George H.W. Obama?

That’s what Rahm Emanuel thinks. We asked nine experts to weigh in with their own reactions.

APRIL 14, 2010

Now that Barack Obama's nuclear-security summit has concluded, the world is taking a fresh look at the U.S. president's foreign policy. Even the White House chief of staff is having his say. In Wednesday's New York Times, Rahm Emanuel went on the record with this assessment of his boss's worldview.

"Everybody always breaks it down between idealist and realist," Emanuel said. "If you had to put him in a category, he's probably more realpolitik, like Bush 41 ... He knows that personal relationships are important, but you've got to be cold-blooded about the self-interests of your nation."

This of course reflects Obama's own praise for George H.W. Bush's foreign policy going back to the presidential campaign.

We asked a panel of U.S. foreign-policy experts for their reactions to Emanuel's comments: So, is Obama a cold-blooded realist? Is George H.W. Bush's presidency a fair comparison? What is the best way to describe Obama's foreign policy? Here's what they told us:

Robert Kagan
Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

I will leave it to the self-described realists to explain in greater detail the origins and meaning of "realism" and "realpolitik" to our confused journalists and politicos. But here is what realism is not: It is not a plan to rid the world of nuclear weapons through common agreement by all the world's powers. And it is not a foreign policy built on the premise that if only the United States reduces its nuclear arsenal, this will somehow persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear program, or persuade China and other reluctant nations in the world to redouble their pressure on Iran to do so. That is idealism of a high order. It is a 21st-century Wilsonian vision. And it is precisely the kind of idealism that realists in the middle of the 20th century rose up to challenge. Realists would point out that the divergent interests of the great powers, not to mention those of Iran, will not be affected in the slightest by marginal cuts in American and Russian nuclear forces.

The confusion no doubt stems from the fact that President Obama is attempting to work with autocratic governments to achieve his ends. But that does not make him Henry Kissinger. When Kissinger pursued diplomacy with China, it was to gain strategic leverage over the Soviet Union. When he sought détente with the Soviets, it was to gain breathing space for the United States after Vietnam. Right or wrong, that was "realpolitik." Global nuclear disarmament may or may not be a worthy goal, but it is nothing if not idealistic.

Tom Malinowski
Washington advocacy director for Human Rights Watch

President Obama is clearly suspicious of grand schemes to remake the world and of policies driven by moral mission. He wants his focus on interests over ideology to stand in contrast with the approach of the second President Bush.

But if we're truly going measure the temperature of Obama's blood, we should start by weighing his words and ideas, not his chief of staff's. We might look at Obama's Nobel lecture, for example, perhaps the fullest expression thus far of the president's worldview. The central argument of that speech was that America's pragmatic goals, whether winning a war, or building sustainable peace, can be achieved only by respecting and championing liberty, law, and human rights. It's too early to say whether Obama will consistently live by that insight. But he was right to express it.

Indeed, as the influence of other nations, such as China, grows and traditional forms of economic and military power become more diffuse, America's willingness to stand up for universal principles will increasingly be the source of its global appeal and comparative advantage. If American foreign policy is to be realistic, it cannot be cold blooded.

Danielle Pletka
Vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute

There is a certain weird irony in the Obama administration's efforts to portray the U.S. president as the successful son George H.W. Bush never had. In 2008, before Rahm Emanuel labeled his boss more "realpolitik, like Bush 41," the Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne memorably announced that in "electing Barack Obama, the country traded the foreign policy of the second President Bush for the foreign policy of the first President Bush."

Those eager to take a cheap shot would remember that among the hallmarks of George H. W. Bush's foreign policy were (hmmm) antipathy to Israel, an eagerness to kowtow to creepy dictators, and a lack of the "vision thing" that will forever relegate him to being that guy Americans elected because they couldn't give Ronald Reagan another term.

But Barack Obama isn't a realpolitician, and I fear he does indeed have a vision. Obama has embraced the foreign policy of an ideologue, a worshipper at the altar of American decline. The framework seems a simple repudiation of American global leadership, a devaluation of alliances, and a penchant for paper agreements and empty dialogue that articulate grand aims (Disarmament! Global zero! Proximity talks!) but ignore the practical threats to the United States that exist in the real world.

