The Conventional Wisdom Isn't Always Wrong

Five things you think are true that are.

BY JOSHUA KEATING | MARCH 5, 2010

THE IRAQ WAR WAS A MISTAKE

The challenge: With no weapons of mass destruction found and nearly 5,000 coalition casualties, you would think that those behind the invasion of Iraq would be keeping quiet these days. But nonetheless, a number of prominent figures have sallied forth to argue that, in spite of everything, going to war in Iraq was the right call. Some -- like Tony Blair or Karl Rove -- clearly have an interest in defending their own role in the conflict. But with casualties declining and national elections taking place, they're no longer alone.

In a recent cover story, Newsweek argued that "something that looks mighty like democracy is emerging in Iraq," which has the potential to create a "whole new era in the history of the massively undemocratic Middle East." Could George W. Bush one day be seen as this era's Harry Truman, unpopular during his own tenure but ultimately vindicated by history?

The CW: Not likely. While few are shedding tears for Saddam Hussein, there's not much evidence to suggest that his removal made the world safer -- or that ousting him in this manner was worth the exorbitant cost in blood and treasure. The other two charter members of the axis of evil -- Iran and North Korea -- are still ruled by anti-American autocrats with fast-developing nuclear programs, and Iran, if anything, has been strengthened by the replacement of its archenemy with a reasonably friendly Shiite-dominated government.

The war has not exactly created a tidal wave of democracy either. Democracy has actually declined around over the last three years, according to U.S. NGO Freedom House. Early hopeful developments in the Middle East have not panned out either. Following the much-vaunted Cedar Revolution, Lebanon's government has returned to its normal state of dysfunction. After some overtures, Libya's Muammar al-Qaddafi has resumed his provocations. And the bloodshed continues in Israel and the Palestinian territories.

The bottom line is that thousands of American lives and trillions of dollars were spent to turn one admittedly barbaric dictatorship into a semidemocracy addled by sectarianism and extremist violence. Doesn't seem worth it.

STEPHEN JAFFE/AFP/Getty Images, ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images, MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/AFP/Getty Images, AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP/Getty Images, GOH CHAI HIN/AFP/Getty Images

 

Joshua Keating is associate editor at Foreign Policy.

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FREETRADER

1:24 AM ET

March 6, 2010

Conventional Wisdom

May be right, wrong, or indifferent, but a simple rehash of the CW isn't terribly convincing of anything.

 

JAGUAR6CY

11:24 AM ET

March 13, 2010

Conventional wisdom is an excuse to avoid thinking

I think it is time to play a strategy game called “what would you have done”. Had you been President at the time of 9/11 the world would have been a very dangerous place. Historically weapons of mass destruction were held only by nation states, all of whom could be counted on to have some interest in self preservation. Those weapons also required a complex, expensive and trackable delivery system, which only a nation state could provide. This produced a mutual chess draw environment with all players locked in place. But Islam smashed the board and broke the international stalemate. Islam provided a simple, self contained and suicidal delivery system. Suddenly every town and city in the country was open to attack with no available defense. Any President would have only one option. If attacks cannot be stopped, then they must be prevented. As a result, with every intelligence service in the world agreeing that Iraq had those weapons, a President could not take the chance of being wrong. The only sane choice would be to remove the supplier of the threat because the threat itself cannot be defended against and cannot even be traced back. If the Intelligence community was wrong, then the president would be pilloried, defamed and ridiculed by the press. And “journalists” are now enjoying every minute of it. But that is far better than being a president who sat placidly by while New York, Chicago or San Francisco disappeared in a puff of smoke. “Journalists” would have happily taken that risk, with your lives. Mistaken decision yes, wrong decision, no

 

CHENEYS_PACEMAKER

8:51 PM ET

March 13, 2010

Bush knew Iraq didn't have WMD

What you say would be true if in fact, the Bush Administration truly believed that Iraq had WMD and that they were an imminent threat to the US. As I recall, every time the Administration made a wild assertion about either Iraq's culpability in 9-11, attempts to acquire uranium, or their existing arsenal, sober minds would dismantle their argument and in most cases, disprove them entirely. That didn't matter to Bush and Co. They would simply replace one rationale for war with another one, usually within a single day of their previous rationale being disproved. What I and possibly others though would happen would be that upon the invasion, the US Military would find enough WMD in the country to make a plausible case that Iraq had enough WMD to weakly justify the invasion, and during that time of extreme paranoia most of the US population would go along. It was amazing to find that the tyrant Sadam Hussein was more honest about the status of Iraq's WMD than George Bush. They have eternity to spend together.

