in this direction would be for the National Security Strategy now being prepared by the White House to declare the prevention of genocide an important U.S. objective. The president should then give a major public speech to explain to the American people why such a new approach is necessary.

The test case for all of this could come sooner than we think, as the Obama administration navigates the grave risks posed to civilians in Sudan. With violence down in Darfur and a peace treaty in the works between the main rebel group there and the government in Khartoum, Sudan no longer makes front-page headlines. But the situation for civilians across Africa's largest country is no less dangerous in the coming years, not least because 2.7 million Darfuris continue to live in displaced-persons camps. Moreover, north-south tensions, still boiling after decades of civil war, will come to a head over the next year. National elections in April and a referendum next January on southern independence could rekindle the mass, often ethnic violence that has plagued the country since independence in 1956.

Obama spoke of his commitment to do "everything we can to prevent and end atrocities like those that took place in Rwanda, those taking place in Darfur" at the Holocaust Days of Remembrance ceremony last April. Fulfilling his commitment will mean, among other things, personally engaging his special envoy for Sudan, the State Department, and the Pentagon to forge a strategy to prevent a foreseeable catastrophe.

The top intelligence officer of the United States is now on record warning of possible genocide. Is the rest of the administration up to the task?

PETER MARTELL/AFP/Getty Images

 

Michael Abramowitz is director of the Committee on Conscience at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum. Lawrence Woocher is senior program officer at the U.S. Institute of Peace. The museum and the institute, together with the American Academy of Diplomacy, convened the Genocide Prevention Task Force. The views expressed here are the authors' own.

DEPETRIS@WORDPRESS.COM

3:52 PM ET

February 27, 2010

Good in Concept, but perhaps too Idealistic?

Preventing genocide and mass-killing before the problems surface is certainly a worthwhile goal. As the world's last remaining superpower, the United States especially has a moral responsibility to make sure genocide (like the one that took place in Rwanda and the Congo, and the one currently taking place in Darfur) does not occur. And even if mass-killing does occur, the United States and its European allies should make sure that the violence does not spread to other areas, thereby destabilizing an entire region.

My only fear with creating an executive-level task force is the precedent it would create for the U.S. With American troops still in Iraq and Afghanistan, and with thousands of troops stationed in Europe and South Korea, does Washington have the resources needed to actually stop conflict before it happens? And what if a task force was created? Does this mean that the U.S. is expected to stop each and every civilian conflict from breaking out? If so, that is a heck of a hill to climb, even with the world's strongest and efficient military.

Tackling genocide is a complex problem. You cannot simply lump all genocides into one arena, and hope that a single remedy will somehow tame the killing. While the mass slaughtering of civilians is especially gruesome and against the entire fabric of civilized society, it does not start out this way. All conflicts stem from a specific grievance. The reason that Sudan has been in a civil war for close to fifty years is because of ethnic differences (of course, an autocrat as President does not help the situation either). Sometimes, genocide stems from the rise of a single leader, like Adolf Hitler or Pol-Pot in Cambodia, in which case regime-change may be the best option.

If indeed the President creates a genocidal task-force, I hope he understands that the U.S. cannot do everything. In some cases (when a conflict is already ongoing) making sure it doesn't expand territorially is a better geopolitical strategy . In instances where a genocide hasn't yet surfaced, the U.S. and its allies are right to step-in and negotiate between the parties. Sometimes it will work, and sometimes it won't.

Idealism is great. Everyone in this world wants to prevent the mass killing of civilians before they happen, for the sake of both humanity and peace. But we have to remember that idealism is not always achievable. Too much idealism often makes resentment more profound. And sometimes, too much idealism can lead to costly mistakes (a.k.a. Iraq).

-Dan DePetris

http://www.depetris.wordpress.com

 

RYDDLE

7:41 PM ET

February 27, 2010

Careful...

In theory, you are correct. However, agreeing with Dan DePetris, the task is, as of now, almost impossible. US politics have shifted through the years between overextension and isolation; as of now, they are spread thin, and Americans turn more and more against war and intervention. To pick one more area for the US to intervene will make matters worse; plus, personally, I am kind of sick of the US handling most the crisis and situations abroad while the rest of the world takes the advantage of this, and gives little, if any, help.
Oscar

 

AVIEN

6:06 AM ET

February 28, 2010

Comment

Idealism is great. Everyone in this world wants to prevent the mass killing of civilians before they happen, for the sake of both humanity and peace. But we have to remember that idealism is not always achievable. Too much idealism often makes resentment more profound. And sometimes, too much idealism can lead to costly mistakes