Stephen M. Walt
Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs, The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University; contributing editor to Foreign Policy and blogger at ForeignPolicy.com

President Obama has little choice but to be "cold-blooded" about advancing U.S. interests. He inherited an economy in freefall, two ruinous wars, and an America whose international image had been tarnished by his predecessor's incompetence. It was no time for starry-eyed idealism, and Americans ought to be grateful that Obama grasped this essential fact from the very beginning.

Of course, people like Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates had figured this out too, and they spent most of George W. Bush's second term trying to reverse the disastrous consequences of his first four years. It is no accident that Obama kept Gates on, and his foreign policy can even be seen as a more imaginative and energetic continuation of Bush's second term.

There are certain similarities with George H.W. Bush, but also one key difference: Bush 41 was playing a very strong hand. The United States had just triumphed in the Cold War and it looked like the whole world was swinging our way. The elder Bush (and Baker and Scowcroft) played that hand skillfully and managed crises well, but they were holding all aces from the start.

The real question is whether Obama will remain as ruthlessly realistic as America's fortunes improve, or whether he will then succumb to the same sort of ambitious fantasies that doomed his predecessor. Based on what I've seen so far, I'd bet not.

Joseph S. Nye
Sultan of Oman professor of international relations at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University; author of The Paradox of American Power

The Obama administration has referred to a smart-power strategy that combines hard and soft power. A smart-power strategy requires that the old distinction between realists and liberals needs to give way to a new synthesis that might call liberal realism. It starts with an understanding of the strength and limits of American power. Preponderance is not empire or hegemony. As I argue in my forthcoming book, The Future of Power in the 21st Century, the United States can influence but not control other parts of the world.

Power always depends upon context, and in the context of transnational relations (such as climate change, illegal drugs, pandemics, and terrorism) power is diffuse and chaotically distributed. Military power is a small part of the solution in responding to these new threats. They require cooperation among governments and international institutions. Obama seems to understand this well. He focused first on avoiding a global depression and made good use of the G-20. He has reached out to others with a series of adept speeches and symbolic gestures that restored American soft power. He has now made progress on his nuclear agenda, both with Russia and on countering proliferation. I think he deserves good marks for liberal realism, rather than being pigeonholed into one category of the other.

Peter Feaver
Alexander F. Hehmeyer professor of political science at Duke University; contributing editor to Foreign Policy and blogger at Shadow Government

Emanuel's quote is puzzling. President Obama may be more "realpolitik" than George W. Bush in the sense that he has downgraded the place of human rights and support for democracy in his foreign policy. But it is certainly not "realpolitik" to slight the personal relationships of presidential diplomacy -- and it would be hard to identify something more unlike George H.W. Bush than this feature of the Obama approach to foreign policy. In any case, the rewards for this alleged "realpolitik" turn are still hard to measure. President Obama is significantly more popular with the general publics in the other great powers (except possibly in Asia), but if measured cold-bloodedly by American "self-interest," the last President Bush had at least as good and probably more effective and cooperative relations with the governments of those great powers (except possibly with Russia). Relations with Britain, China, France, Germany, India, and Japan were more troubled in 2009 than they were in 2008.

Charles Kupchan
Senior fellow for European studies, The Council on Foreign Relations

In the classic divide between realists and idealists, President Obama clearly tilts in the realist direction. But what is most distinctive about his foreign policy is its absence of ideological clutter. Thus far, Obama has been the consummate pragmatist, guided by three hard-headed questions: What's the problem? How do we fix it? Who will help the United States fix it? Moreover, he seems comfortable working with democracies and non-democracies alike -- as long as they are willing to contribute to the common cause. This problem-solving approach is both sensible and refreshing.

During his first year in office, Obama seemed inclined to govern at home and abroad primarily through his oratory talents and powers of persuasion. With few results to show for his efforts, Obama has switched tracks, and is now in the political and diplomatic trenches, twisting arms, making bargains, fashioning personal bonds with foreign counterparts -- all good news in terms of closing deals and securing deliverables. Heading into the 2010 midterms, Obama needed to have some tangible accomplishments in hand. After the "New START" treaty, the nuclear-security summit, and the improving relationship with China, he now has some. Welcome additions to Obama's list of accomplishments would include China's willingness to appreciate its currency and its readiness to present Iran with a united front in the U.N. Security Council.

