
China has apparently decided to let its currency start rising again. There are two objectives. Domestically, a stronger renminbi will help counter inflationary pressure and dampen the excessive growth that is fueling it. Internationally, appreciation will start curbing China's huge current account surplus and thus counter the pressures that are building in the United States and elsewhere to retaliate against China's massive currency undervaluation by installing new barriers against its exports. The overriding issue is whether China will move quickly enough and substantially enough to achieve these goals.
The renminbi is now undervalued by about 25 percent on a trade-weighted basis and by about 40 percent against the U.S. dollar. Every day, China buys about $1 billion in the currency markets, holding down the price of the renminbi and thus maintaining China's artificially strong competitive position. Several of China's neighbors -- including Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, and Taiwan -- similarly intervene to remain competitive with China and thus substantially undervalue their currencies against the dollar and other currencies.
Such currency manipulation is a blatant form of protectionism. It subsidizes all Chinese exports 25 to 40 percent. It places the equivalent of a 25 to 40 percent tariff on all Chinese imports, sharply discouraging purchases from other countries. It would thus be incorrect to characterize a policy response by the United States and other countries as "protectionist" -- such actions should in fact be viewed as anti-protectionist.
Largely as a result of this competitive undervaluation, China's global current account surplus soared to almost $400 billion and exceeded 11 percent of its GDP in 2007, an unprecedented imbalance for a major trading country. This surplus declined sharply during the Great Recession as global demand weakened, but it remained above 5 percent of China's GDP even in 2009. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the surplus is rising again and will hit record levels and exceed the U.S. global deficit by 2014. In a world where subpar growth and high rates of joblessness are likely to remain for some time, China is exporting large doses of unemployment to the rest of the world -- not just to the United States but also to Europe, Latin America, India, Mexico, and South Africa.
If China eliminated its currency misalignment and thus cut its global surplus to 3 to 4 percent of its GDP, that would reduce the U.S. global current account deficit $100 billion to $150 billion. Every $1 billion of exports supports about 6,000 to 8,000 (mainly high-paying manufacturing) jobs in the United States. Hence, such a trade correction would generate an additional 600,000 to 1.2 million jobs. Correcting the Asian currency alignment is by far the most important component of U.S. President Barack Obama's new National Export Initiative. Its budget cost is zero, which also makes it by far the most cost-effective possible step to reduce the unemployment rate and help speed economic recovery.
Such exchange-rate realignment is not without precedent. In 2005, Beijing announced a new "market-oriented" exchange-rate policy and let its currency appreciate 20 to 25 percent. In mid-2008, however, China repegged to the dollar, and the renminbi has ridden it down, taking back about half the previous rise. China has doubled the scale of its currency intervention since 2005, now spending $30 billion to $40 billion a month to prevent the renminbi from rising; on this metric, its currency policy is about one-half as "market-oriented" as when it announced such a strategy five years ago.
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