Beijing Is Key to Creating More U.S. Jobs

How China's unfair currency policies are exporting unemployment all over the world -- and why baby steps won't solve the problem.

BY C. FRED BERGSTEN | APRIL 14, 2010

China has apparently decided to let its currency start rising again. There are two objectives. Domestically, a stronger renminbi will help counter inflationary pressure and dampen the excessive growth that is fueling it. Internationally, appreciation will start curbing China's huge current account surplus and thus counter the pressures that are building in the United States and elsewhere to retaliate against China's massive currency undervaluation by installing new barriers against its exports. The overriding issue is whether China will move quickly enough and substantially enough to achieve these goals.

The renminbi is now undervalued by about 25 percent on a trade-weighted basis and by about 40 percent against the U.S. dollar. Every day, China buys about $1 billion in the currency markets, holding down the price of the renminbi and thus maintaining China's artificially strong competitive position. Several of China's neighbors -- including Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, and Taiwan -- similarly intervene to remain competitive with China and thus substantially undervalue their currencies against the dollar and other currencies.

Such currency manipulation is a blatant form of protectionism. It subsidizes all Chinese exports 25 to 40 percent. It places the equivalent of a 25 to 40 percent tariff on all Chinese imports, sharply discouraging purchases from other countries. It would thus be incorrect to characterize a policy response by the United States and other countries as "protectionist" -- such actions should in fact be viewed as anti-protectionist.

 

Largely as a result of this competitive undervaluation, China's global current account surplus soared to almost $400 billion and exceeded 11 percent of its GDP in 2007, an unprecedented imbalance for a major trading country. This surplus declined sharply during the Great Recession as global demand weakened, but it remained above 5 percent of China's GDP even in 2009. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the surplus is rising again and will hit record levels and exceed the U.S. global deficit by 2014. In a world where subpar growth and high rates of joblessness are likely to remain for some time, China is exporting large doses of unemployment to the rest of the world -- not just to the United States but also to Europe, Latin America, India, Mexico, and South Africa.

If China eliminated its currency misalignment and thus cut its global surplus to 3 to 4 percent of its GDP, that would reduce the U.S. global current account deficit $100 billion to $150 billion. Every $1 billion of exports supports about 6,000 to 8,000 (mainly high-paying manufacturing) jobs in the United States. Hence, such a trade correction would generate an additional 600,000 to 1.2 million jobs. Correcting the Asian currency alignment is by far the most important component of U.S. President Barack Obama's new National Export Initiative. Its budget cost is zero, which also makes it by far the most cost-effective possible step to reduce the unemployment rate and help speed economic recovery.

Such exchange-rate realignment is not without precedent. In 2005, Beijing announced a new "market-oriented" exchange-rate policy and let its currency appreciate 20 to 25 percent. In mid-2008, however, China repegged to the dollar, and the renminbi has ridden it down, taking back about half the previous rise. China has doubled the scale of its currency intervention since 2005, now spending $30 billion to $40 billion a month to prevent the renminbi from rising; on this metric, its currency policy is about one-half as "market-oriented" as when it announced such a strategy five years ago.

ANTONIO SCORZA/AFP/Getty Images

 

C. Fred Bergsten is the director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. This article is updated and adapted from his March 24 testimony to the Ways and Means Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives.

ASGOLD25

4:21 PM ET

April 14, 2010

Poor assumptions

I think it's pretty easy to agree that the PRC's manipulation of its currency has grossly devalued the renmibi and effectively brought about the exportation of jobs from the US, Europe, Japan, and elsewhere. The problem with this article is that the author assumes that, in the event that China allows its currency to float (meaning an approximately 40% appreciation against the dollar), all those jobs that were shipped from other countries to China will return to their native locales. This assumption is likely wrong. Either the cost of goods that are exported from China will rise substantially, or the jobs that manufacture those goods will end up departing China for some other country where wages are lower. Either way, they're not coming back to the US.

Additionally, the strategy outlined by the author is great in theory, but probably won't work out so well in practice. To begin with, the Chinese leadership knows that if it allows the renmibi to float, the likelihood of hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Chinese jobs departing the country for other cheaper destinations is high. The resulting increase in unemployment will put a tremendous amount of pressure on the Communist Party, potentially compromising its survivability as the exchange of economic growth for political freedoms becomes compromised. Any threat to the Party's ability to stay in power is not tenable from a policy perspective.

Finally, the author appears naive of Chinese history and politics. His use of the phrase, "name and shamed" is a perfect example of this. China is currently attempting to reassert itself on the world stage and reclaim its rightful place in the world order. Its policies, which appear arrogant and brash at times, are a result of the more than 100 years of humiliation that the Chinese suffered at the hands of European powers (let's not forget the Opium Wars, Boxer Rebellion, and many Spheres of Influence) and Japanese during that country's period of imperialism. Thus any policy that looks to shame China or brand it an irresponsible power will not lead to a change in Chinese economic policy, but will only serve to further entrench the Chinese in their position. And I'd bet that the Chinese Communist Party will outlast any "coalition" of grieved parties.

 

DAMONENOLA

2:59 PM ET

April 15, 2010

More astute than C. Fred

I'd also argue that China, as a holder of US Debt, would not want to devalue the dollar any further vs. the RMB because the payback would be less.

If the US really wants to press this, it should be ready to payback the national debt owed to China in full (by increasing taxes and/or reducing spending) and to expect more US inflation as the cost of Chinese goods and inputs will increase.