 

PAMPL

6:44 PM ET

March 6, 2010

In Defense of Newsweek

If I'm remembering that article right, they weren't really arguing that the whole Iraq war was worth it, and weren't *really* trying to argue it was the dawn of a new age of democracy, just that Iraq wasn't falling into anarchy after all. I guess that might just be me projecting my own thoughts onto the article, but if it wasn't then it doesn't contradict the CW that Iraq was a mistake overall

 

NAZIA

7:26 AM ET

March 7, 2010

Crime Vs mistake

If civilized nations mass murdered and destroyed any country then it comes in the circle of mistake and when third world adopt safety measure it is called crime against humanity.
Western conventional wisdom is mostly linked with its media .They never go in depth what their rulers and strong groups are doing in under ground activities.
They listen main news channel and make a common perception about others.
That is all.
US used nuclear bombs against Japanese civilians
It was mistake.
US funded jihadi organizations more than 15 years.
it was another blunder.
US attacked Iraq and destroyed its infrastructure.
it was repetition of mistakes.
Can anybody tell me that this is same type of mistake is being repeatedly in Pakistan is product of last mistakes or new mistake strategy is implementing in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

 

FREETRADER

10:43 AM ET

March 7, 2010

Nazia, you have

A lot of, um, interesting opinions that you are attempting to pass off as conclusions. It is too bad that your inability to write English or, apparently, to think clearly in any language makes dicussing your views impossible.

 

_YOURSTRULY_

1:52 PM ET

March 13, 2010

When will Pakistanis stop blaming others for their own bigotry?

Doesn't look like you are old enough to have experienced much of Pakistan's history.
Pakistan, from the morning after of its inception, has reveled in bigotry and hatred.
Educated and illiterate alike, have for over sixty years, had nothing else to do but practise hatreds. Religious hatreds, provincial hatreds, class hatreds and all other reasons not to tolerate each other.

Religious bigotry and intolerance is enjoyed by every Pakistani as fulltime indulgence.
Including people like you. When was last time, or the first time, you said anything against the proof of religious bigotry which appears on all Pakistani government documents?
You'll say what?

You can go here and read Section 16 of Pakistan's passport application, then come back and tell us how and why a state deep up to its eyeballs in religious bigotry will be around for much longer?

http://www.pakistan-embassy.org/forms/A%20form%20fillable.pdf

Pakistanis have cuddled with snakes, religious and provincial bigots, for all its life.
Now these snakes are biting back and Pakistanis are blaming everyone else except themselves, for their wrong choices and judgments....

 

TWISTED_COLOUR

6:50 PM ET

March 13, 2010

"Doesn't look like you are

"Doesn't look like you are old enough to have experienced much of Pakistan's history.
Pakistan, from the morning after of its inception, has reveled in bigotry and hatred.
Educated and illiterate alike, have for over sixty years, had nothing else to do but practise hatreds. Religious hatreds, provincial hatreds, class hatreds and all other reasons not to tolerate each other."

Not unlike India, just smaller.

 

BACKSTREET BOY

9:47 AM ET

March 7, 2010

American hegemony is receding

Not in next century. It's in fact an biased remark. China will outdo American hegemony within some decades., it's for sure. You keep watching.

 

CUPPA

6:55 PM ET

March 8, 2010

China

China has always been an important power in international affairs, but it would be very funny to say China will bury us in a decade or so. China has very many structural problems. If anything, you'll look as funny as the guy who thought the Soviet Union or Japan was going to bury us.

