Multiple Personality Disorder in Pyongyang

Yes, Kim Jong Il's still in charge. But intrigue at the top is heating up, which may explain some of the bizarre behavior coming out of North Korea these days.

BY CHRISTIAN CARYL | APRIL 19, 2010

View photos of Kim Jong Il surveying steel foundries, goat farms, and more.

On April 14, Kim Jong Il, North Korea's numero uno, bumped 100 generals up the career ladder. The North's official news agency described the move as a noble gesture to mark the birthday of Kim's deceased father, Kim Il Sung. It was the biggest group of senior officers he has promoted in 13 years.

So why would he do a thing like that?

North Korea has been changing a lot over the past few years. The North is no longer quite as cut off from the rest of the world as it is used to be; flourishing trade with China, and a corresponding inflow of goods and information, has seen to that. And, as some discerning experts have shown, over the decades North Korea's reigning ideology has moved ever further away from communism toward the intensely ethnonationalist "military first" worldview of Kim Jong Il -- which turns out to look a lot more like Japanese World War II emperor-worship than the thought of Karl Marx.

These aren't just academic debates either. For all its weaknesses, North Korea remains a paranoid power with a million-man army and nuclear weaponry, capabilities that give it the ability to create enormous mischief in one of the world's strategic flashpoints. (And if we needed any reminding of that, just consider the rising tension over the mysterious sinking of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan.)

All of which leaves the intriguing issue of the real nature of power at the top. We all know who's in charge in North Korea after all: the guy with the platform shoes, the bouffant hairdo, and the paunch. Indeed, it would be hard to think of another country where opposition has been extinguished as thoroughly as it has been north of the 38th parallel. If any place in the world qualifies as an absolute dictatorship, surely the Democratic People's Republic of Korea would be it.

But is it really that simple? Recently I had a conversation with a friend of mine I'll call "Oscar." For a variety of reasons, Oscar doesn't want me to reveal his identity; he consented to be described merely as a "long-time Korea expert." So I'm afraid you'll just have to trust me on this one.

First, just a bit of historical background. As Oscar reminded me, we know today that Stalin's Russia and Mao's China -- neither a slouch when it came to dictatorial control -- actually experienced a great deal of factional push-and-pull at the uppermost levels of government. Stalin succeeded in tamping down the maneuverings of his confederates through the use of random terror, but rivalries within the top ranks of the Soviet Communist Party broke into the open immediately after his death (when several leaders managed to gang up on Stalin's putative successor, secret police chief Lavrenti Beria, and had him shot). Mao unleashed the Cultural Revolution, in turn, precisely in order to undermine (and in some cases eliminate) his internal party opponents.

KNS/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: NORTH KOREA, EAST ASIA
 

Christian Caryl is a contributing editor to Foreign Policy. His column, "Reality Check," appears weekly on ForeignPolicy.com.

JBAYER

6:46 PM ET

April 19, 2010

This reminds me of a movie quote I like ....

V from vendetta -

The inspector is asked what he thinks is going to happen when the people begin marching on the government he responds "What usually happens when people without guns stand up to people with guns."

It's a very sad world that we have a country in such obvious distress and they do not have the foresight to help themselves. It's like taking a Short Term Loan to solve your long term financial problems. Sure, it *might* be a good idea in the short term, but long term you are just asking for trouble.

I really hope that we can reach out to NK and resolve this.

 

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8:28 PM ET

April 19, 2010

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MCMORRIS23

1:00 PM ET

April 20, 2010

The China problem

Very insightful article. I live in and work in South Korea now, so everything that happens in the North is much closer to home to me than it used to be. It is a shame that so many of these terrible regimes like North Korea and Myanmar prosper at the expense of their own people because of China's unscrupulous business endeavors. "Sanctions you say? Go ahead, sanction me."

 

DARRENMONROE

3:03 PM ET

April 21, 2010

The transition of leadership may not be the way you think

I dont think the transition that will eventually happen will happen the way everyone thinks it will. The real question I am wondering about is which countries intelligence and business divisions will be prepared to move carefully on the open opportunities. Because I don't think it will be a smooth transition at all.

Not a major drama but a major "mini civil war" . Also how that may effect economy will they go the Russia way or the China way?

Darren Monroe
Online Business Ideas

 

GRANT

2:06 AM ET

April 24, 2010

I find it highly unlikely for

I find it highly unlikely for there to be any kind of violent 'mini civil war'. For that to happen you need at least two opposing factions with arms and the will to use them. Even if we accept the premise that the North Korean military is not totally united on Kim Jong-Il's successor I doubt that they would resort to violence just yet. As for whether North Korea would follow the route of China or Russia in business I fail to see much difference. Both have a mixture of power and wealth leading to the respective other.

On another note, can I suggest that you not post links here. We have no way of knowing how safe they are.

 

JUSTSHOOTIT

11:54 AM ET

April 22, 2010

 

GRANT

2:01 AM ET

April 24, 2010

I think this article dumbed

I think this article dumbed it down a bit too far. I would hope most people could appreciate the bureaucratic factions without comparing it to a high school.

In any case, there are always factions in a government. Recognizing these domestic sources of conflict should be a key ability of foreign analysts. The question here isn't so much 'do these factions exist?' as much as 'do they have any influence in the system?'.

 

JKCARON

7:41 AM ET

April 26, 2010

DPRK not communist for a long time

Marx's works have been banned from the country for quite some time now (source: Through the Looking Glass).

Not surprising, though. It could give the population some nasty ideas.