Another aspect of Obama's pragmatism is his willingness to take what he can get. The Nuclear Posture Review embraced significant -- but modest -- changes in nuclear doctrine. The same can be said for New START. Obama is well aware that attempts to reach further would likely have invited staunch opposition from the right and imperiled the prospects for Senate ratification of arms control treaties. At the nuclear-security summit, Obama settled for voluntary measures to stem proliferation, not binding commitments. The same applies to limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Although more ambitious and formalized agreements might be more effective, they are, at least for now, out of reach. Obama is right to sense the limits imposed by domestic constraints at home and abroad -- another sign of a president guided by pragmatism.

Michael Lind
Policy director for the economic growth program at the New America Foundation; author of The American Way of Strategy

Rahm Emanuel is right. In many areas, ranging from his caution about escalating the war in Afghanistan to his firm approach to Israel, Barack Obama shows more affinities with the moderate Republican realist tradition of Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon and the first Bush than with the Cold War liberal tradition of John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and Sen. Henry "Scoop" Jackson that spawned the neoconservative combination of hawkishness and crusading rhetoric. This reflects not only Obama's worldview but also the migration into the Democratic Party of many former moderate Republican voters. Their influence is seen as much in the Democratic health-care bill, which rejects New Deal-style social democracy for an approach of subsidizing private insurance that Eisenhower and Nixon pioneered, as in the Obama administration's cost-conscious, realist foreign policy.

Philip Zelikow
White Burkett Miller professor of history at the University of Virginia; former counselor to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice

The most unfortunate aspect of Peter Baker's story was this quote from Rahm Emanuel: "Everybody always breaks it down between idealist and realist." Well, no. At least not me.

Sure, this framing (realist/idealist) is all too common. And since that habit of thought so often spawns both bad history and bad policy, it is a bit unfortunate that Baker and Emanuel have so powerfully reinforced it. But think for a second: If Emanuel were asked to categorize President Obama's health-care policy as either realist or idealist, what would he pick? Wouldn't he say it was both? Or if he was asked to categorize the nuclear nonproliferation agenda that has just dominated the president's week as either realist or idealist, what would he pick? Wouldn't he say it was both? Hmmm. Maybe these labels aren't so helpful after all.

Of course no one wants to be in the "unrealistic" camp. This is why Woodrow Wilson's biographer described his man's vision as simply embodying "a higher form of realism." It was not a silly argument, really, when compared with the power politics that had just produced a catastrophic war. If, on the other hand, by "realist" we mean to say that "realists" don't care about how other countries govern themselves, this is hardly an accurate description even of the very essence of U.S. policy in, say, Afghanistan, much less many other less important countries. Does anyone think the U.S. government is indifferent about how China governs itself (including its commitment to a more open economic model)? I doubt very much that President Obama would align himself with such a definition of his policies, even in private.

In other words, these labels are simply words we use to make an argument in favor of one policy preference over another. Usually the people who like this realist/idealist dichotomy style themselves as "realists." They are making an argumentative contrast. It is another way of saying, "My views are practical, unlike those of some other people."

Of course, though, one can be a practical idealist. Every U.S. president and secretary of state of the 20th and 21st century thought he or she was exactly that. Richard Nixon and his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger may seem like sole outliers, but even they had an ideal vision, elevating stability and managed conflict to being ends in themselves. To Nixon and Kissinger, reacting to a traumatically polarized and turbulent age, "stability" came for a short time to seem like a rather rosy ideal.

As for the analogy to George H.W. Bush's administration, it is flattering to this former servant of that administration, but is nonetheless best put back in the drawer. This sort of reasoning by analogy is tempting but dangerously misleading, including in this case. The argument about cold-blooded realism starts breaking down if one digs into Bush's policies on subjects like rolling back Soviet influence in Eastern Europe, German unification, sending 500,000 troops to confront Iraq over Kuwait, holding elections to settle Nicaragua's future, or developing the North American Free Trade Agreement. It helps to analyze what people thought about those ideas (some of which were regarded as wildly impractical or dangerous, or both) at the time, before everyone discovered how they turned out.

And those who regard Bush 41 as a cold-blooded, unsentimental person neither know him nor his record. Bush's stress on personal relationships came from a pretty warm-blooded person who relied deeply on his instincts about people. (In this sense the apple, in the case of his eldest son, really didn't fall all that far from the tree.) In his "cool" temperament and his clinical empathy, Obama does remind me a bit sometimes of another president, but that would be John F. Kennedy. Then again, people used to make those observations (cold-blooded, etc.) about Nixon's temperament too. Maybe these analogies really are a bit treacherous.

SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images

 

LAL QILA

5:08 AM ET

April 15, 2010

George H.W. Bush-Obama; Yes

Obama is correctly described as a Bush-Obama; his foreign policies are a continuation of the old bad foreign policies that has brought our world to the brink.

Bush-Obama: No Change

 

DTURLU

5:37 PM ET

April 15, 2010

thanks

Obama is correctly described as a Bush-Obama; his foreign policies are a continuation of the old bad foreign policies that has brought our world to the brink.

Bush-Obama: No Change

thank

 

IAN

12:23 PM ET

April 15, 2010

Idealist vs. Realist

How can you possibly consider a President, as Walt says, "ruthlessly realistic" when he thinks he can rid the world of nukes. Or even his whole campaign to become president, the whole "We need change" thing. His whole reach for President was the idealistic, perennial (spelling?) good-guy look that was completely different from Bush. How is any of that realistic at all? His ideas that with diplomacy he can talk Iran or Korea back to the tables, of reseting relation with Russia, etc. All his major plans are idealistic, not realistic. The only realistic part I've seen so far is his speech for the Nobel prize, about using force when he has to. The only "ruthlessly realitic" part of Obama has been that recent speech about possibly using nukes on rogue nations. That's about as ruthless as you can get in this world.

On the other hand, I love how that has been almost entirely ignored. Can you imagine what the media would have done if Bush had said that somewhere? Holy Dirty Bomb, Batman!

 

JJH722

8:27 PM ET

April 15, 2010

reluctant bush defender?

I disagree with most of your assertions--especially because you say his plans are un"realistic" rather than just non-realist. Talking with Iran has generated some benefit. It has certainly improved the prospects of international sanctions. I imagine Obama entered the White House reluctant to bomb the Iranians, so this was the optimal strategy from a REALISTIC perspective. The military brass seems to agree: they say the program could be restarted in only 3 years (and next time round they'd be sure to bury the facilities far enough below the surface). During the presidential debates, Obama simply said that the "notion that not talking to someone is punishment" is ridiculous. And in many ways it is. He never said he expected a utopian outcome. You should talk to people if you have something to talk about. And that's what Obama has done in both the Iranian and North Korean cases. Neither have produced breakthroughs, but Obama hasn't bent over backwards to accommodate either country and has consequently provided himself with a stronger multilateral position. To your last point about Bush: Obama is LIMITING the contingencies under which nuclear weapons might be used. Before he reformulated the policy, the threat towards Iran and North Korea applied to any nation. Hard to see how the media would have reacted differently in Bush's case. And to take a final swipe at dubya, the idea that you can transpose a political system derived from centuries if not millenia of culture onto a hostile population through the barrel of a gun is the MOST idealistic thing I've ever heard of. Bar none.

 

JJH722

7:42 PM ET

April 15, 2010

dump the nukes, eat the cake

Has no American pundit/blogger/talking head ever thought of the obvious fact that if we did succeed at achieving a nuclear free world then the US would be ever MORE militarily dominant than it is today??? And to Kagan's assertion that this denuclearization process represents "idealism of the highest order," I heartily object. If realism is about acting solely based on the national interest, then it can be more of a prism into someone's biases than a coherent ideology. But to most people, idealists like Mr. Kagan included, our basic interests should be clear. Foremost among them (and Dick Cheney agrees with me) is ensuring that terrorists don't acquire nuclear weapons. Now, Mr. Kagan may believe that it's possible to do that in an environment of ever-more proliferation, but I seem to remember him and his cohort rejecting the notion that the Iranian regime could be deterred. So I find it VERY difficult to understand how he plans to deal with a world in which many more nations have the same weapons. Are we to bomb them all? A realist idea Kagan might reject is that attacking these nations would only provoke more rapid proliferation. How he plans to wipe out the Iranian bomb (if it's ever built) is an another question, since the military is clearly unconvinced that a military strike will be sufficient. The goal is idealistic, but the means--mutual arms control agreements negotiated with a guarantee that the US will not foreclose its nuclear weapons until all other nations have done so--have REAL impact and results, even if they aren't technically "realist". Finally, even if the US were to lose all of its nukes and some other nation threatened it with nuclear attack, that nation could still be obliterated with ease. WE HARDLY NEED THE THINGS TO MAINTAIN A DETERRENT--WHY NOT SCRAP THEM AND REAP SUBSTANTIAL THE BENEFITS!?

 

JJH722

8:09 PM ET

April 15, 2010

sometimes the means are an end

i meant to add: sometimes process itself is a good chit for international bargaining. the peace process in the middle east certainly enhanced the US's perceived and real influence while it was still "progressing".