 

NAZIA

6:44 AM ET

March 8, 2010

differerence between author and commentator

freetrader

I am not in above section of FP but on lower rank of comments.
You got my point that is my target.
Whenever I will get ability to right in English I would promote to superior section.
Thanks for your guidance and free advice in US culture

 

FREETRADER

9:47 AM ET

March 9, 2010

Nazia

Well, thanks, I guess.

 

LTCMIKESR

11:05 AM ET

March 9, 2010

String of Comments

Please pay little attention to people such as Freetrader. Your comments were pretty well understood, even though I'm sure English is not your first language. I welcome all comments and try to understand the commenters point, though I am not agree.

 

JKOLAK

11:57 AM ET

March 8, 2010

Regardless of the WMD fiasco,

Regardless of the WMD fiasco, Iraq today is a better place than it was.

Doing the right thing is worth whatever it costs. You can't put a price on that. US soldiers working the streets of Iraq today say it was worth all the sacrifice.

 

CHENEYS_PACEMAKER

9:09 PM ET

March 13, 2010

Re: Regardless of the WMD fiasco

Your comments is premised on the idea that Bush and Co. truly believed that Iraq and its supposed arsenal were an immediate threat to the United States. Anyone who was objectively following the administrations actions during the buildup to the Iraq invasion could see that they were determined to go to war, regardless of evidence came out of the ongoing inspections of Iraq's potential WMD facilities and storage areas and interviews with credible Iraqi scientists who offered proof that there was, and for all purposes had never been a real nuclear program in Iraq. Furthermore, the Bush Administration openly bullied and threatened anyone who challenged them on any of their lies. These were not the actions of an administration that was soberly trying to size up the potential threat and take the wisest course of action. This was a belligerent administration with their eyes on the mid-term elections, control over vast reserves of oil, vengeance, and a place in history as a dashing military conqueror, like Napoleon.

 

ERIC CHEN

2:50 AM ET

March 15, 2010

Cheney's Pacemaker's premises wrong

1. As leader of the free world since WW2, the US has domestic and global security responsibilities. In our global role, the US was the main enforcer against Saddam's Iraq after 1991. 2. Saddam's Iraq was in violation since 1991. After the 1991 war, it was not the West's responsibility to prove Saddam's guilt. Rather, it was Saddam's Iraq's responsibility to prove its innocence - on multiple fronts, not just nuclear arms (and, yes, it is well-established that Saddam's Iraq had a nuclear program) or even WMD - according to the standards set forth by his surrender and the UN resolutions. Saddam's Iraq easily could have satisfied those conditions in 1991, but instead, Saddam chose to subvert the process in the 1990s and exacerbate his situation with actions against his own people. The standards were made increasingly stringent in response. (See http://www.un.org/Depts/unscom/Chronology/chronologyframe.htm.) Saddam knew in 2002 he was being given a final chance to meet the standards, but Saddam's Iraq failed again to meet the standards required to prove its innocence. As you may recall, the debate in 2003 was not whether Saddam's Iraq had adequately met the standards, because it did not. While Saddam's Iraq was failing again, the debate was whether to allow more time than originally allocated. With a 300K+ multi-national force in position, President Bush made the decision to enforce according to the original timeline, similar to President Clinton making the decision independently of the UN to bomb Saddam's Iraq in 1998. Bottom-line is that Saddam's Iraq was in violation of its commitments and UN resolutions, and after 12 years of escalating enforcement and failure, the only level of enforcement remaining was regime change.

 

DEFANNIN

5:04 AM ET

March 9, 2010

My CW: The Puppet government will not survive

The puppet government which the US set up in Iraq will not survive the US pull out. We are propping up this government. The only thing it represents is US interest. Once we are out a "strong man" will take over. It is the only way to keep the competing interest from killing each other. Or the country will break apart. Shia, Sunni and Kurds. The Shia will side with Iran, and the Kurds will be battling Turkey.

The US won't care until it endangers the oil flow.