 

STEVEJOBS

5:52 AM ET

April 28, 2010

we are engaged in a struggle with China

we are engaged in a struggle with China that will ultimately prove far more important to the security of the United States than will our skirmishes in Iraq or Afghanistan. The weapons involved are commercial rather than military, and the toll will be in jobs and financial reserves as opposed to bodies, but it is a war nonetheless. At the moment, however, only the Chinese have taken up the fight. We are still clueless. A story in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal is but one of many that proves the case.

p.s. I live in telford PA and i'm looking for part-time jobs for 15 year olds and jobs for 16 year olds that won't interfere with school. i'm 13. i'm willing to do anything but a fun, both evening jobs and weekend jobs would be great. i live in telford but i'm willing to work at other places such as souderton, harlysiville, the farthest place i will work is landsdale or northwales. i don't want it to be more than 30 min. away from telford.

 

SURESH SHETH

9:18 PM ET

April 14, 2010

China has US by the tail

Beijing has been a key to creating more US jobs or loosing less US jobs inversely since mid 1980s to say the least. But American apologists for China had no problem with US businesses moving American jobs to China after US administration and Congress gave China an MFN status, opening the flood gates of cheap Chinese products.

So this problem of China’s unfair trade advantage has been created by US itself.

Let us face it - China was a pariah country in the world just like today’s North Korea until anti-Communist Nixon’s 1972 visit. All the West European and East Asian countries stayed away from China following the US lead until 1972 and embraced China after Nixon’s visit. While US would not give MFN status to Soviet Union (remember Jackson-Vanik amendment?) unless Russia shed Communism, it had no problem giving it to China’s Communist dictators with a capitalist mask. Trade with China expanded by leaps and bounds during 12 years of Republican rule beginning in 1981. After campaigning against butchers of Beijing in 1992 elections, even Bill Clinton became enthusiastic supporter of trade with China once he took lessons in foreign policy from Nixon in early 1993 during a special Whitehouse-arranged meeting. US also promoted China to a super power status by accepting it as a permanent UNSC member.

US businesses were supposed to benefit from huge Chinese consumer market. Instead that theory of American economists and China-apologists has been turned on its head and China has benefited far more from vast American and European markets.

Now China has US by the tail - US businesses are hooked to huge profits that cheap Chinese products generate for them as a walk through any Walmart, Sears or Home Depot filled with cheap Chinese goods attests to and US government is hooked to huge investments that Chinese government makes in US treasuries.

Nixon’s China embrace to counter Soviet Union has come back to haunt US with vengeance just as Reagan's embrace of Islamic fundamentalists came back to haunt US in the form of 9/11 attacks.

Reagan must be squirming in his grave for his Republican predecessor Nixon being responsible for the rise of dictatorial China as a threat to US after Reagan was supposed to have vanquished Soviet Union.

The West will desperately try to reverse the rise of China but will be largely unsuccessful. Little could Mao or even Deng have imagined that their followers will beat capitalists at their own game. Lenin used to say that ’capitalists will sell us the ropes with which we will hang them’. With the West selling such ropes (in the form of technology transfers), China has proved that Lenin quote quite prophetic.

 

DAVE ROGERS

7:41 AM ET

April 15, 2010

US by the Tail

Most aptly put, very excellent points and history lesson. Well done.

 

DAMONENOLA

3:05 PM ET

April 15, 2010

Nixon meeting Mao is not a cause

Nixon met Mao in 1972. However, the Chinese turn around toward market principles began AFTER Mao's death with Deng Xiaopeng in 1978. China became stronger during the Clinton years and a world power in the Bush 43 years.

We could debate the benefits of meeting with Mao in 1972 (I believe it was a positive to fracture the Soviet-Chinese relationship which helped to begin the end of the Cold War). However, blaming Nixon for China's rise today is rather weak. If, after Mao's death, a leader like Mao emerged, China today would be as backward as Cuba.

 

CUPPA

4:53 PM ET

April 15, 2010

lol China alarmists

We're not going to be buried by China. While everyone praised China's 10% growth, economic miracle etc. they fail to realize what is the cause of that growth which is a cause of cheap labor, exports and high savings. Its really a sort of one trick pony that can't keep going on like this. China is like Japan in the 80s, only much much worse.

Basketcase thy name is PRC.

 

LAL QILA

12:10 PM ET

April 15, 2010

One-sided Free Market Economy

"Such currency manipulation is a blatant form of protectionism.

It subsidizes all Chinese exports 25 to 40 percent. It places the equivalent of a 25 to 40 percent tariff on all Chinese imports"

Looks like One-sided Free Market Economy; America exports its jobs and money to import the shoddiest products made in modern history from China and India.

Well done American "leaders" and American management. which sells this nonsense to American simpletons.

I say, re-open factories in Ohio and Michigan and stop this silly One-sided Free Market Economy and give China and India a run for their money, and throw out American "leaders" and American management that has brought America to its knees.

 

BOONA

11:09 AM ET

April 16, 2010

I beg to differ

Personally I really don't see how this is unfair in any way. They are deliberately inflating their money supply to match the economic downturn in the US which destroys Chinese savings and lowers it's citizens purchasing power.

At one point they need to say uncle and stop before they hit a point of no return. The US economy is collapsing and they won't follow suit.

 

THEBLUEAMERICAN

3:52 PM ET

April 16, 2010

the 300 pound gorilla

finally, everyone needs to read this. Especially those in Washington D. C.

 

NOHOMEHERE

9:18 PM ET

April 23, 2010

Russia China joint war games

Why did US give MFN status to China? Was it a form of nation building? Was it a political chess move to break Russia?

 

POLE64

7:30 AM ET

May 13, 2010

Trade with China expanded by

Trade with China expanded by leaps and bounds during 12 years of Republican rule beginning in 1981. After campaigning against butchers of Beijing in 1992 elections, even Bill Clinton became enthusiastic supporter of trade with China once he took lessons in foreign policy from Nixon in early 1993 during a special Whitehouse-arranged meeting. US also promoted China to a super power status by accepting it as a permanent UNSC member.