 

GAZEBO

7:54 AM ET

April 16, 2010

Oversimplification

I think, like so very much, this idea that he has to be either a realist or an idealist is perhaps attempting to oversimplify things that have a lot more nuance to them.

For instance, let's take the nuclear agreement with Russia. On its face it isn't much- and in fact it may even be a bad deal for the US, given the numbers. The target numbers mean we remove nukes while the Russians are already under their goal. Done in the name of pure idealism, it's a gamble to eliminate nuclear weapons from the world through example.

But it does a lot more than that. Russia didn't raise a fuss when the new nuclear policy came out and it kept missile defense. They've also become more agreeable to the idea of facing off against Iran. Compared to the uproar when George W. Bush pushed forward with missile defense, that's a significant change.

At the same time that nuclear policy document has done more than just advanced an idealistic goal- it's also worked very nicely as realpolitik. If, as some postulate, the reason Iran and North Korea have pursued nukes is because they're afraid of what we might do, the carrot-and-stick setup makes avoiding nukes useful to them. Further, it causes huge issues for Iran, which we can see with their frenzied declaration that it's a threat. It is- but not the way they're stating. Instead, they will have even more trouble justifying their program and behavior, especially internally where they've spent so much time frightening the populace about what the US might do.

This is something that keeps coming up again and again, both in foreign policy and domestic- Obama is a centrist, not only in liberal versus conservative but also in realist versus idealist. Which shouldn't really be a surprise when you think about what a community organizer does- use big ideals to rally people, and then be prepared to negotiate and manage some give & take in order to achieve whatever you can.

Fairly straightforward, if not straight forward into a pigeon hole.

 

MUSTNOTSLEEP14

1:55 PM ET

April 16, 2010

No Way

George HW Bush is twice the person Obama is, and he towers over the entire current Republican leadership. To compare the two is unfair to GHW Bush. Obama might try to imitate Bush Sr's policies, but he will never have the same understanding of the world that Bush did. I wish we had more great foreign policy presidents, most have been disappointing.

 

THEBLUEAMERICAN

3:11 PM ET

April 16, 2010

Read my lips

President Obama brings a unique mix of idealism and pragmatism to American foreign policy. Inheriting a really difficult situation from the previous administration, President Obama has deftly reshaped how the rest of the world perceives America. Bottom line, America's interests are now more protected as is our security. Isn't that the goal of America's foreign policy? To keep America more secure. I'm good with President Obama taking that call at 3:00 AM in the morning. I'm sleeping well.

 

CJA0880

4:10 PM ET

April 17, 2010

Realism is not a theory of

Realism is not a theory of foreign policy -- it's a structural theory of international relations that predicts how certain states will act based on existing power structures. Realism assumes that nations act either to maximize their power or their security, depending on the version of realism to which you ascribe -- classic realism or neorealism. Another aspect to realism is that the only relations that matter are those between the great powers. Smaller states such as Iran and non-state actors such as terrorists do not figure in realism. Moreover, Dick Cheney believes in using military intervention to actively restructure the system. A realist would argue that such interventions would upset the system's status quo and threaten other states, who would then seek a balance of power by aligning with each other against the aggressor state. In fact, in terms of international relations theory, Cheney is a liberal -- he ascribes to the Wilsonian perception that democratic states can invade non-democratic states in order to spread democratic ideals. Finally, while realism is tepid in including nuclear deterrence as a major pillar of the theory, the balance of power tenet does argue that states will find means to balance the threat of a more powerful state by increasing their own military power. Thus, realism would foresee a nuclear arms race by states who feel their security is threatened -- as some argue Iran does.

 

POLE64

6:53 AM ET

May 13, 2010

Russia didn't raise a fuss

Russia didn't raise a fuss when the new nuclear policy came out and it kept missile defense. They've also become more agreeable to the idea of facing off against Iran. Compared to the uproar when George W. Bush pushed forward with missile defense, that's a significant change.At the same time that nuclear policy document has done more than sazkyjust advanced an idealistic goal- it's also worked very nicely as realpolitik. If, as some postulate, the reason Iran and North Korea have pursued nukes is because they're afraid of what we might do, the carrot-and-stick setup makes avoiding nukes useful to them. Further, it causes huge issues for Iran, which we can see with their frenzied declaration that it's a threat. It is- but not the way they're stating.