 

NSC LONDON

8:26 AM ET

March 9, 2010

What about the oil?

If you believe, as I do, that the primary objective driving the Iraq invasion was to put Earth's second-largest oil field under the control of western civilisation, particularly given that Gawahar Field is drying up, then the Iraq war was a tremendous success. Democracy in Iraq is not necessarily a good thing. We westerners often make the mistake of assuming that other cultures want democracy, when in fact many want Sharia regimes. Perhaps we should respect these differences, as insane as they may be?

 

NSC LONDON

8:28 AM ET

March 9, 2010

To Allan Green

Who believes that democracy in Iraq will have some sort of contagious property in the region, I think you're overly optimistic! Nothing in Islam supports the notion that the religion and democracy are compatible. Islam is a political system that is a competitor of, not a complement to, any other political system.

 

SAMK1

10:05 AM ET

March 13, 2010

Your arguments are dishonest.

"The war has not exactly created a tidal wave of democracy either."

This is a strawman argument. You pick an arbitrarily high standard ("tidal wave") for your own benefit.

"Democracy has actually declined around over the last three years, according to U.S. NGO Freedom House."

None of that decline over the last three years was in the Middle East, according to the Freedom House.

And why 3 years? An honest analysis would look at the Middle East over the last 7 years.

"Following the much-vaunted Cedar Revolution, Lebanon's government has returned to its normal state of dysfunction."

According to the Freedom House, Lebanon is MORE free today than it was in 2003.

"After some overtures, Libya's Muammar al-Qaddafi has resumed his provocations."

Libya gave up its nuclear weapons program, and you're arguing that it wasn't worth it because Qaddafi hugged the released terrorist.

Joshua Keating,
I've started a list of dishonest people. You're the first person on it.

 

CHENEYS_PACEMAKER

9:21 PM ET

March 13, 2010

RE: Your arguments are dishonest

A tidal wave of democracy is not far from the Administrations actual statements in selling us the war. As I recall, Cheney said something to the effect that once democracy begins unfolding in Iraq, the non-democratic regimes in the region will fall like dominoes and a wave of democracy will sweep over the Middle East. I say that in the present context, falling like dominoes, waves of democracy and a tidal wave aren't too different. Its fair to hold them to the standards of the hyperbole they used in selling us the Iraq disaster.

 

ERIC CHEN

5:42 AM ET

March 14, 2010

Democracy in Iraq a Clinton objective

President Clinton, Oct 1998:
The United States wants Iraq to rejoin the family of nations as a
freedom-loving and law-abiding member. This is in our interest and that
of our allies within the region.
The United States favors an Iraq that offers its people freedom
at home. I categorically reject arguments that this is unattainable
due to Iraq's history or its ethnic or sectarian make-up. Iraqis
deserve and desire freedom like everyone else.
The United States looks forward to a democratically supported
regime that would permit us to enter into a dialogue leading to the
reintegration of Iraq into normal international life.
. . . The evidence is overwhelming that such
changes will not happen under the current Iraq leadership.

 

SHERIFFFRUITFLY

10:13 AM ET

March 13, 2010

Iraq war mistake is "conventional wisdon"? hahahaah!

Nine years after the fact? BWAHAHAHAAHAAA!!

We went literally for YEARS with the idiot media shamelessly either ignoring or actively questioning the patriotism of those who said ALL ALONG that it was a mistake. After the relentless media wardrumbanging, NOW you call it "conventional wisdom" that it was wrong?

So basically, in the best-case, the media is a bunch of war-mongering retards that needs ten years to get something right, nd never acknowledges its decade-long error.

Not sure I would put this up as a defense of "conventional wisdom".

 

CHENEYS_PACEMAKER

9:26 PM ET

March 13, 2010

I Agree

That's exactly how I feel. W was basically an 11 year old kid strutting around in a military flight suit from 9-11 until the end of his first term, and Republicans nearly got his face on Mount Rushmore. Sadly, it took a disaster like Katrina in order for the majority of Americans to finally realize that he really wasn't up to the task of being president. Where were all of the Tea Baggers then?

 

JAKESENSE

7:25 PM ET

March 13, 2010

China

It's absurd to suggest that China pulled people out of poverty "by their bootstraps". China did it in large part because of policies in the west to shift capital out of the US and spread it throughout the world, through the WTO, IMF, etc. US policies which hamper growth and encourage capital to move to China have had more to do with China's growth than China's policies itself.

 

FILBERT

9:25 PM ET

March 13, 2010

THE IRAQ WAR WAS A MISTAKE

Unbelievable that FP is so adept at explaining the ineffable. The war was personal for GB. It was a miscalculation by not going after Al Queda in Afghanistan/Pakistan in that moment. It energized a marginal movement and gave it life, credibility, and endurance for who knows how long by delivering the message that Islam was the target. A war based on a lie is OK then because it sorta, kinda accomplished what it was supposed to?
This is not to say that going into in Iraq at the right time and under the right circumstances would not have been strategically right. This unilateral action highlights how the only superpower, when wrong, can still be wrong in the end. Mission Accomplished.

 

ERIC CHEN

5:14 AM ET

March 14, 2010

Operation Iraqi Freedom was/is justified

President Obama would do Operation Iraqi Freedom, too. How do I know? The liberal criteria, from Clinton and Bush, that led to OIF are the same liberal criteria President Obama articulated in his Nobel Prize speech for military intervention for "just war" and "imperatives for a just peace".

If you believe OIF was wrong, then what was the right alternative?

Was the status quo the right alternative, ie, maintain indefinitely the 'containment' and sanctions regimen against Saddam's Iraq - maybe bomb them periodically? . . . Or was the right alternative President Bush unilaterally freeing Saddam's Iraq from its commitments and the UN resolutions - and then perhaps empowering Saddam as a 'partner' in the War on Terror, like Musharraf in Pakistan?

The case for OIF evolved through 12+ years and 3 presidencies. The bulk of the case developed during the Clinton administration. President Clinton, Dec 1998: "I made it very clear at that time what unconditional cooperation meant, based on existing UN resolutions and Iraq's own commitments . . . So Iraq has abused its final chance." . . . former President Clinton, Jul 2003: "I thought it was prudent for the president to go to the U.N. and for the U.N. to say you got to let these inspectors in, and this time if you don't cooperate the penalty could be regime change, not just continued sanctions." *

* I recommend reading the rest of Clinton's 2003 take on OIF (you'll need to scroll down): http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0307/22/lkl.00.html

Don't forget, WMD was only one of many reasons for OIF. I suggest reviewing the AUTHORIZATION FOR USE OF MILITARY FORCE AGAINST IRAQ RESOLUTION OF 2002: http://www.c-span.org/Content/PDF/hjres114.pdf

Also read UN Resolution 1441 (2002): http://www.c-span.org/Content/PDF/UN1441.pdf

 

DKJACK

6:29 PM ET

March 14, 2010

Gore, too

They say, had Gore been president he might very well have gone after Saddam like Bush. He's said to be even more hawkish than Clinton.

I think where we went wrong was emphasis. Sure, Saddam was ripe for picking, but we had another score to settle first. How farcical to have called Pakistan an ally in the War on Terror, when it was and continues to be Pakistan, from civilians to military to government, that provides al Qaeda a safe haven.

Yes, it's Monday Morning Quarterbacking, but I'd love to have seen a joint American-EU-Indian squeeze of Af-Pak as soon after 9/11 as we could have mobilized. And by mobilization, I mean a genuine wartime footing, with sacrifices and commitment on the home front, not Bush's "Go out and shop."

And to the genius who says Pakistan is like a little India, that clever claim belies a total ignorance of the society, culture, history and facts on the ground of the world's biggest democracy. In fact, I envy the Hindu's refusal to put up with Islamist bs. They know their number. Unlike us.

 

DICK63532

8:48 AM ET

March 14, 2010

Monday Morning Quarterbacks

All of you MMQB's should be running for office. You would have to be doing a better job than the big pompous "O"!
I am soooooo tired of him looking down his nose at the American people when he gives one of his "useless" speeches.
He hasn't a clue on what to do as President. He has never held a "real" job and knows nothing about business.
Maybe he should just accept the fact that he is inept and wait for his term to end.

 

DKJACK

6:01 PM ET

March 14, 2010

Don't know if you'd call it conventional wisdom, but...

The article implies that it's conventional wisdom vis-à-vis wishful thinking. Many would like to think that America's goals in Iraq are finally being met, that Iran isn't nuclear capable, that Putin is off the stage, that peace is closing in in the Middle East, that China is still a long way off from major power status.

Invading Iraq was a non-sequitur to 9/11. The fraud of Iraq wasn't about WMDs but about the nexus of Saddam and the 9/11 attacks. But there were strategic considerations that transcended the 9/11 attacks. OK, that's not unlike using Pearl Harbor as a pretext to go after Hitler. (Hitler declared war on the U.S. but never made an overt move against us. He was also warring against our adversary Russia, as Saddam was against our adversary Iran.) So the big problem is, if you're going to commit a fraud for the sake of a higher good (a big assumption about Iraq), then you damn well had better succeed. How do we measure strategic success in Iraq? By the fact that we will have, for the foreseeable future, a garrison in the epicenter of the anti-American Arab world?

Whatever you think about Putin, he means stability and commitment to capitalism in Russia. He's aggressively seeking to restore Russia to great power status at our cost, playing the old spheres-of-influence game, restoring Russian regional hegemony, So what? Russia is a naturally rich country. It want s to prosper. It wants to be a player. That doesn't mean it's an existential threat à la the Soviets.

Same about the Chinese. So the rest of the world is gaining on us. That doesn't mean we're in decline but that finally other peoples are beginning to reap the new age of wealth.

As for the Middle East, Israel is a foreign body under attack by Arab/Muslim antibodies, a response on the lowest biological level and thus not amenable to conscious intervention. Perhaps the solution is generational. As a wise head said recently, the only cure for Arab/Muslim psychopathology is sex, drugs and rock 'n roll. And of course a generous consumerist trough to grow fat and contented from, and TV/Internet to grow addled and enervated from. Like us.

 

ERIC CHEN

2:55 AM ET

March 15, 2010

War on Terror strategy is definitively liberal

"Invading Iraq was a non-sequitur to 9/11."

Not if you're a liberal. See http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/published/esquire2004.htm

 

DKJACK

3:20 PM ET

March 17, 2010

Doesn't matter, Chen

I think the article you link to still addresses Iraq in terms of long-term strategic goals. If you want to engage in counter-history, then I agree the response from Clinton or Gore might very well have been the same as Bush's. And just as much a non-sequitur. To carry the analog with WWII further, one can compare Al Qaeda with Japan and Iraq with Germany. Of course, a big difference was Hitler's unilateral declaration of war against us. We had to invent a pretext to war on Saddam. Allusions to Hitler were the least dishonest, but that wouldn't have been enough, since the only regional threat one could come up with would be Iran. If Hitler had only invaded Russia, we'd never have intervened. 9/11 fell in our laps, like Pearl Harbor. It was as much serendipity for Cheney/Rumsfeld as Pearl Harbor was for FDR. And it was exploited just as fervently.

So, we needed a direct Iraqi threat to US. This is where the Nexus with 9/11 and WMDs came in. The Nexus was pure fabrication, though the public was eager to swallow it. The WMDs were a chimera if not a lie.

When one criticizes Cheney/Rumsfeld (after all, it was their war, not Bush's), it's not as Republican/conservative. One cannot be certain Democrat/liberal wouldn't have attacked Iraq, using the same war-on-the-cheap approach, of hiring it out to Haliburton, Bechtel, Blackwater and their ilk. There may well have been a right-left difference in approach to operations, but there may still have been an Iraq.

What we should have done -- and this is not Monday Morning Quarterbacking, because people were screaming for this at the time -- was:

1. declaration of war to shut up the lawyers
2. full homefront mobilization
3. Powell Doctrine, sending overwhelming force to pursue the 9/11 perps
4. being as good as our word, to pursue them wherever they fled, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, the TBA of S. America, etc.
5. deeming Pakistan not a "partner" but an accomplice to the jihadis
6. enlisting India, giving her carte blanche (including nuclear) to pursue her own strategic goals
7. letting Iran know that they are next
8. inviting the Russians to participate with the offer of a regional sphere of influence
9. expanding our garrison in Iraq, assuring Saddam we'd not topple him if he strengthened his Iranian flank (with those WMDs!) and kept his hands off Israel
10. kill and/or torture for information every jihadi terrorist, wherever they were found, until they all were dead or in custody
12. to prevent a war of attrition, ruthless, repmorseless prosecution of the war -- no "measured response," no "winning hearts and minds," end feckless debates, root out subversive academics, regarded media as the enemy, eliminate all Islamist media
12. capability to garrison all theatres indefinitely -- a tall order but not impossible.
11. a crash program to build out a domestic nuclear power grid

You may argue with the points, which I just throw out there, but they're neither conservative nor liberal, Republican nor Democrat, they're just how to win a war properly. Of course, it's too late know. We've already screwed the pooch. But there may well be a next time.

As politically disastrous as Iraq has been politically, the experience has been a boon for our defense. We have been bloodied in a long war, we have learned, we have toughened. Experience like this cannot be bought at any price -- not with maneuvers, not with war games, not with simulations. Congress hopefully understands this. With proper rotation and funding, our experience will make us the premier fighting force in the world for the foreseeable future. Without it, well, you know what happens to a defense that lies fallow.

 

DKJACK

4:07 PM ET

March 17, 2010

By the way . . .

Thanks for the link, it was a good read.

 

ERIC CHEN

11:24 PM ET

March 20, 2010

COIN and pretext

Re "approach to operations" and "experience has been a boon for our defense."

It's not fair to blame President Bush for the post-war choices in Iraq given that the right, or at least best, choice didn't exist until 2006-07 when COIN became available. The Bush admin did the best it could in Iraq after major combat operations with the doctrine available. But the most harmful effect of the Vietnam War was our military's wilfully poor post-war or occupation capability. Our weakness nearly turned OIF into a catastrophic failure versus sufficiently brutal and intelligent enemies who recognized our post-war occupation as the obvious place to attack. The 2007-08 turnaround in Iraq didn't depend on funding, resources, or manpower; it depended on a fundamental change in philosophy. The genesis of COIN required revolutionaries within the military to form a new doctrine against tremendous internal resistance, the situation on the ground that burned through prevailing doctrine, and President Bush choosing the controversial new strategy when faced by imminent catastrophic failure in Iraq. Could President Bush have forced the COIN revolution sooner? I highly doubt it; even if Bush had entered his presidency planning to destroy the prevailing doctrine of the world's most powerful military and envisioned COIN ahead of the military's brightest unorthodox thinkers, an American Commander-in-Chief isn't a dictator who can turn a hide-bound military inside-out on a whim. Even today, there remains deep resistance to COIN within the military, despite the real-world experience; fortunately, Obama is as much a liberal war president as Bush.

"We had to invent a pretext to war on Saddam."

Op Desert Fox, Dec 1998, was our threshold act of war in the escalating enforcement of the 1991 surrender and the UN resolutions. After the Clinton-ordered bombing of Iraq, regime change became the next step of enforcement . Although 9/11 provided the impetus to resolve the Iraq dilemma ASAP, President Bush didn't invent a pretext to do it. He merely continued where his predecessor left off. Where Clinton in 1998 set regime change in Iraq as US policy and ordered bombing (without UN permission) after Saddam's Iraq failured its "final chance", Bush ordered regime change after Saddam's Iraq failed its for-reals "final chance" in 2003. In effect, Bush moved forward from Clinton's final position in Iraq, not unlike Obama moving forward from Bush's final position in Afghanistan.